We may look back on Q2 2018 as the make or break period for Tesla. If you are an investor, now is the time to call your broker, place your bets, and buckle up. It could be a bumpy ride.
The most popular CleanTechnica stories in March? Here they are:
Tesla says it built 34,494 cars in the first quarter of 2018 — its best quarter ever. Model 3 production was slightly less than predicted but was ramping up strongly toward the end of the quarter.
With the end of the quarter wrapping up, Tesla Model 3 production news and speculation this past week was hotter than a spoon on a Florida beach. A story about official Hyundai Kona EV specs were able to sneak into the top 5 nonetheless, with the biggest reader concern about this sizzling newcomer being that Hyundai probably won’t have the capacity (read: battery supply) to build a ton of them.
Tesla is doomed, doomed I tell you. When the real carmakers with their century of experience start making electric cars, it is over for Tesla. Ford, VW, and Toyota are so much better. Etc., etc. ……… . How often have we heard comments like this? In a couple of previous articles, I compared the ramp of the Tesla Model 3 to the ramp of the Chevy Bolt. Tesla is clearly as good as or better than GM in bringing electric cars to production.
The whole world is talking about Tesla’s inability to produce cars, Elon Musk’s unrealistic timelines, and “broken promises.” But the facts are different:
A frequent theme of the legions of Tesla skeptics is the idea that, when the traditional automakers finally get serious about EVs, Tesla will be toast. However, while the auto giants, with their access to amazing amounts of capital and their enormous economies of scale, certainly have the ability to bury tiny Tesla, the reason that this scenario isn’t going to take place is that they don’t have the motivation to compete with the California carmaker.
With the end of quarter 1 (Q1) 2018 nearly here — the time period by which Tesla CEO Elon Musk had most recently projected 2,500 Model 3 electric cars would be produced a week — it seems like it would be interesting to speculate a bit about the intersection of Model 3 production figures, investor and short-seller expectations, and company stock prices.
A recently revealed internal email, from Tesla Senior Vice President of Engineering Doug Fields to employees at the company, featured the comment that daily production rates were now “well into the 200’s on every single line.” That is, the Model S, Model X, and Model 3 production lines were all now churning out well over 200 units a day, each. (No, the Model Y isn’t making the cut yet.)
Of course. Everyone would know. A drone would surely record its birth. The VIN would be known in a mere seconds. Local gnomes would carefully examine the fit & finish and measure any panel gaps.
