Future Nissan LEAF Range Leak: 130 Miles In 2017 LEAF, 150 Miles In 2018 LEAF
Originally published on EV Obsession.
I landed a big leak from a Nissan rep while in Florida last week. Due to a presentation Renault & Nissan CEO & Chairman Carlos Ghosn gave at Nissan’s annual meeting earlier this year, many of us have assumed Nissan would unveil a long-range LEAF or similar car for late 2017. This has been a pretty big assumption, and a jump to 107 miles of range on the 2016 LEAF made it seem a tad unlikely.
Nissan may still unveil a long-range electric car next year, but it doesn’t seem like it’ll be a LEAF, and presumably won’t be as cheap as a LEAF. And now we get to the leak I received.
I was told that the 2017 LEAF would have 130 miles of range and the 2018 LEAF 150 miles of range. That would make it difficult for the LEAF to compete with the 200-mile Chevy Bolt planned for 2017 and the 200-mile Tesla Model 3 planned for 2018. But perhaps Nissan will be able to sweeten the deal somewhat — with a considerably lower price (it’s already several thousand dollars cheaper than those planned vehicles) or better features of other sorts.
I’m still excited, as 130 miles and 150 miles enable much more and much more convenient traveling. The LEAF is already more than adequate for most of our daily driving needs. It’s regional or long-range trips like a drive from Sarasota to Miami or from Florida up to North Carolina that are a huge challenge. 150 or even 130 miles of range would make these trips much more practical. As you can see in the two slides below — from a recent presentation I gave that was partially based on four surveys we recently conducted — there are a lot of people who won’t settle for 100 miles but would go for a vehicle with 130 or 150 miles of range.
In my opinion, the takeaways for anyone considering an electric car today are: 1) if you don’t really need 130 miles, just go for a current 84-mile or 107-mile LEAF (that’s what we just did, opting for a 2015 LEAF with 84 miles of range); 2) if you could really do much better with 130 miles of range, maybe hold off for a year; 3) if you need 200+ miles of range, you’ll either have to wait for the Chevy Bolt or Tesla Model 3, or go ahead and get an extended-range EV like the Chevy Volt or BMW i3 REx.
And the broader takeaway: things are getting exciting in the EV market!
Oh yeah, also, this leak didn’t come from Carlos Ghosn, so take it with a grain of salt.
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I doubt this man. If they have to stay in the game in 2018 they have to have atleast 200 miles of range. 150 miles in 2018 is like a joke even if they sweeten the deal somehow. Even 200 might be low. 250-300 miles is the sweet spot for staying in the game in 2018. 200 miles at a considerably cheaper price and more features might just work. But 250-300 miles will be the norm for 2018.
What the acceptable range is depends on where you live. Europe is generally more densely populated than the Americas. I’ve bought a house in Perpignan on the Spanish border. The two cities I may need to drive to regularly are Montpellier (160 km) and Barcelona (190 km). So 130 miles (209 km) will be acceptable. Anything further away counts as a long trip needing planning, and en-route recharging would be fine.
I think James has a good point. Whats the longest oint to point drive you anticipate doing regularly? Comfortable above that is your personal sweetspot. It will differ by circumstance.
I agree, but would add a corollary/amendment.
What’s the longest point to point drive you anticipate doing regularly where there is no charging available.
For example, if you regularly drive to things in the sticks (as I do fairly regularly), the chances of finding a charge point in the next 5 years are likely to remain slim. Thus, it’s the round trip distance that is important.
Last weekend, I went to the middle of the Dales – an 80mi round trip (roughly), so a 130mi LEAF would be ok for that, but if I was to drive to the middle of the Lake District (round trip 180mi).
I accept if there were wider charging available, lower range would work, but it’s unlikely in national parks in the near future.
Even with available charge stations, its going to be a lot slower than an ICE vehicle. So if it is a trip you expect to take regularly you’ll want to be able to do the whole thing without charging.
Of course if its a second car, and something with adequate range is available, then the equation changes.
Right, a regular long-distance trip is not what I was thinking. Just a very occasional one. Right now, the 107-mile LEAF can’t do some I’d do once or twice. But a 150-mile or even 130-mile one could.
