Mercom Capital Group has reiterated its global solar installation forecast for 2015, predicting the industry will reach 57.4 GW by the end of the year.
One of the world’s leading market intelligence firms, Mercom Capital Group earlier this year revised its 2015 global solar installation forecast up to 57.4 GW. “We are revising our forecast upwards since our previous update due to positive news coming out of China along with revised installation goals,” said Raj Prabhu, CEO and Co-Founder of Mercom Capital Group, in June. Mercom analysts banked their forecast for China, Japan, and the United States to account for 60% of global solar installations in 2015.
Now, three months later, and Mercom is content to keep its forecast as it is — albeit, as a 25 to 30% increase on 2014 levels.
“Despite deteriorating macro-economic conditions in China and the recent downtrend in solar stocks, the market is on pace to reach about 57 GW this year,” said Raj Prabhu.
Since June, China has released its installation numbers for the first half of the year, installing 7.73 GW of solar PV — a significant jump on the 3 GW installed in the first half of 2014. However, according to Mercom, “macro-economic conditions have changed drastically in China over the past three months even though we have not seen an effect on the solar market directly.” Mercom is still confident that China could reach installations for 2015 of 17 GW, but “curtailment and delayed tariff payments could be a negative factor.”
Mercom expects Japan to install around 9.5 GW of solar PV this year, but this figure should decline in the years following.
The US on the other hand is expected to see a strong 15 months worth of solar PV installations, and reach 8.5 GW by the end of this year. A number of US-based projects will scurry to make use of the Investment Tax Credit before it expires at the end of 2016.
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