Cars

Published on January 23rd, 2017 | by James Ayre

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2017 Electric Car Sales Projections — From You & EV Volumes

January 23rd, 2017 by  

By James Ayre & Zach Shahan

How many electric vehicles will be sold in the US during 2017? Will Chevy Bolt EV sales grow rapidly following nationwide availability in the late summer? What about Toyota Prius Prime sales (if Toyota ever works out its dealership issues)?

What will happen with the Tesla Model 3? Will it launch on time? Will mass production begin this year or not truly until 2018? What about Model S and Model X production and deliveries?

Interesting questions. Ones that make predicting this year’s exact electric car sales figures pretty difficult — or, at least, seemingly so.

However, we got responses from a good number of you on our polls regarding overall electric car & plug-in hybrid (PHEV) sales, Tesla US & global sales, Tesla production by model, BMW i3 US sales, Nissan LEAF US sales, Toyota Prius Prime US sales, Chevy Volt & Chevy Bolt US sales, and Ford Energi US sales. Additionally, our analyst/consultant friends over at EV Volumes have made some overall US electric car sales projections. So, let’s dive into all of these numbers, beginning with charts and stats from our reader community. (CleanTechnica projection sections written by Zach, EV Volumes section primarily written by James.)

60,000—69,999 Tesla Model S Sedans To Be Produced In 2017

The top prediction from readers when it comes to Tesla Model S production was that 60,000–69,000 Model S electric supersedans would be produced in 2017. The exact breakdown in responses was as follows:

How many Tesla Model S sedans will Tesla produce in 2017?
# Produced

Response Percent

20,000–29,999

0.8%

30,000–39,999

1.6%

40,000–49,999

11.5%

50,000–59,999

17.2%

60,000–69,999

23.0%

70,000–79,999

13.9%

80,000–89,999

13.9%

90,000–99,999

3.3%

100,000–109,999

8.2%

110,000–119,999

4.1%

120,000–129,999

0.0%

130,000+

2.5%

50,000—59,999 Tesla Model X SUVs To Be Produced In 2017

Readers had a bit less faith in demand for the Model X or Tesla’s ability to produce it en masse. The most popular response was one step down from the most popular Model S projection, but there were also much fewer responses for the higher-end production projections. Here are more details:

How many Tesla Model X SUVs will Tesla produce in 2017?
# Produced Response Percent
20,000–29,999

7.4%

30,000–39,999

14%

40,000–49,999

27.3%

50,000–59,999

33.1%

60,000–69,999

7.4%

70,000–79,999

3.3%

80,000–89,999

3.3%

90,000–99,999

2.5%

100,000–109,999

0%

110,000–119,999

0.8%

120,000–129,999

0%

130,000+

0.8%

1—9,999 Tesla Model 3 Sedans To Be Produced In 2017

Tesla’s/Elon Musk’s goal is to deliver in 2017 all of the initial Tesla Model 3 electric sedans reserved before the unveiling event on March 31. That was well over 100,000 reservations, but the delivery goal is presumably just for US reservations. In any case, you guys and gals seem to think Tesla won’t hit its target, as the most popular projection for Model 3 production in 2017 is much, much lower.

Beyond the nearly 30% who estimated under 10,000 Model 3s produced, the projection split was actually pretty spread out.

How many Tesla Model 3 sedans will Tesla produce in 2017?
# Produced

Response Percent

0

2.5%

1–9,999

28.1%

10,000–19,999

9.9%

20,000–29,999

7.4%

30,000–39,999

14.0%

40,000–49,999

7.4%

50,000–59,999

7.4%

60,000–69,999

4.1%

70,000–79,999

1.7%

80,000–89,999

2.5%

90,000–99,999

5.8%

100,000–109,999

5.8%

110,000–119,999

1.7%

120,000–129,999

0.8%

130,000–139,999

0.0%

140,000–149,999

0.0%

150,000–159,999

0.0%

160,000–169,999

0.0%

170,000–179,999

0.0%

180,000–189,999

0.0%

190,000–199,999

0.0%

200,000–209,999

0.0%

210,000–219,999

0.0%

220,000–229,999

0.0%

230,000–239,999

0.0%

240,000–249,999

0.0%

250,000+

0.8%

60,000—69,999 Tesla Model S Sedans To Be Delivered Globally In 2017

Naturally, global delivery projections match up quite closely with production projections …