But would you pays thousands more to avoid a recharge on a trip you’ll only do once or twice? I know car buying is far too often about emotional aspirations, than actual practical matters, but an irrational buyer could pay thousands for a capability he/she doesn’t use.
Here’s a company planning to instal 100 chargers in the Lake District by Christmas – mostly slow of course: http://www.thewestmorlandgazette.co.uk/news/10626639.Electric_car_boost_for_the_Lake_District/
That was a useful article, but it was from 2013. I’ve not seen a huge increase in the number of charging points around the lakes when I’ve been up there. Will have to have a look on the charging point map thing that’s around somewhere.
We have some charging at the Muir Woods…parks are getting the message and occasionally the funding.
Well that is indeed true. But my point was looking from car ,competition, battery tech and time period perspective. Of course they could offer it at the same range as now. But not at the same price point as today.
In addition, I remember that Mr. Ghosn has said that Nissan will not hold back improvements waiting for the ultimate. It’s the old saying of “Best is the enemy of better”, so don’t delay bringing out the “better”. Thus, we see different ranges for each year.
One other point is that more than just mileage needs to be considered when selecting a battery size. If you want maximum battery life, it is good to only use the middle ranges of charge, i.e. charge to 80%. Perhaps this will change as new battery formulations come out in the future. A second factor is how inclement is the weather where you drive? Heater, head lights, wipers all can take a drain and would call for more battery.
Sure but it depends on the price too – in fact that is probably the biggest factor even more important than range.
If the 2018 Leaf costs at least $5,000 less than a Bolt I’d bet they’ll sell more Leafs than Bolts, even if they only have 150 miles range.
In these articles everyone becomes pre-occupied with range, but price is just as important, perhaps more.
Absolutely. It is. Its all about the Best Value for Money proposition. And in 2018 they have to stay current with the range that would be a commonplace at that point in time. If they still offered today’s range then they won’t be catering to a wider audience as they are at this point in time. Thats precisely my point. Price, range, warranty terms. Each and every aspect is just as important as the other. 🙂
I agree with the poll. I actually think Tesla Model III should offer a 140-150 Mile range option, so it can have a lower entry level price.
140 mile range would be overkill for me.
Same here. Would be nice if Elon wasn’t super strict about that 200-mile minimum he announced before.
Hold on. If Tesla can offer 200 miles at a low price don’t complain. Vertical Integration Magic.
$35,000 isn’t really a low price. If it can offer 200 miles at $35,000, what can the price be at 150 miles?
$32,000? Probably not that much less.
Zachary, I disagree. $35,000 is a lot for some to pay for a car, but when you factor in fuel and ICE-specific maintenance costs, that larger upfront cost becomes vey appealing.
If a buyer is wiling to pay around $30,000 range for a Honda Accord, hopefully they can see the value in paying $5,000 more for larger lifetime savings.
Good points. I’m just thinking of all the people who buy used or buy much lower-priced $10,000-15,000 cars. The fact is, many people simply can’t afford a $35,000 car — $0 fuel costs or not.
Just yesterday – I did a Trip (in my ICE 2010 Kia Soul) that I would like to be able to do in an EV. It was about 2 hours out, and 2 hours back.
Along the way at about 1 hour out – is a Tesla Supercharger, and about 10 – 15 minutes out from Home is a CHAdeMO & CCS Quick Charger. So that Means a Tesla Supercharger Compatible Car doesn’t quite NEED to make the 4 hours of Driving, and since I also stopped for about 30 minutes on my way home at the half way point out, I could have use the Supercharger then – for sure.
That still leaves the distance between (Non-Tesla) DC Quick Charging on the way out, & back at about 3.5 hours worth of Driving without DC Quick Charging access for a CHAdeMO or CCS Car option at present!
There is, however – Level 2 Chargers at about the 1 hour point out from home, and so – if I could do the two hours of driving between there, the end point, and back, it could be recharged for the drive home. Not fun, but possible, so that means – that 130 miles pretty much makes it the minimum, and 150 a bit better, but still a bit tight for that trip, if time is any matter!
True – it is but 3-6 times per year on average, and is no where as long as my summer vacation drives from Toronto to Wisconsin, or winter vacation drives from Toronto to Florida, but it starts to do more than just the Commute and Grocery Shopping runs, and lessens the need for a second car down to two trips a year, for which Renting could work until Charging access, redundancy, and speed, fills in any needed Gaps!
