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Biomass LCOE CSP vs CPV vs PV

Published on March 25th, 2014 | by Zachary Shahan

8

6 German Renewable Energy Charts

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March 25th, 2014 by Zachary Shahan 

One of our readers, Kanaga Gnana, recently sent along a November report from the Fraunhofer Institute that has a number of interesting charts in it. I pulled out 6 for sharing here. Have a look.

In this first one, you can see CSP vs PV vs CPV levelized cost of energy (LCOE) estimates for Germany:

LCOE CSP vs CPV vs PV

In this second one, you can see how those estimates are projected to change over the coming 14 years or so:

LCOE CPV vs PV vs CSP

Here, you can see LCOE estimates across more energy technologies, renewable energy technologies as well as fossil fuels:

LCOE PV vs Wind vs Biogas vs Coal vs Nat Gas

And here are projected LCOE estimates for each of these up to 2030:

LCOE renewables solar wind forecast

In this 5th chart, you can see a 2010 IEA forecast for world solar PV growth, an EPIA (European Photovoltaic Industry Association) forecast for the same, and an average of the two:

solar PV growth forecasts
In this last one, you can see the wide variation in CPV growth forecasts under an optimistic vs a conservative scenario:

cpv forecast fraunhofer

Interesting charts. Bookmark for future referencing. ;)

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About the Author

spends most of his time here on CleanTechnica as the director/chief editor. Otherwise, he's probably enthusiastically fulfilling his duties as the director/editor of Solar Love, EV Obsession, Planetsave, or Bikocity. Zach is recognized globally as a solar energy, electric car, and wind energy expert. If you would like him to speak at a related conference or event, connect with him via social media. You can connect with Zach on any popular social networking site you like. Links to all of his main social media profiles are on ZacharyShahan.com.



  • JamesWimberley

    Chart 5 is for global not German installed capacity. The low IEA estimate can I think be ignored for the reasons given in earlier posts on its bias. The average of market forecasts is better (hitting 1 TW by 2024) but historically the analysts have tended to underestimate growth more than a year or two ahead.

    • http://zacharyshahan.com/ Zachary Shahan

      Sorry, thanks.

      • A Real Libertarian

        You should probably put “you can see a 2010 IEA forecast for world solar PV growth” in there.

        • http://zacharyshahan.com/ Zachary Shahan

          Done. Thanks.

          • A Real Libertarian

            You’re welcome.

  • Michael Berndtson

    Just being kind of silly here. When doing economic analysis on projected future PV cost, is there an assumed periodic step change or perturbation factor used to reflect efficiency gains? The smooth curves seem to reflect cost reduction due to something like market penetration, rather than technology. For instance, an increase in electricity generation per area of panel due to chemistry reformulations or something like that.

    • JamesWimberley

      Installing solar panels involves a chain, or more precisely a tree, with dozens of steps and branches. The dramatic reduction in system cost over the last decade has been achieved by dozens of improvements at every step, with no single dominant change. If this continues, the smooth curve is reasonable. Personally I’m guessing that at least one of the radical new ideas being researched will pay off – probably in the form of a jump in efficiency – and we will see a sudden drop in costs. There’s no way of modelling this.

      • Jouni Valkonen

        I do not believe large jumps in actual photovoltaics technology, but when the cost of battery storage reaches certain tipping we can expect huge jump in solar PV installations.

        Also the cost of battery technology is harder to predict, because there is only single dominant cost factor, i.e. what is the cost performance of batteries. Any major innovation for new, more durable and cheaper battery technology will lead into huge disruption of solar storage markets.

        My prediction is that by 2030 about 90 % energy generation capacity comes from solar + batteries. Rest is mostly nuclear, hydroelectricity and windpower.

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