Can the Rivian R2 Succeed & Propel Rivian to Prosperity?
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In a period of struggling EV sales in the United States, when the market has been hurt by drastic changes to US policy and extreme tariffs, it’s hard to find bright spots or vehicle models that stimulate optimism and excitement. The Rivian R2 has the potential to be one. But will it be?
There is a lot of hype and excitement around the vehicle right now, for some very good reasons. Let’s start with these.
- Legacy automakers are pulling back from their EV plans and ambitions quite dramatically following President Donald Trump’s all-out attack on cleantech, on policies aimed at keeping our air clean and our climate stable. In a time when one of the largest auto markets in the world is going against the grain and trying to avoid electrification, it’s refreshing to see an EV-only company bring a mass-market vehicle to the US, especially after so many years of planning and teasing.
- Tesla, once the darling of the EV industry, has pushed countless buyers away through Elon Musk’s extreme political activities and the board’s apparent unwillingness to do anything about it. In fact, even for people who are simply EV fans, it’s hard to not take a strongly negative view on the company’s leadership since Musk helped get Donald Trump elected and enabled the all-out attack on EVs and renewable energy as a result. Many former Tesla fans would therefore like a new cleantech-focused company to support, and that is Rivian for a large portion of them.
- Potential. Only a few models developed outside of China have been able to achieve high volumes of sales. The Tesla Model 3 and Model Y have shown us how much is possible, dethroning gas-powered vehicles from the biggest rankings in the world. However, we are still waiting for a model that can replicate that. Most likely, the Rivian R2 is not that model, but there is certainly a great deal of excitement around the possibility that it is.
But can it live up to the hype?
At the end of the day, it’s another midsized electric SUV, and there are several of those on the market. It’s expected to come at a starting price of around $45,000. That will provide the opportunity for many more people to buy a Rivian, but it’s still not cheap. Furthermore, there are already several models in that category. Is the R2 going to be able to stand out from the crowd so much that it shines far more than the rest of them? Will it really be able to sell five-fold or ten-fold more units than the Ford Mustang Mach-E, Chevy Equinox EV, Chevy Blazer EV, Audi Q4 e-tron, Cadillac OPTIQ, Honda Prologue, Hyundai IONIQ 5, Kia EV6, etc.? Selling many more units than these models may not be easy.
But Rivian’s future rests on the shoulders of the R2. It needs this vehicle to succeed in order to survive and prosper. It needs the R2 to perform in order for the company to become profitable. Is the R2 up for the job?
Due to the amount of competition in precisely the same class and size as so many others, and the policy headwinds, I am concerned the launch will not go as superbly as many of us have hoped. It’s a great vehicle, but how much can it stand out from the crowd and pull in stunningly high volumes of sales?
We will find out soon.
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