So – Currently – I know of a Tesla Model S – 60 with Supercharging Enabled, and the owner saw me at Oshkosh, Wisconsin, after Driving from the Brampton Area near Toronto, [and made the trip as fast as I did in my ICE!] so I know that trip is easily Doable in a Tesla, particularly the new 70D with about 32 more rated miles range than the 60! I think the coming Model 3, with a lower range option of just 210 miles, could likely make this trip also! It could also make the other trip I do – semi-regularly, or change the need to make said trip, maybe!
That picture is so sexist! Draping a gorgeous scantily-clad model across a car just to get the male optics! For shame! (j/k – but she *is* gorgeous.)
Nothing sexist about it as she seems pretty, healthy and happy. It’s only the world around you telling you that fat is the new norm. Don’t be fooled, this is how women in Eastern Europe look like now and it is how they looked 40 years ago in the US too.
(I’m not sure, but I suspect that’s Zach’s wife….)
I suspect so, too. It was meant to be a humorous compliment to his healthy, happy family.
If sha is Zach’s wife than I’m not surprised he agreed to move to Poland. :-)))
She’s my sister 😀 But I’m sure she’ll appreciate the positive attention.
I was joking! That “(j/k)” I wrote means “just kidding”.
I was referring to the “auto booth babe” you see at some of the trade shows when, of course, the woman in the picture is nothing of the sort. Just a nice healthy, happy, etc..
i really thought she was playing the role here, but turned out she was just standing in front of the car in a natural way. sort of funny
haha. i meant to publish another article before this one. that’s my sister. so be careful what you all say here 😀
2 follow-up points:
1) my wife couldn’t make the trip for technical/legal reasons (immigration application process is open)
2) i told my sister she was standing like the girls at the auto shows and she totally didn’t realize it. haha 😀
Smart Attractive Babes LOVE EV’s.
I’ve noticed that.
“Babes”?
Sure, there are plenty of attractive women who like EV’s. Along with ugly ones, I’d assume.
Worked for me 🙂
Cheaper to get the 85 mile Spark EV. If you live in California, the net cost to you is $79/month lease. The cost of electricity is $10/month on a separate meter.
It’s a good deal if you feel safe in it.
PA is a CARB state, yet, we don’t get this car either.
Don’t worry, 2018 is when the travel provision ends.
You committed?
We got it for my mom 😀 She’ll be doing a long-term review of it here. Very detailed. 😀
How about doing a stacked version of the two graphs so that it’s easier to see how money changes how people decide how much range they need?
this was the same question, just from the two surveys (non-EV drivers and EV drivers)
I think I’m with the majority here–a 130-150 mile Leaf might look pretty good. And I’m apt to be in the market in 2017.
That’s the range I’d go for. Enough for ~1 week of driving for me (i think), and enough to make a longer road trip that isn’t inconveniently long (i think).
Me too. Every one to two-weeks we do a round trip of 130 miles. Then, twice a year – 700 to 1000 mile trips over 3 days. All other is local. 150 would do nicely.
Too bad you don’t have charging at your destination on those roundtrips. But yeah, anyhow, 150 miles would be nicer for security and for the longer trips.
Agreed. The 130 mile round trip destination is to the “big city” of Annapolis MD and stays are too short for significant recharge of current Leaf.
Arghh! I want an EV so bad. It’ll be a long 2 or 3 years.
The question from the survey is not valid one. I am against the price of $5,000 for each 30 mile range added as it is based on the range cost of a Tesla. In other words, it is biased in the first place. Currently we have $145/kWh and that means about $1,450 per 30 mile, not $5,000!
The Tesla battery range pricing is a deal breaker for those that can’t afford.
Try the question again but say adding $1,500 for each 30 mile additional range.
$145 is a 2017 price and it’s wholesale for cells, not retail for battery packs.
Currently we have an 84 mile Nissan Leaf for $29k and a Tesla S70 with a 250 mile range for $75k They aren’t the same in terms of interior volume, etc. but we can do some math if we ignore that.
250 – 84 = 166
$75k – $29k = $46k
$277/extra mile range. $8,313 for 30 miles extra range. $5,000 for 30 miles looks reasonable to me. It’s a working number that gets to how much extra people are willing to pay for more range.
