Published on March 25th, 2014 | by Zachary Shahan


6 German Renewable Energy Charts

March 25th, 2014 by  

One of our readers, Kanaga Gnana, recently sent along a November report from the Fraunhofer Institute that has a number of interesting charts in it. I pulled out 6 for sharing here. Have a look.

In this first one, you can see CSP vs PV vs CPV levelized cost of energy (LCOE) estimates for Germany:


In this second one, you can see how those estimates are projected to change over the coming 14 years or so:


Here, you can see LCOE estimates across more energy technologies, renewable energy technologies as well as fossil fuels:

LCOE PV vs Wind vs Biogas vs Coal vs Nat Gas

And here are projected LCOE estimates for each of these up to 2030:

LCOE renewables solar wind forecast

In this 5th chart, you can see a 2010 IEA forecast for world solar PV growth, an EPIA (European Photovoltaic Industry Association) forecast for the same, and an average of the two:

solar PV growth forecasts
In this last one, you can see the wide variation in CPV growth forecasts under an optimistic vs a conservative scenario:

cpv forecast fraunhofer

Interesting charts. Bookmark for future referencing. 😉

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is tryin' to help society help itself (and other species) with the power of the typed word. He spends most of his time here on CleanTechnica as its director and chief editor, but he's also the president of Important Media and the director/founder of EV Obsession, Solar Love, and Bikocity. Zach is recognized globally as a solar energy, electric car, and energy storage expert. Zach has long-term investments in TSLA, FSLR, SPWR, SEDG, & ABB — after years of covering solar and EVs, he simply has a lot of faith in these particular companies and feels like they are good cleantech companies to invest in.

  • JamesWimberley

    Chart 5 is for global not German installed capacity. The low IEA estimate can I think be ignored for the reasons given in earlier posts on its bias. The average of market forecasts is better (hitting 1 TW by 2024) but historically the analysts have tended to underestimate growth more than a year or two ahead.

    • Sorry, thanks.

      • A Real Libertarian

        You should probably put “you can see a 2010 IEA forecast for world solar PV growth” in there.

  • Michael Berndtson

    Just being kind of silly here. When doing economic analysis on projected future PV cost, is there an assumed periodic step change or perturbation factor used to reflect efficiency gains? The smooth curves seem to reflect cost reduction due to something like market penetration, rather than technology. For instance, an increase in electricity generation per area of panel due to chemistry reformulations or something like that.

    • JamesWimberley

      Installing solar panels involves a chain, or more precisely a tree, with dozens of steps and branches. The dramatic reduction in system cost over the last decade has been achieved by dozens of improvements at every step, with no single dominant change. If this continues, the smooth curve is reasonable. Personally I’m guessing that at least one of the radical new ideas being researched will pay off – probably in the form of a jump in efficiency – and we will see a sudden drop in costs. There’s no way of modelling this.

      • Jouni Valkonen

        I do not believe large jumps in actual photovoltaics technology, but when the cost of battery storage reaches certain tipping we can expect huge jump in solar PV installations.

        Also the cost of battery technology is harder to predict, because there is only single dominant cost factor, i.e. what is the cost performance of batteries. Any major innovation for new, more durable and cheaper battery technology will lead into huge disruption of solar storage markets.

        My prediction is that by 2030 about 90 % energy generation capacity comes from solar + batteries. Rest is mostly nuclear, hydroelectricity and windpower.

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