Despite numerous adverse conditions, MAKE Consulting has made a slight upgrade to the long-term global wind power market outlook.
MAKE Consulting, one of the world’s leading renewable energy analytics firms, released its Q4/2015 Global Wind Power Market Outlook Update on Thursday, providing an analysis of global and regional wind power installation forecasts through the next decade (2024).
A number of global conditions throughout the last quarter affected this quarter’s Update.
MAKE highlighted the increased demand driven by soon-to-be-expiring policies in Germany and the United States as the main reason why expectations covered in the Q3 analysis will be exceeded by 5.5 GW from 2015 to 2018. As a result, MAKE has upgraded the near-term outlook.
However, long-term policy uncertainty — in Germany, the US, and particularly throughout the European offshore industry — has lowered confidence in growth through 2019 to 2024 by 4.3 GW.
As a result, MAKE has amended its 10-year outlook up 0.2%.
The specifics of MAKE’s amendments include a 24% quarter-over-quarter upgrade of the United States’ near-term growth, due to the hurry to apply for the country’s Production Tax Credit before it expires. A number of policy conditions throughout the European markets has influenced that region’s outlook, including a 17% boost from 2015 to 2019 in Germany, and a 43% drop over 10 years in Romania due to ongoing legislative uncertainty.
China’s outlook remains the same as last quarter’s analysis, while the remaining Asia Pacific region was adjusted downwards slightly.
MAKE saw firm global turbine order intake through the first three quarters of 2015 increase by 44% over the previous year’s first nine months to more than 36 GW, with China leading the way with 1.7 GW in Q3 alone.