Cox Automotive Forecasts 9% Sales Decline for Tesla in USA in 2025

The 3rd quarter was a record sales month for Tesla, thanks in large part to the US tax credit for EVs ending in the 4th quarter. However, that doesn’t mean Tesla has been having a good year. Leading into the 3rd quarter, Tesla wasn’t doing well, and it surely isn’t having a great 4th quarter post–tax credit.

What’s the net effect going to be, though?

Well, Cox Automotive, which gets auto sales data from dealerships, has come up with an estimate of how many vehicles Tesla will sell in the United States in 2025, and it isn’t pretty.

While expecting 1.8% growth in US auto sales overall in 2025, it is forecasting a significant decline at Tesla. Cox sees Toyota (8.4% growth) and GM (5.1% growth) as the big winners of the year, whereas it sees Tesla sales declining 8.9% in the country.

Cox Automotive is forecasting that Tesla’s US sales drop from 633,762 to 577,097. According to the forecast, the company’s market share will also drop from 4.0% to 3.5%.

And note that Tesla’s US sales already declined from 2023 to 2024. In 2023 they totaled 651,950, whereas in 2024 they totaled 633,762. That was a 3% decline. Comparing the 2025 forecast to 2023 sales, Tesla will have dropped by 13%.

Yikes. Well, we will see where the eventual numbers end up, but I expect Cox’s forecast will end up being close to accurate.

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