Connect with us

Hi, what are you looking for?

CleanTechnica

Clean Power

Solar Stocks On A Roll

This article was originally published on RenewEconomy.

A re-appraisal of the global market for solar PV modules – predictions of higher growth and a rebound in margins – is underpinning massive gains in the stock prices of global manufacturing firms. And some analysts suggest it might be sustainable.

Share values of some publicly listed PV companies fell dramatically earlier this year – to the point where some were in danger of being de-listed – because of continuing concerns about a global glut of modules, and the collapse of Suntech Power, which had once been the market leader.

But what has followed has been a strong rally, underpinned by a gradual return of margins for the major manufacturers, a thinning out of second and third tier manufacturers, and a strong boost in demand projections.

Overnight, stocks rallied again, boosted by a strong report by Canadian Solar, which said its revenues were ahead of expectations but, more importantly, its margins had also returns. The rally has come despite continued concerns about the impact of “trade wars” between China and the US, and growing threats of the same between China and the EU.

Japan, is the key on the demand side. In a report released on Tuesday, Deustche Bank suggested that the Japanese market, underpinned by generous feed-in-tariffs, could reach an annual “run rate” (a rolling 12 month measurement rather than a calendar year one) of 7GW to 9GW. That would make it the largest in the world, and 10 times the size of the Australian market.

Deutsche Bank said its “base case” forecast for global solar PV demand in 2013 was now 40GW – almost one quarter above most forecasts made at the start of the year. Even the prospect of EU import tariffs would only lower this forecast down to around 35GW. It said demand should also improve.

Leading solar stocks have increased more than three fold in 2013. These include the two biggest US stocks, First Solar and SunPower, which have both risen around 270 per cent since the start of the year. It should be noted, however, that most stocks are still trading well below their peaks of 2009 or earlier, as these two graphs of Sunpower show. The first is for the last 12 months, the second for the last 5 years.

solar stocks 2013

solar stocks trend

Chinese stocks such as Yingli, Trina and Canadian Solar have posted smaller rises, although both Trina and Canadian jumped sharply overnight. Canadian’s 10 per cent overnight gain was underpinned by a 20 per cent rise in forecast shipments – underpinned by the surging Japanese market, which now accounts for 25 per cent of sales – and a near doubing in gross margins to 9.7 per cent.

“Despite the strong year-to-date performance, we believe solar rally has legs,” the Deutsche Bank analysts wrote. “Demand outlook is improving due to strong demand from Japan, China, US and other emerging markets. Supply situation is also a lot better in our view – Chinese tier 2 (and tier) 3 supply cuts have accelerated over the past 18 months and supply from large Chinese companies such as STP, LDK has decreased sharply, particularly in markets outside of China.”

The analysts said a positive outcome on the tariff war and gradual profit improvement could act as the next set of catalysts for solar stocks. It cited US solar stocks (WFR, SPWR, FSLR) along with TSL as stocks that could continue to see positive momentum. Supply has already declined as several lower tier Chinese module makers go into bankruptcy and others are unable to add capacity.


Appreciate CleanTechnica’s originality? Consider becoming a CleanTechnica Member, Supporter, Technician, or Ambassador — or a patron on Patreon.

 
 
Have a tip for CleanTechnica, want to advertise, or want to suggest a guest for our CleanTech Talk podcast? Contact us here.

Written By

is the founding editor of RenewEconomy.com.au, an Australian-based website that provides news and analysis on cleantech, carbon, and climate issues. Giles is based in Sydney and is watching the (slow, but quickening) transformation of Australia's energy grid with great interest.

Comments

#1 most loved electric vehicle, solar energy, and battery news & analysis site in the world.

 

Support our work today!

Advertisement

Power CleanTechnica: $3/Month

Tesla News Solar News EV News Data Reports

Advertisement

EV Sales Charts, Graphs, & Stats

Advertisement

Our Electric Car Driver Report

30 Electric Car Benefits

Tesla Model 3 Video

Renewable Energy 101 In Depth

solar power facts

Tesla News

EV Reviews

Home Efficiency

You May Also Like

Clean Power

The Australian government is keen on an economic recovery from covid that is led by gas — used domestically and also sold to our...

Clean Power

The increasing winds of storms, especially for typhoon-prone Japan, has led to some changes in the wind industry. A wind farm cluster on the...

Clean Power

By Josh Rasmussen The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has more than 550 unique, active partners. One such partner is First Solar Inc. —...

Clean Power

Courtesy of Union Of Concerned Scientists By Rachel Cleetus The G-7 Leaders’ Summit is underway, from June 11–13, in Cornwall, UK. As host nation for this...

Copyright © 2021 CleanTechnica. The content produced by this site is for entertainment purposes only. Opinions and comments published on this site may not be sanctioned by and do not necessarily represent the views of CleanTechnica, its owners, sponsors, affiliates, or subsidiaries.