MAKE Consulting has downgraded installation figures in its 10-year outlook for China after the country submitted its Thirteenth Five-Year Plan to the State Council for final approval, which included reduced national targets for wind power.
China submitted its latest Five-Year Plan, dealing with 2016 to 2020, to the State Council recently, in which it reduced its national targets for wind power, down from 250 GW (including 10 GW of offshore wind) by 2020 down to 210 GW (with 5 GW of offshore wind) by 2020. Subsequently, MAKE Consulting has modified its own 10-year outlook for China, downgrading both installed and grid-connected capacity by 6.5% from 2016 to 2025 as a result. MAKE predicts cumulative installed offshore capacity will face a 47.7% decrease by the end of 2020, and a 60% decrease by the end of 2025. Further, MAKE predicts annual installed wind capacity will drop to 20 to 22 GW between 2017 and 2020.
New wind projects in the northern regions of China are likely to find it increasingly difficult to connect to the grid in the short-term, with increasing pressure over curtailment and excess power supply dogging the region. Similar issues in the northwest provinces like Gansu and Xinjiang with existing heavy curtailment of wind power will see significantly lower growth over the next two years. Meanwhile, the new plans are likely to see an extreme shift in growth to the southern regions — unsurprising, considering that the southern regions are of high priority in this latest Five-Year Plan.
Across all of the Chinese wind power industry there are roadblocks appearing like angry hedgehogs. Curtailment has already impacted growth across the northern regions, with further curtailment issues expected. As such, the growth of new wind orders has been slowing since the fourth quarter of 2015, decreasing dramatically during this year. Component suppliers are struggling with large inventories and low orders. Further cuts to the industry’s Feed-in Tariffs have also been proposed, which will likely have further impact over the next two to three years.
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