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Browsing the "predictions" Tag

EIA Releases 2050 Projections For Energy & Makes It Clear That It Hasn’t Been Paying Attention

February 18th, 2020 | by Michael Barnard

It's unclear why the EIA 2050 projections are so skewed from observable realities of costs, age of fleets, and global industry transformation. Like most major energy analysis organizations, they are very poor at predicting the rapidly declining costs of wind and solar, very poor at predicting the rapidity of growth of those technologies, and very poor at understanding that the existing technologies are fairly radically outcompeted


2020 Tesla Predictions

January 2nd, 2020 | by Guest Contributor

Starting from this year onwards, I will place my predictions for the next 12 months in article form. Most of these predictions are based on historical facts or behavioural economics, and I would be happy if I am 50% correct by end of next year. My purpose for doing this is to mainly get a much broader critique to my predictions in the comments section, so please leave a comment whether you agree or not


When Will Renewable Energy Prices Stop Dropping?

June 15th, 2019 | by George Harvey

Some people have asked when the prices will stop falling. Their understanding is that the decline in price really is unpredictable, and they believe that no definitive answer can be made about what source of energy will be least expensive in the future. In some important ways, they are wrong. The declines are predictable, to a degree


6 Factors Will Hasten Or Defer Peak Oil Demand

November 11th, 2017 | by Michael Barnard

We haven’t reached peak consumption, also known as peak demand. We are likely to reach it globally by 2050, but it’s unlikely to occur before 2030 at the very earliest. There are six major factors which make defining exactly when it will occur very difficult



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