Oh come on Bob, that’s apples vs oranges. I believe that with margins for Nissan we can’t go above $300 per 1kwh, so with 3.5 miles for each 1kwh, that’s around $2,500 for each 30 miles. That’s what I call reasonable for 2015/16
This is not 2016, it’s 2015 and I used what is available right now.
I don’t know how we do 2017 math. (2016 is a transition year.)
We have some idea that the 2017 Bolt and Mod 3 will be 200 mile range cars. We don’t know how much higher than 200 the EPA rating might be, if at all.
We think the 2017 Bolt will have an MSRP of $37,500 and the Mod3 an MSRP of $35,000.
We don’t know the range or cost of the 2017 Leaf or another sub 200 mile range EV.
Also, we can’t take $/kWh prices for battery packs and multiple. Adding range adds batteries which adds weight which requires more batteries per mile.
I’ll return to my original point. I don’t view Zach’s $5k for 30 miles as far off the mark for 2015.
Look at my comment regard the 2016 LEAF S vs LEAF SV. Yes, the SV has a few other things, but automakers are probably always going offer more options to the longer-range packages to increase the price a bit more.
The $145 price is what is GM is paying to LG Chem since a couple of years back and for the 2016 Chevy Volt packs.
Two years back is what was used for Chevy Mules. They’re always long ahead in the testing unlike Tesla which does a lot of hyping and overhyping before they even have mules tested.
“The $145 price is what is GM is paying to LG Chem since a couple of years back”
Post something to back up your claim and prove me wrong.
—-
While we wait, GM announced that cells will cost it $145 in 2016. LG Chem is apparently pissed that GM let that number leak as they will apparently charge other purchasers more.
http://www.hybridcars.com/gm-ev-battery-cells-down-to-145kwh-and-still-falling/
http://insideevs.com/lg-chem-ticked-gm-disclosing-145kwh-battery-cell-pricing-video/
Thanks for backing me up. You just proved it. The 2016 Volt is being sold now 2015, in the hands of the buyers already! And of course, it did not just come out of thin air, it takes time to assemble them before the now, and the pricing has been negotiated in the past and not in 2016! And if you know proper QA/QC, they installed it in the mules 2 years back to undergo extensive testing, that’s SOP that the Tesla cannot afford to do. And the price from the mules to today did not change Bob! And you are saying that the 2016 Volt has a battery pricing in 2016 when in fact the 2016 Volts are now in the hands of the buyers! NOW! 2015! Have you warped in time? I wanna know! I want to traverse back and forth in time!
I saw one pass me by in Sherman Oaks on Monday.
What is the big deal.
Bull, Marion.
Neither you nor I furnished any proof of Nissan paying $145/kWh “a couple years back”.
I really don’t appreciate your trying to twist words.
“LG Chem is apparently pissed that GM let that number leak as they will apparently charge other purchasers more.”
I wouldn’t put too much stock in that.
Don’t know much about sales contracts, eh, Joseph?
They have been caught in past making claim about low prices in order to gain market share. They have a history of shady deals but that probably true of anybody who does business in Asia. No bashing intended.
If you think shady deals are limited to Asia you have little experience in the real world.
“The $145 price is what is GM is paying to LG Chem since a couple of years back and for the 2016 Chevy Volt packs.”
Not the same batteries.
I told you and Bob last year it was $200 /kWh and
Nissan (Japan) was 9 months behind.
Nissan may source cheaper batteries from LG Chem
http://www.electric-vehiclenews.com/2014/09/nissan-may-source-cheaper-batteries.html
Here is what your one year old link says –
“Today’s Nissan batteries come in at $270 per kWh, based on replacement prices thought to be below cost, according to consulting firm AlixPartners. The true manufacturing cost is believed to be over $300, inflated by the amortisation of unused plant capacity and the burdensome electrodes deal.
The next generation will have lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) cathodes, as used by LG, rather than the current lithium manganese oxide (LMO) chemistry. The alliance cost target is $200/kWh, whether made or bought, sources said.”
Believed true cost $300/kWh.
Future target cost $200/kWh.
