A new report from GlobalData predicts that the total global solar PV installed capacity will reach 652 GW by 2025.
One of the world’s primary research companies, GlobalData published an update to its Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Market report, including analysis on global market size, market share, average price, regulations, and key countries, all through to 2025.
The primary findings from the report are the firm’s predictions for total cumulative PV installed capacity by 2025, which GlobalData believes will reach 652 GW. Following an impressive growth period during 2006 to 2014, which saw a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 50%, cumulative PV installed capacity increased from 5.7 GW to an estimated 174 GW “due to increasing economies of scale, emerging technologies, and policy-based government and institutional industry support” — though the International Energy Agency pegged the figure closer to 177 GW.
However, there is a plateauing of growth as the global solar PV industry begins to settle after many years of initial growth. China and Japan were responsible for much of 2014’s growth, but as other countries begin to reduce or remove government support and the industry itself settles, 2014 was unsurprisingly a little flat, showing less growth than in 2013.
Nevertheless, even though the traditional powerhouses are plateauing their own growth, GlobalData believes that the increase in solar PV’s popularity in other countries — especially third world and developing nations — will see PV installed capacity grow at a CAGR of 12.8% over the next decade, with annual installations set to stabilize within the range of 39.3 GW to 46.5 GW by 2025. This falls in line with other intelligence firms, such as IHS, which in March predicted the global solar PV installed capacity figure to rise by 177% from 2014 levels by 2019, reaching around 498 GW.
GlobalData highlighted Europe as the world’s largest solar PV market, being led by Germany and Spain, and accounting for approximately half of the world’s total PV installed capacity. The Asia Pacific region followed with one third, but shifts in installation trends in 2012 saw China, the US, and Japan lead annual additions.
Unsurprisingly, and as has been highlighted many times before, China and Japan’s contribution to the PV installed capacity will see the Asia Pacific region take command of the global share, with approximately 53% in 2025, with China leading the way with an estimated 197.9 GW, followed by India and Japan with 30.5 and 30.2 GW respectively.
North and South America only have a few countries contributing significantly to global PV installed capacity share, but that is expected to grow from the current 12% to around 15% by the end of 2025.
The final aspect of the GlobalData market update is its manufacturing predictions, which place Yingli Green as retaining its leader status. Total global solar PV crystalline module production increased from 18,147 MW in 2010 to 44,000 MW in 2014, growing at a CAGR of 24.8%. Yingli Green maintained its position at the head of the pack with 3,361 MW, followed by Trina Solar, Jinko Solar, Canadian Solar, JA Solar, and Sharp.
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