Working from an analysis of China’s approved wind energy project pipeline, as well as their own statistics, MAKE Consulting predicts that China will deliver approximately 21.5 GW of new grid-connected wind energy capacity in 2015.
Following rapid growth in 2014, MAKE Consulting expects the Chinese wind industry to continue growing in 2015, despite the looming second round of feed-in tariff (FIT) reductions expected at the end of 2016 or beginning of 2017.
MAKE’s analysis focused heavily on specific regional growth. The fourth quarter of 2014 saw a number of new projects approved in the Northwest, North, and South regions, “exceeding even centrally-planned batch approvals.”
Expectations for Xinjiang, especially Hami, have been upgraded, in part thanks to the region’s brilliant wind resources and project development conditions in China as a whole. Coastal provinces in the East, and Yunnan province in the South will all continue to benefit from a high average IRR thanks to high average wind utilization hours.
“Consequently, Xinjiang, Yunnan and coastal provinces in the East may become the focus of an upcoming second round of FIT reductions at the end of 2016 or beginning of 2017 and China’s outdated wind classification system may also be adjusted to better reflect the wind resources in each province.”
MAKE also believes there will be a focus on new installations in Xinjiang, Ningxia, and Hebei in 2015, whereas analysis suggests Inner Mongolia will focus more on new grid-connections, along with Xinjiang and Hebei which are likely to see substantial increases in new grid-connected capacity in 2015.
“More than 60% of new grid-connected capacity in 2015 is expected to be in Class I, II and III regions, majority of which will be located in the Northwest and North. In comparison, Class I, II and III annual grid-connected capacity ranged between 47-57% in the previous three years.”
Information courtesy of MAKE Consulting