I see nothing that backs your claim. The article is about Nissan deciding to no longer manufacturer batteries itself because Nissan has not been able to keep up with battery companies in terms of cost and performance.
A month after that article was published Navigant Research told us that Tesla was paying Panasonic $180/kWh for cells. If Nissan’s cells were costing them upwards of $250/kWh they likely had no choice but to cease manufacturing and look outside for cells.
No where near 145/kWh.
“they likely had no choice but to cease manufacturing and look outside for cells.”
There will be some political fall out.
It is actually good news if battery production is in the hands of specialist suppliers rather than the carmakers, as it lowers barriers to entry in evs. I can’t imagine LG, Samsung or Panasonic signing an exclusivity deal. So if a laggard like Fiat-Chrysler decides to come in, they will find a battery supplier.
However, we do need more than three big battery suppliers (link) for healthy competition: four if you count BYD’s in-house operation. Am I missing anybody out? Do any of the Germans have big plans?
I read somewhere recently that LG Chem has contracts with 20 different car builders for batteries for present or future delivery.
Here’s a couple lists of companies that manufacture EV batteries. Have no idea how complete or accurate they are.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_electric_vehicle_battery_manufacturers
http://cleantechnica.com/2015/05/06/10-biggest-electric-car-battery-manufacturers-are/
It’s a moving price point and no one I know has the exact numbers, but it would be fun to try it with a different assumption. Planning on it.
But if you look at the 2016 LEAF S vs 2016 LEAF SV (probably the best comparison we now have), it’s $5,190 more for an extra 23 miles of range. I think my estimate of $5,000 for 30 is about as good of an even estimate as one can make right now if you project that battery costs will fall a bit more by 2017/2018.
http://cleantechnica.com/2015/09/11/magic-100-mile-mark-passed-by-2016-nissan-leaf/
Exciting to see! I think they’re going to hit a wall with the Mod3 if the Leaf only gets 150miles @ 23k after rebates vs Tesla Mod3 @ 200+ miles @ 25k. It makes more sense to me that they would do larger jumps farther apart to keep their supply chain more simple. The only way this would make sense to me is if all the packs were backwards compatible.
Have a 2011 Leaf and need a new battery? Here, take a new one – what size do you want? ie…same battery works on all leafs to keep their battery inventory requirements down.
The Model 3 would be DOA in 2020!
Thank you, Ms. Volt. We so appreciate your biased input. (He joked….)
She is getting an running start on Model 3 bashing.
The most exciting news may be a more upscale EV from Nissan. We need more upscale.
A third entry in the 200 mile range, $35k range market would be great. The more the merrier. It means that more people wouldl learn about EVs. And competition to reduce prices would increase.
Agree and I think many brands will “come out” in the EV world with a 200 mile offering. It’s too attractive to consumers for other manufacturers not to treat EVs seriously at that point.
Other benefit is that more people will be buying/producing batteries = lower prices, more R&D $$ = win win win 😀
We’re seeing companies now talking about all electric futures. At least no ICEs in their future. Battery price and proven cycle life has, I suspect, been the holdup.
Now with two western battery manufacturers producing cells for less than $150/kWh the gate is likely open and we should see other companies stampede out.
Hopefully, Ford and VW will announce something soon.
Would be nice. I’m afraid they’re quite far behind right now.
I thought this article was about the Nissan Leaf.
Why is the Volt and Model 3 in the discussion?
You need to read the article:
“Nissan may still unveil a long-range electric car next year, but it doesn’t seem like it’ll be a LEAF, and presumably won’t be as cheap as a LEAF.”
You will need to ask Marion about the M3.
I think everyone is going to be hit hard by the Model 3. The masses want a Tesla. More charts coming…
As to the Short Range Tesla – highly unlikely based on Elon’s comments that he thinks 200 miles is the minimum practical or useful range, but – what I think will be the next interesting price point is new EV’s with a 200 mile range, but a $20,000 Price Point, in about 5 – 7 years out!
My guesses:
March 2016 – Anticipated Model 3 Reveal and Reservations!
Late 2017 = First Model 3 Production cars (Founder & Such)
Early 2018 = Model 3 Production starts to increase.
Late 2018 = Tesla Shows their New Roadster (OR gives more talk about it by then!)
2019 = Orders for Model 3 increasing, Orders for New Roadster as well!