# Delivered

Response Percent

20,000–29,999

0.9%

30,000–39,999

6.0%

40,000–49,999

9.5%

50,000–59,999

18.1%

60,000–69,999

25.0%

70,000–79,999

10.3%

80,000–89,999

14.7%

90,000–99,999

4.3%

100,000–109,999

5.2%

110,000–119,999

1.7%

120,000–129,999

0.9%

130,000+

3.4%

50,000—59,999 Tesla Model X SUVs To Be Delivered Globally In 2017

Same deal with Model X …

How many Tesla Model X SUVs will Tesla deliver globally in 2017?
# Delivered

Response Percent

20,000–29,999

6.8%

30,000–39,999

20.5%

40,000–49,999

23.9%

50,000–59,999

26.5%

60,000–69,999

12.0%

70,000–79,999

1.7%

80,000–89,999

2.6%

90,000–99,999

1.7%

100,000–109,999

0.9%

110,000–119,999

0.9%

120,000–129,999

0.9%

130,000+

1.7%

1—9,999 Tesla Model 3 Sedans To Be Produced In 2017

… and Model 3.

How many Tesla Model 3 sedans will Tesla deliver globally in 2017?
# Delivered

Response Percent

0

3.4%

1–9,999

30.5%

10,000–19,999

11.9%

20,000–29,999

11.9%

30,000–39,999

8.5%

40,000–49,999

9.3%

50,000–59,999

4.2%

60,000–69,999

0.8%

70,000–79,999

3.4%

80,000–89,999

4.2%

90,000–99,999

4.2%

100,000–109,999

4.2%

110,000–119,999

0.8%

120,000–129,999

0.8%

130,000–139,999

0.8%

140,000–149,999

0.0%

150,000–159,999

0.0%

160,000–169,999

0.0%

170,000–179,999

0.0%

180,000–189,999

0.0%

190,000–199,999

0.0%

200,000–209,999

0.0%

210,000–219,999

0.0%

220,000–229,999

0.0%

230,000–239,999

0.0%

240,000–249,999

0.0%

250,000+

0.8%

30,000—39,999 Tesla Model S Sedans To Be Delivered In USA In 2017

Responses were pretty hugely split between 20,000 and 60,000 US Model S deliveries in the USA, a fairly big spread if you think about it. Generally speaking, though, these projections match up with ~50% of total projected Model S deliveries around the globe.

How many Tesla Model S sedans will Tesla deliver in the US in 2017?
# Delivered

Response Percent

20,000–29,999

20.0%

30,000–39,999

23.6%

40,000–49,999

21.8%

50,000–59,999

16.4%

60,000–69,999

6.4%

70,000–79,999

5.5%

80,000–89,999

0.9%

90,000–99,999

1.8%

100,000–109,999

1.8%

110,000–119,999

0.9%

120,000–129,999

0.0%

130,000+

0.9%

20,000—29,999 Tesla Model X SUVs To Be Delivered In USA In 2017

It was a similar deal for the Model X. Maybe I should have offered a lower option, but it seems all but guaranteed to me that Tesla Model X US deliveries won’t fall below 20,000.

How many Tesla Model X SUVs will Tesla deliver in the US in 2017?
Answer Options

Response Percent

20,000–29,999

38.0%

30,000–39,999

32.4%

40,000–49,999

18.5%

50,000–59,999

5.6%

60,000–69,999

1.9%

70,000–79,999

0.9%

80,000–89,999

0.9%

90,000–99,999

0.9%

100,000–109,999

0.0%

110,000–119,999

0.0%

120,000–129,999

0.0%

130,000+

0.9%

1—9,999 Tesla Model 3 Sedans To Be Delivered In USA In 2017

Like with production, of course, respondents weren’t too bullish on Model 3 deliveries in 2017, but over one-third of you did project over 50,000 US deliveries. I’m hesitant to make a precise projection, but I’m probably required to, yeah? I’ll pull a number out of a hat and go for 30,000.

