US President Caught Napping By US Solar Industry

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US President Donald Trump’s war on the US solar industry is going sideways. Investment has slowed this year, but the industry has gathered enough momentum to carry itself through to next year and beyond. That may seem like wishful thinking now, but a new report from Deloitte outlines how the domestic solar industry can survive, recover, and persist long after President Trump leaves office on January 20, 2029 — peacefully this time, one hopes.

The US Solar Industry Persists

It’s a matter of common knowledge that solar power is now the fastest, most accessible, and most economical way to get more kilowatts into the hands of energy-thirsty ratepayers. A new report from the US Energy Information Agency also notes that solar power plant projects have faced fewer construction delays in the most recent reporting period, indicating that the industry has adopted more effective systems to carry a project through its final months.

Now here comes the US-based global firm Deloitte with a new analysis that underscores the powerful, and persistent, role of the US solar industry in the nation’s power supply.

While taking note that both wind and solar investments fell significantly during the first half of this year, Deloitte emphasizes that power generation capacity additions in during the first half of this year were dominated by renewable energy projects at 93%, for a total of 30.2 gigawatts. Solar and storage alone accounted for 83% of new capacity additions, underscoring how the solar industry has sidelined wind and other renewables, at least for the time being.

As for next year, Deloitte makes the case for holdover momentum, partly on account of new rules that will weed out some of the competition from overseas firms. “Deployment could surge in 2026 as developers shift to safe-harbor projects, while the new foreign entity of concern (FEOC) sourcing rules—restrictions targeting entities linked to covered nations (China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea) through ownership, control, or jurisdiction—take effect,” Deloitte observed.

“With only 35% of the pipeline under construction, renewable starts are expected to accelerate despite supply chain pressures from FEOC and tariffs,” the firm emphasized.

Follow The Money

Deloitte is also among those pointing out that solar arrays don’t necessarily need the tax credit to compete against natural gas power plants. Without the tax credits, solar costs could rise up to 55% through 2026 while still beating gas in some markets. “Fixed-mount solar already outcompetes natural gas combined cycle in many regions without credits,” Deloitte states.

In addition, the tax credits are still in play at this time. The clock is winding down, but utility-scale projects that start before December 31 and go into service within four years are still eligible for tax credits. Other projects that start by July 4 of 2026 may also still qualify, though complications could arise as the new FEOC rules kick in.

On the down side, Deloitte calculates that investments in wind and solar combined fell 18% during H1 2025 compared to the same period last year, and the slowdown will continue to ripple out for the rest of the decade. “Deloitte analysis projects that annual solar, wind, and storage additions between 2026 and 2030 could fall to a range of 30 GW to 66 GW, down from a range of 54 GW to 85 GW under pre-OBBBA trajectories,” Deloitte estimated, referring to the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” passed by the Republican-controlled Congress in July.

Still, if Deloitte’s new projection of up to 66 gigawatts by 2030 maxes out, the forthcoming rate of construction will top the firm’s previous worst-case estimate of 54 gigawatts, OBBA or not.

Yep, Energy Storage Is A Thing That Exists

Of course, no mention of the US solar industry is complete without a mention of energy storage, a thing that exists and is economical to produce, despite the pronouncements of multiple high-ranking officials in the Trump administration, including Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and Agriculture Secretary Sue Rollins.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright also piled on recently, claiming that solar panels and wind turbines are “essentially worthless when it is dark outside, and the wind is not blowing.” 

Nevertheless, Deloitte emphasizes that energy storage does exist, and it is driving momentum as tech industry hyperscalers demand more kilowatts, more quickly, than any other domestic energy resource can deliver.

“Hyperscalers are driving unprecedented demand for firm, low-carbon power,” the firm observes. “Battery storage is the fastest bridge to 24/7 clean power, as clean baseload options like nuclear, hydro, enhanced geothermal, and natural gas with carbon capture take years to develop.”

The March Of Innovation Marches Onwards

The solar industry can also count on further energy storage innovations to raise performance, reduce costs, or both. As Deloitte notes, conventional lithium-ion battery arrays are giving way to the more economical lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) formula for short duration storage.

LFP or not, these battery energy storage systems (BESS) only deliver electricity for a handful of hours. The hunt has been on for long duration systems that can deliver the goods for 10 hours or more, even stretching into entire seasons, with the aim of shepherding more wind and solar into the grid. Deloitte mentions two emerging alternatives, a hydrogen-lithium combo and iron-air batteries. Block-type thermal energy storage systems are also beginning to emerge in the long duration field.

“In 2026, developers are likely to accelerate solar-plus-storage to serve hyperscaler demand, diversify revenue to manage volatility, and position early in long-duration and distributed storage for the next wave of growth,” Deloitte concludes.

Next Steps For The US Solar Industry

The Deloitte report covers other key drivers of solar industry momentum, including operational efficiencies supported by AI and other new digital tools. “Developers are standardizing design, optimizing procurement, and streamlining operations and maintenance,” the firm notes.

That observation is consistent with the US Energy Information Agency report cited at the top of this article, which took note of a recent drop in project delays. “In the third quarter of 2025, solar projects representing about 20% of planned capacity reported a delay, a decrease from 25% in the same period in 2024,” US EIA reported on November 10, while also noting that most delays involve only a month or two of setback towards the end of a project.

Advanced weather and market prediction tools also play a role in Deloitte’s outlook, along with robotic installation equipment and other autonomous systems.

The robotics element alone could be a game changer. The leading energy firm AES, for example, recently completed the first half its 2-gigawatt Belleville solar-plus-storage project in California. At 2 gigawatts, the project is equivalent to the electricity demand of 467,000 households. AES credits its Maximo robotic system with speeding up construction while improving safety and quality.

On top of all that, the next generation of higher performing, lower costing solar cells is emerging into the market. Other emerging trends — agrivoltaics and community solar, for example — could also support persistence and recovery in the US solar industry. If you have any thoughts about that, drop a note in the comment thread. Better yet, find your representatives in Congress and let them know what you think.

Photo: The US solar industry has been battling for survival this year, but signs of persistence and recovery are already brewing (courtesy of NREL).