2020 = Talk of Tesla’s Next Vehicle? Reveal? F150 Beater or Cheaper Car or Electric Airplane??
Unlikely to get announcement of a $20,000 Tesla until they reach their targeted 500,000 Cars by 2020! Not because of Technology, but because that would need a Volume of 2.0 – 3.0 Million a year to keep up with Demand by Tesla Buyers, and – they will need more Production Factory Space – for Batteries and Cars to go there!
So – that might come after Gigafactory 2.0 is on the way making Cells and Batteries, and maybe GF 3.0 is either on the way – or started construction! They would also need More Auto Production in USA, CHINA, Europe, as well as India, just to keep as much as possible in shorter delivery times and Taxation Benefits!
I wonder what percentage of people in cold winter weather areas realize how much more battery capacity is needed in winter.
I wonder how many people driving ICEVs realize their mileage drops in winter?
ICEVs and EVs both lose range in cold temperatures, EVs lose more.
More battery is needed.
A larger gas tank on an ICE car is not.
Depends on where you’re going and how much range you started out with.
Probably a similar number to those who think they need 100 miles of range 99% of the year when they really need under 50 miles.
I’m more interested in the collective power of a fleet of EVs for Municipal and Provincial Governments, so a large local dealership would predicate which make and model would provide the best maintenance.
How many Nissan Leafs would it take to power up our local outdoor three day Music Festival to replace their $100,000 annual generator/cable fees?
http://www.nissan-global.com/EN/TECHNOLOGY/OVERVIEW/vehicle_to_home.html
Think of leaving home on a cold morning in a LEAF with the equivalent of 2 gallons in the tank.
Think of only needing to go 45 miles in your pre-heated by plug power, nice and warm Leaf. Don’t automatically assume the shorter range is a killer
Don’t see why batteries can’t also be designed with some heaters that work when plugged in. This would seem something that could be integrated with battery cooling system.
Battery drain while driving and regenerative recharge would then tend to keep them warm.
This is also a good plan, 130 miles in 2017, 150 miles in 2018. Just keep increasing the range without increasing the vehicle cost as the battery price comes down.
This will bring a gradual increase in production.
But if GM launches Bolt with 200 mile range and Tesla launches Model-3, then Leaf will be in trouble unless they reduce the price drastically.
My guess, Nissan will keep the Leaf as a lower end electric and continue lowering the prices into the $15k to $18k range. In 2017, they’ll announce at least 1 new BEV model with 200+ range in the $27k to $30k range.
That would be sweet. Ideal, imho. And honestly, everyone is going to have trouble competing with Tesla around the $30,000 price point. If Nissan wants to remain #1 in total EV sales, I think this would be it’s only shot at it.
Some random thoughts.
What if the long term increases in range are slow, and incremental. Let’s assume that these leaked ’17 and ’18 estimates turn out to be true. Then let’s extrapolate:
2017 model – 130 miles
2018 model – 150 miles
2019 model – 175 miles
2020 model – 200 miles
Okay, at this point, car buyers are much, much more aware of EVs and the public at large is an easier sell. Other manufacturers have had time to get into the game, and make competitive vehicles. The Ford “Juice” and the VW “Not-A-Diesel”.
Perhaps the tipping point comes more slowly, like a battleship turning. In this scenario, we simply work up to the 200 mile number that many think is the psychological barrier for “average” potential buyer. We are not dependent on a big breakthrough technology like like Lithium-Sulphur (or whatever) to get there.
Yeah, maybe this thing goes down much less noisily than I was hoping for.
And if we do get a positive mitigating factor or two in the mix, all the better (faster). Like:
Higher gas prices
Battery tech breakthrough
Increased/Extended purchase incentives
More carbon regulation
In any case. the waiting is killing me. I want several reasonably priced 250 mile EVs by the fall of 2017. I guess this won’t happen, so I’ll settle for 20-25 miles a model year if I can get it.
I doubt it. The limiting factor for more range is not the batteries (its not a tech issue). Its the cost. As more factories come online the cost will drop substantially. Just with the gigafactory tesla is expecting a 30% drop in price. LG is also adding a lot of battery capacity. In the next few years we will see many new battery factories under construction.
