Navigant Research Heralds The End Of The Light Bulb

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A new white paper from research firm Navigant Research investigates the transition under way as the lighting industry shifts from traditional lighting sources to integrated lighting.

“The lighting industry is headed down a path of market transformation,” Navigant Research said, “with new technology developments and innovative applications expected to displace the traditional light bulb,” thanks to the LED, which Navigant describes as “the force majeure in today’s lighting industry, offering significant energy savings, controllability, and lifespan benefits that are already creating market disruption.”

Specifically, according to Navigant’s new white paper, advanced lighting technology revenue is expected to reach $16.9 billion in 2024.

“The public’s eventual acceptance of LEDs and the increased market penetration of organic LEDs (OLEDs) has provided a platform for flexible LED and OLED lighting sheets that will eventually create another major shift in the lighting market,” said Krystal Maxwell, research associate with Navigant Research. “These products, using a completely new form factor, have the potential to change the way lighting is experienced and ceilings, wallpaper, and windows are constructed.”

The white paper explains that “Lighting technology will soon no longer be about just seeing in the dark; rather, it will develop into a gamut of use cases and benefits” thanks to companies like Acuity Brands, Konica Minolta, LG Chem, and Philips Lighting, who are all turning lighting into something fun, functional, and efficient. LED lighting has allowed for WiFi-enabled lighting throughout your house; lighting tied to your location by way of your phone; energy savings and remote accessibility. LED lights are also finally becoming “yellow enough” to be used in street lighting, providing massive savings for councils, while new ways to connect lighting throughout office buildings — such as Cree’s SmartCast Power over Ethernet — is bringing lighting into the Internet of Things.

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18 thoughts on “Navigant Research Heralds The End Of The Light Bulb

  • I went straight from incandescent bulbs to LED. Never likely fluorescent bulbs.

  • I hope they don’t forget to allow for folk who use the heat output of the humble tungsten bulb. My home brew cabinet is warmed by a 150W bulb and my bathroom by 2z 275W heat lamps. You can get 275W Quartz-halogen bulbs but I reckon 275W of LED is going to be a bit too bright to keep baby chickens warm.

    • If you want heat then use a heater. No sense in wasting energy making light you don’t need.

      For the chickies – they make rubber ‘heating pads’ for starting seeds. Might make more sense to put one of those under the chicks and warm them from the bottom up.

      • The light will decay to heat so the cabinet is still getting 150W of heat. But it’s coming from a $1.20 device. There’s no heaters available as cheaply as that.
        Same for the chicks, IR heat bulbs are much cheaper than any heater. The worry is that if the factories making tungsten bulbs fold, the cost of bulbs will go up as economies of scale collapse.

        • Let’s celebrate the death of the tungsten bulb. A victory for mankind and an important step in the fight against extreme climate change.

          What you spend to heat your chicks with a light bulb will be more than paid for with what you save in electricity purchases by not having to power energy wasting light bulbs.

          Count up the lights in your house that are regularly on and estimate the hours. Figure out what you’re spending every year in lighting costs. Then redo the math with 9 watt LEDS rather than 60 to 150 watt incandescents.

          Get a chick heating pad. Here’s one for only $30. And it uses only 25 watts, not the 150 watts of your light bulb.

          When you aren’t raising up a new flock of chickens use it to keep your carboy warm.

          • If you want heat (for chicks, grog, whatever) you get exactly what the Wattage of the device says. A 5W LED may give ample light but only 5W of heat, which isn’t enough if you need 150W. The grog cabinet is in a cold garage and would struggle maintaining temp if I dropped the input below 100W. It is thermostatically controlled.
            Our house is nearly 100% LEDs, just 3 luminiars that are on tungsten or CFL. The tungstens are stuck because they are chandeliers with 5 candle bulbs each on dimmers and a dimmable LED candle doesn’t exist yet. I have contemplated organising a smart switching arrangement that turns the LEDs on one at a time in five steps so I don’t have to rewire the lounge but it’s just beyond the reach of my knowledge of electronics.

          • Insulate.

            Home Depot sells 37 different dimmable LED ‘candles’. Amazon sells them.

            Amazon also sells programmable thermostat switches for controlling your chick-brew hear.

          • Do you think Home Depot would export to New Zealand? Thanks for the tip re Amazon. I’ll check to see if someone offers a 230V bayonet (B22) version. I suspect that’s going to be the fish-hook.
            Of course the other problem with reducing power consumption further is that the bloody power company will just hike our fixed line charges.

          • You can purchase b22 adapters for standard light bulbs on amazon for around 2 dollars each. I did that so I would no longer need to pay 6 dollars for a 99 cent fluorescent bulb.

        • With a seed heater costs more that $1.20, it also last a long time.

          • Woo! Lucky for some…. Here in NZ a seed heater or fermentation heating pad will have me staring down the muzzle of $45 to $65. Economies of scale and added freight & other costs I guess.

          • How much is a simple heating pad? Brand name here for just over $10.

  • I just got LED bulbs from Costco Canada for only $3/bulb (including utility rebate) which is previously unheard of. This type of pricing will go a long way to convincing people to switch. Additionally it is getting increasingly difficult to even find Incandescent bulbs so eventually you won’t even be given a choice, which I am totally fine with.

    • I’ve bought some from Home Depot for $4. I didn’t see anything about a utility company rebate included.

    • At Las Vegas Costco I paid 1.97 per 60 watt equivalent led light bolbs. That was with utility co. rebate which was deducted at the register. Costco usually does this once a year so stock up. I bought mine either late last year or early this year.
      Even though led lights are only about 15% efficient that is still much better than incandescent at 3-5%. It is clear we still have a lot of room for improvement.

  • This is a trend that I personally don’t care for at all.

    While (O)LEDs have a long lifespan, fittings still last much longer. My living room hosts a set of truly magnificent Art Nouveau chandeliers that have been in the family for just over a century, fitted with LED light bulbs using the same Edison fitting used by the incadescents of a century ago. It’s quite plausible that these chandeliers will still be around in the next century.

    Not even the most modern LED lights have a predicted lifespan anywhere near that long. Fittings with integrated lights are essentially disposable commodities.

    Interiors are increasingly treated as disposable. Even creative and environmentally conscious fast fashion interior retailers like Ikea still cannot rival the durable furniture of the past in terms of aesthetics and environmental performance.

    • I agree. I will avoid integrated lighting as well as most disposable products.

    • Plug-compatibility is insanely valuable. Edison sockets forever.

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