Answers are still trickling in, but I think it’s a good time to report on where things stand now. 11 days ago, I published a story on how Nissan LEAF sales compare with the sales of the top 20 cars in the US. I ended with a poll, asking you intelligent readers when you think an electric car (100% electric or plug-in hybrid/extended-range electric) will first break into the top 20 of US car sales.
This is actually very similar to a poll I conducted in July/August 2013, so I was curious to see how they compared. In the 2013 poll, the question was actually when an electric car would break into the top 10 of global auto sales.
The results match up pretty well. Last year, 2018 won the poll, but with a decent spread two years on either side (2015 = 7% | 2016 = 9% | 2017 = 15% | 2018 = 25% | 2019 = 13% | 2020 = 15% | Beyond 2020 = 17%).
This year, with a slightly easier challenge, the winning option was 2017, but with a lot of people choosing 2016 and a lot choosing 2018. I’m pretty sure I also selected 2017, but I may have gone with 2018
71% of you thought that the first plug-in car to break into the top 20 of US car sales would be a 100% electric car. Whether you were thinking that because of the Nissan LEAF or the Tesla Model III, I agree with you.
I know we have a ton more readers than answered the poll, so if you haven’t chimed in and want to do so, go ahead! If things change considerably, I’ll write an update.
If you have any more thoughts on these polls, of course, chime in below! Half the fun on this site is the comment section, imho.
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