How many Tesla Model 3 sedans will Tesla deliver in the US in 2017?
# Delivered

Response Percent

0

3.6%

1–9,999

30.4%

10,000–19,999

10.7%

20,000–29,999

17.9%

30,000–39,999

8.0%

40,000–49,999

6.3%

50,000–59,999

7.1%

60,000–69,999

4.5%

70,000–79,999

5.4%

80,000–89,999

0.9%

90,000–99,999

1.8%

100,000–109,999

1.8%

110,000–119,999

0.9%

120,000–129,999

0.0%

130,000–139,999

0.0%

140,000–149,999

0.0%

150,000–159,999

0.0%

160,000–169,999

0.0%

170,000–179,999

0.0%

180,000–189,999

0.0%

190,000–199,999

0.0%

200,000–209,999

0.0%

210,000–219,999

0.0%

220,000–229,999

0.0%

230,000–239,999

0.0%

240,000–249,999

0.0%

250,000+

0.9%

20,000—29,999 Chevy Bolts To Be Delivered In USA In 2017

Industry projections for annual Chevy Bolt production and demand have held pretty steady for over a year now, so it’s unsurprising to see that the bulk of responses (well, slightly more than half) fall into the 20,000–40,000 range. However, there are clearly some pessimists (22% under 20,000) and optimists (15% over 50,000) in the room.

I’m going to join the slightly more optimistic crowd and make my exact projection 36,703.

How many Chevy Bolts will GM deliver in the US in 2017?
# Delivered

Response Percent

1–9,999

6.0%

10,000–19,999

16.4%

20,000–29,999

32.8%

30,000–39,999

18.1%

40,000–49,999

12.1%

50,000–59,999

6.0%

60,000–69,999

0.9%

70,000–79,999

1.7%

80,000–89,999

1.7%

90,000–99,999

0.0%

100,000–109,999

1.7%

110,000–119,999

0.0%

120,000–129,999

0.0%

130,000–139,999

0.0%

140,000–149,999

0.0%

150,000–159,999

0.0%

160,000–169,999

0.0%

170,000–179,999

0.0%

180,000–189,999

0.9%

190,000–199,999

0.0%

200,000–209,999

0.0%

210,000–219,999

0.0%

220,000–229,999

0.0%

230,000–239,999

0.9%

240,000–249,999

0.0%

250,000+

0.9%

20,000—29,999 Chevy Volts Too

Overall, people seem to be expecting about the same from Chevy Volt deliveries and Chevy Bolt deliveries. I think it’s a safe bet, but we’ll have to wait to see. There’s also the possibility that people accidentally read “Bolt” instead of “Volt” here, or simply conflated the two — but that’s GM’s fault, not mine. 😛

How many Chevy Volts will GM deliver in the US in 2017?
# Delivered

Response Percent

1–9,999

5.3%

10,000–19,999

14.9%

20,000–29,999

29.8%

30,000–39,999

20.2%

40,000–49,999

13.2%

50,000–59,999

7.0%

60,000–69,999

3.5%

70,000–79,999

0.9%

80,000–89,999

1.8%

90,000–99,999

0.0%

100,000–109,999

0.9%

110,000–119,999

0.0%

120,000–129,999

0.0%

130,000–139,999

0.0%

140,000–149,999

0.0%

150,000–159,999

0.0%

160,000–169,999

0.0%

170,000–179,999

0.0%

180,000–189,999

0.0%

190,000–199,999

0.0%

200,000–209,999

0.0%

210,000–219,999

0.0%

220,000–229,999

0.0%

230,000–239,999

0.9%

240,000–249,999

0.9%

250,000+

0.9%

10,000—19,999 Nissan LEAFs To Be Delivered In USA In 2017

A rather interesting finding to me is that people don’t seem to think Nissan LEAF sales will get hit much by the arrival of the Chevy Bolt and Tesla Model 3.

Perhaps the assumption is that Nissan has significant momentum in the EV market that won’t diminish too much. Perhaps it’s that “a rising tide lifts all boats.” Perhaps it’s due to Nissan’s deep-discount and fleet sales approach. I don’t actually remember what I projected, but I’m guessing that I landed in the majority from a combination of those three things.

How many Nissan LEAFs will Nissan deliver in the US in 2017?
# Delivered

Response Percent

1–9,999

4.4%

10,000–19,999

27.2%

20,000–29,999

21.9%

30,000–39,999

16.7%

40,000–49,999

11.4%

50,000–59,999

7.9%

60,000–69,999

2.6%

70,000–79,999

2.6%

80,000–89,999

0.9%

90,000–99,999

0.9%

100,000–109,999

2.6%

110,000–119,999

0.0%

120,000–129,999

0.0%

130,000–139,999

0.0%

140,000–149,999

0.0%

150,000–159,999

0.0%

160,000–169,999

0.0%

170,000–179,999

0.0%

180,000–189,999

0.0%

190,000–199,999

0.0%

200,000–209,999

0.0%

210,000–219,999

0.0%

220,000–229,999

0.0%

230,000–239,999

0.0%

240,000–249,999

0.0%

250,000+

0.9%

10,000—19,999 BMW i3s To Be Delivered In USA In 2017

That was a close call. Here’s a definite case where specific projections would be interesting to see and then compare with reality at the end of 2017. I’m going to throw mine out there at 5,301. Honestly, though, I think that’s quite optimistic.