I don’t see manufactures wanting a gradual increase each year. If it will be better next year many people will wait. Didn’t Volt sales drop a lot as soon as the improved Volt was announced?
Ive said it before its all about 2018.
2018: Higher CAFE standards
2018: Next gen Nissan
2018: Bolt
2018: Mod 3!
2018: End of “travel provision”!!!!
2018: End of “travel provision”!!!!!!
EV sales will skyrocket.
2018: There will be a lot more places to rapid charge.
Tesla will keep building and GM is going to have to deal with this. No one is going to pay for a Bolt if they can get a Tesla 3 cheaper and get access to the Supercharger system.
No one is going to pay..
Logical fallacy, all it takes is ONE.
Congratulations. You win the Trivial, Meaningless Point Award of the Day.
Now go see if you can find a misspelled word somewhere and win the daily double.
I regularly go to the moon, unless I can do a return trip without charging, an EV is not for me!
Actually if you can get to the moon, the the return is already free if you use a free return trajectory. (As long as you don’t actually land on the moon, if you just sail past it, you’ll return naturally.)
Also most modern spacecraft use high specific impulse electric propulsion (solar is the only source of power up there) such as ion thrusters. An even better form of electric propulsion (plasma engine or VASIMR) may be available soon.
So perhaps and EV is for you, and your moon travel…
I did this survey & I had a really hard time answering that question. We currently have two cars, a BEV & a PHEV. We’d prefer to just have one car, a BEV with sufficient range & charging infrastructure to enable cross country travel (i.e. a Tesla). However, a Tesla is a bit too expensive for us. Thus it’s cheaper to have two cars. We’d really prefer to not have to burn gasoline ever, though & hope to get a Tesla in the future.
Yeah, I felt a little bad putting people in a tough spot with that one. Required a lot of speculation. But I really wanted to get a better sense of people’s demands and thoughts on that matter. Turned out quite interesting.
Yes. I’m not sure how I answered, but for us it really depends on if we have two cars or a Model S. With two cars, then the cheapest & lowest range BEV is the “sweet spot”. With a Tesla, the highest range & highest price point is the “sweet spot” because it would be our only vehicle. We’re still not sure what we’ll do when the lease is up on our BEV in 9 months.
Actually, once the range is a good / reliable 120 miles in all conditions then I would contend that more important than more range in the car is the availability of a fast-charging infrastructure. If governments wish to see the rapid electrification of the private vehicular fleet, which they should to deal with global warming and other pollutants, they should get involved with the car industry, electricity supply industry and local authorities to ensure there are enough fast chargers in all areas of the country. A direct subsidy for these for a while would possibly be more worthwhile than a subsidy for the car itself. Whilst fast charging cars is slower than filling with petrol, if you’ve driven 120 miles, you should be stopping for a rest in any case. Fast charging stations attached to cafés, pubs etc or provided by local authorities in tourist areas would be a great draw to the drivers of electric cars. I have just driven a Nissan Leaf but at 80 miles range only (and probably less in this very hilly area), and as my only car, for the occasional longer trip I take, and no facility to charge on the way, it’s not a feasible proposition, though I’d love to own one. Totally amazing vehicle. It’s interesting that the comments here seem to indicate a sweet spot at 130-150 miles. My “reliable” 120 miles is the equivalent, as the quoted range is usually a bit of an exaggeration.
The longer range really does matter.
Up until now you bought an EV to make a difference – it wasn’t going to save you big bucks in any meaningful way.
But there is a large enough proportion of commuters (~15%) who drive very long distances daily averaging around 80-100 miles round trip. This group has the highest incentive of everyone to get the cheapest car measured in cost per mile. Until now a Leaf couldn’t handle a long commute….BUT anything more expensive than about 22-25k (after incentives) became difficult to justify even after including saved fuel costs.
Also keep in mind these commuters need more than JUST 100 miles range to account for additional errands, and hot/cold days etc when they’ll get less range. I think 130-150 mile range is about the sweet spot, with an after incentive price of $22k that will be the tipping point for the EV car industry.
My guess is the key reason they’re increasing incrementally is to keep the price at (about) $29k. I’m sure they could jump right to 200+ miles in 2017, but they would have to increase the price, a lot – so the incremental increases allow them to keep the price static, and slowly increase range as the price of batteries drops.