India is expected to drive the majority of growth in the Asia Pacific region (excluding China), however, other markets are expected to increase more than three-fold by the end of 2024.
The forecast comes from consulting megalith, MAKE, which released its regional report for the Asia Pacific (excluding China, ie, APeC) predicting more than 79 GW of new wind power to be commissioned between 2015 and 2024.
MAKE expects India to connect almost 48 GW of new wind energy capacity through 2024, accounting for 59% of the region’s total new connected capacity. Australia and Japan are expected to be the next two core markets in the region, bringing the trio’s combined capacity installation up to 79% of the region’s total. However, that still allows for 16.1 GW of new capacity to be installed across the remaining twelve markets in the APeC region.
The reintroduction of India’s key generation based incentive and accelerated depreciation scheme over the last two years is integral to India’s current expected growth, and the country is set to commission 9.2 GW between 2015 and 2017.
The recent solution to Australia’s renewable energy target debate will see less room for new capacity additions, though MAKE still sees potential if the opposition party regains power and reinstates the previous renewable energy target — a more than likely proposition.
Japan’s high feed-in tariffs have attracted a strong pipeline of wind energy projects (more than 6 GW), and MAKE expects the country’s market to start taking off from 2016.
MAKE similarly forecasts the arrival of three new markets to start developing wind power in the APeC region between 2015 and 2017, including Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Indonesia.
Overall, MAKE expects the APeC region’s wind market to be driven by the core markets of India, Australia, and Japan, long-term growth in the offshore wind market, and smaller markets aiming to scale up their own burgeoning wind energy industries.