How many BMW i3s will BMW deliver in the US in 2017?
# Delivered

Response Percent

1–9,999

21.4%

10,000–19,999

31.3%

20,000–29,999

30.4%

30,000–39,999

6.3%

40,000–49,999

4.5%

50,000–59,999

0.9%

60,000–69,999

1.8%

70,000–79,999

0.9%

80,000–89,999

0.9%

90,000–99,999

0.0%

100,000–109,999

0.0%

110,000–119,999

0.9%

120,000–129,999

0.0%

130,000–139,999

0.0%

140,000–149,999

0.0%

150,000–159,999

0.0%

160,000–169,999

0.0%

170,000–179,999

0.0%

180,000–189,999

0.0%

190,000–199,999

0.0%

200,000–209,999

0.0%

210,000–219,999

0.0%

220,000–229,999

0.0%

230,000–239,999

0.0%

240,000–249,999

0.0%

250,000+

0.9%

20,000—29,000 Toyota Prius Primes To Be Delivered In USA In 2017

How many Toyota Prius Primes will Toyota deliver in the US in 2017?
# Delivered

Response Percent

1–9,999

4.5%

10,000–19,999

18.0%

20,000–29,999

30.6%

30,000–39,999

20.7%

40,000–49,999

4.5%

50,000–59,999

6.3%

60,000–69,999

4.5%

70,000–79,999

4.5%

80,000–89,999

1.8%

90,000–99,999

0.0%

100,000–109,999

3.6%

110,000–119,999

0.0%

120,000–129,999

0.0%

130,000–139,999

0.0%

140,000–149,999

0.0%

150,000–159,999

0.0%

160,000–169,999

0.0%

170,000–179,999

0.0%

180,000–189,999

0.9%

190,000–199,999

0.0%

200,000–209,999

0.0%

210,000–219,999

0.0%

220,000–229,999

0.0%

230,000–239,999

0.0%

240,000–249,999

0.0%

250,000+

0.0%

10,000—19,999 Ford Energi Plug-In Hybrids To Be Delivered In USA In 2017

How many Ford Energi cars will Ford deliver in the US in 2017?
# Delivered

Response Percent

1–9,999

22.2%

10,000–19,999

33.3%

20,000–29,999

25.0%

30,000–39,999

8.3%

40,000–49,999

9.3%

50,000–59,999

0.0%

60,000–69,999

0.0%

70,000–79,999

0.9%

80,000–89,999

0.9%

90,000–99,999

0.0%

100,000–109,999

0.0%

110,000–119,999

0.0%

120,000–129,999

0.0%

130,000–139,999

0.0%

140,000–149,999

0.0%

150,000–159,999

0.0%

160,000–169,999

0.0%

170,000–179,999

0.0%

180,000–189,999

0.0%

190,000–199,999

0.0%

200,000–209,999

0.0%

210,000–219,999

0.0%

220,000–229,999

0.0%

230,000–239,999

0.0%

240,000–249,999

0.0%

250,000+

0.0%

150,000—199,999 Pure-Electric Car Sales In USA In 2017

If CleanTechnica reader projections are accurate, there will be approximately double or more pure-electric car sales in the USA in 2017 than in 2016, driven by the Chevy Bolt, Tesla Model 3, Tesla Model S, and Tesla Model X, of course. I’m finding myself on the slightly pessimistic side here and will project 145,000 sales in this category.

How many pure-electric car sales (deliveries) will there be in the US in 2017?
# Delivered

Response Percent

50,000–99,999

7.3%

100,000–149,999

20.2%

150,000–199,999

25.7%

200,000–249,999

18.3%

250,000–299,999

11.9%

300,000–349,999

5.5%

350,000–399,999

1.8%

400,000–449,999

0.9%

450,000–499,999

4.6%

500,000–549,999

2.8%

550,000–599,999

0.0%

600,000–649,999

0.9%

650,000–699,999

0.0%

700,000–749,999

0.0%

750,000–799,999

0.0%

800,000+

0.0%

100,000—149,999 Plug-In Hybrid Sales In USA In 2017

I’m going to fall in line with the largest group here and project 140,000 plug-in hybrid sales in the US in 2017. What’s your specific guess?

How many plug-in hybrid electric car sales (deliveries) will there be in the US in 2017?
# Delivered

Response Percent

50,000–99,999

13.9%

100,000–149,999

25.9%

150,000–199,999

14.8%

200,000–249,999

14.8%

250,000–299,999

9.3%

300,000–349,999

5.6%

350,000–399,999

3.7%

400,000–449,999

4.6%

450,000–499,999

1.9%

500,000–549,999

2.8%

550,000–599,999

0.0%

600,000–649,999

0.9%

650,000–699,999

0.0%

700,000–749,999

0.9%

750,000–799,999

0.0%

800,000+

0.9%

250,000—299,999 Plug-In Car Sales In USA In 2017

At 285,000 projected EV sales/deliveries in the US in 2017, I again find myself inside the largest group. At least if I go down, I’ll be going down with a large bunch of you. 😀

How many total plug-in car sales (deliveries) will there be in the US in 2017?
Answer Options

Response Percent

100,000–149,999

8.5%

150,000–199,999

12.3%

200,000–249,999

18.9%

250,000–299,999

19.8%

300,000–349,999

7.5%

350,000–399,999

3.8%

400,000–449,999

3.8%

450,000–499,999

6.6%

500,000–549,999

7.5%

550,000–599,999

1.9%

600,000–649,999

2.8%

650,000–699,999

1.9%

700,000–749,999

0.9%

750,000–799,999

0.0%

800,000–849,000

0.0%

850,000–899,000

0.0%

900,000–949,000

1.9%

950,000–999,000

0.0%

1,000,000–1,049,000

0.0%

1,050,000–1,099,000

0.0%

1,100,000–1,149,000

0.0%

1,150,000–1,199,000

0.0%

1,200,000–1,249,000

0.0%

1,250,000–1,299,000

0.9%

1,300,000–1,349,000

0.0%

1,350,000–1,399,000

0.0%

1,400,000–1,449,000

0.0%

1,450,000–1,499,000

0.0%

1,500,000+

0.9%

250,000 US Electric Car Sales In 2017, 50,000 Tesla Model 3 Deliveries — EV Volumes

With our varied EV sales projections out of the way, let’s move on to some general projections from the experts at EV Volumes.

EV Volumes recently posted its predictions for overall electric car sales in the US. They’re pretty interesting. Additionally, they match up quite closely with the most popular CleanTechnica reader projections.

The gist of the market in 2017? EV Volumes thinks 250,000 units is feasible for 2017 — based on the idea that Tesla will manage to deliver at least 50,000 Model 3s before the end of the year. This would make for a projected EV market share in the US during 2017 of around 1.5%.

Here’s the commentary in question, straight from the larger EV Volumes article on 2016 and 2017 US electric car sales:

“An outlook on 2017 plug-in sales is a daring task, considering the vague announcements about the timing of the Tesla Model 3 and the next Nissan Leaf. GMs intentions for the Chevy Bolt (Car of the Year 2017) and the President Elect’s (Person of the Year 2016) intentions on ZEV grants are likewise uncertain.

“We like to stay optimistic and assume that at least 50,000 units Model 3 are delivered to US customers this year. Our best estimate is 250,000 units (1.5% share) which would place the US among the fastest growing markets for 2017.”

In aggregate form, we basically know what you think, but do you have more commentary on these projections? Too optimistic? Conservative? Will Tesla actually deliver more than 50,000 Model 3s? Fewer? Will GM seriously push the Chevy Bolt EV so that it sells well? Will the new Nissan Leaf ever be released? Specific arguments for or against the tide would be fun to dive into.





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About the Author

's background is predominantly in geopolitics and history, but he has an obsessive interest in pretty much everything. After an early life spent in the Imperial Free City of Dortmund, James followed the river Ruhr to Cofbuokheim, where he attended the University of Astnide. And where he also briefly considered entering the coal mining business. He currently writes for a living, on a broad variety of subjects, ranging from science, to politics, to military history, to renewable energy. You can follow his work on Google+.



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