Midjourney generated image of ubbles of greenhouse gases over the earth

Midjourney generated image of bubbles of greenhouse gases over the earth.

France Prepares For 4ºC By 2100

March 14, 20255 months ago Steve Hanley 0 Comments

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While US energy secretary Chris Wright is running around telling people that global heating may be a problem but it doesn’t even make his Top Ten list of things to be concerned about, France this week unveiled its latest climate adaptation plan, which is based on the assumption that that the average temperature of the Earth will spike to as much as 4° C by 2100. For those of us who are math challenged, that is a mere 75 years from now or about 3 generations in human terms. The gods of Google say there have been about 10,000 generations of humans so far.

According to Euro News, France is preparing for a future in which average global temperatures rise to 4° C (7.2° F) above pre-industrial levels, sparking more wildfires and eroding its coastlines in its third national climate adaptation plan. Unveiled this week, it outlines dozens of measures to protect French citizens as temperatures climb. For those who are accustomed to thinking in terms of Fahrenheit, the Celsius scale tends to understate how our minds understand temperature. One degree F is 9/5 of one degree C — almost double. Imagine sitting in your living room where the temperature is a comfortable 72° F. You are watching your favorite sporting contest whilst quaffing a Bud Lite when suddenly the temperature rises to almost 80° C. Suddenly you are cranking up the air conditioner but it is not responding. You start opening windows but the breeze coming in is hotter than your living room and then you realize that an extra 4° C is making you uncomfortably warm.

First shared by former Prime Minister Michel Barnier in last October, France’s plan has received almost 6,000 public comments and has been developed in consultation with scientists and other experts. “Adapting is not giving up,” said Agnès Pannier-Runacher, France’s minister of ecological transition, biodiversity, forests, the sea and fisheries on X this week. Why anyone would post such a thing on an anti-social media sewer that caters to climate deniers is a mystery. “The government’s policy rests on two legs. On one hand, it continues to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; on the other, it adapts to the effects of climate change.”

France Plans To Be Carbon Neutral By 2050

France intends to reach carbon neutrality by 2050, Its emissions have already dropped by 20% since 2017, according to Pannier-Runacher. But even if net zero is achieved by mid-century, scientists still predict temperatures in the country will climb by at least 4° C by 2100 due to the continued impacts of burning fossil fuels. You may want to underline the words “at least” in your head.

The new plan focuses on four priority areas, in geographic terms — coastlines, mountains, forests, and agriculture. “There is a very strong expectation from local elected officials, particularly in coastal, mountain or forest communities, but also from healthcare professionals and nursing home residents, who are already experiencing the effects of global warming,” she told Le Monde. The climate package is designed to help the business, transport, infrastructure, and agriculture sectors gradually adapt to the consequences of an overheating planet. It incorporates a trajectory for climate adaptation that is based on projections from the national weather agency Météo-France. In an incremental way, it prepares the country for temperature increases of 2° C by 2030, 2.7° C by 2050, and 4° C by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels. Conversely, the US plan is to support the French plan by driving up average global temperatures to match France’s expectations.

The plan envisions five categories of action — protecting people, ensuring the resilience of territories and essential services, adapting human activities, protecting natural and cultural heritage, and mobilizing national resources. Specific measures include creating a national map of exposure to natural risks, maintaining affordable insurance offerings even in high risk areas, and improving housing to remain comfortable despite rising temperatures. “Adapting also means rethinking work,” Pannier-Runacher said. “Faced with heatwaves, it is necessary to adjust schedules, strengthen medical monitoring, and protect workers.” In the US, meanwhile, republicans are passing laws to prevent employers from giving workers water breaks in hot weather.

Trumpization

She added, “There is a form of Trumpization of minds. Ecology is not a subject reserved for the bobos [bourgeois-bohemian subset] of the big cities.” The current so-called government of the Disunited States has been working overtime, which the help of Elon Musk and a group of teenagers, to eviscerate federal agencies dedicated to climate science. The French government, though it has been accused lately of turning its back on some environmental measures, it is sending a different direction with this climate plan. “The main victims of climate change, those who risk their health or lose their homes and jobs, are the working classes, contrary to what the populists try to make us believe,” Pannier-Runacher said.

France decided to put itself ahead of the curve on climate adaptation after it was surprised by a deadly heatwave in 2003. The country has a detailed national heatwave plan in place, and cities like Paris are taking efforts a step further as they prepare for summer temperatures as hot as 50° C (122º F). Pannier-Runacher said €1.6 billion in budgetary resources will be dedicated to the plan starting this year. That includes €1 billion from the budgets of water agencies and €300 million from the Barnier Fund, which was set up for the prevention of major natural hazards.

Environmental groups have welcomed the plan, but raised concerns about how the measures will be implemented, and whether they are ambitious enough. Speaking to AFP, Nicolas Richard, vice president of France Nature Environment, said it presents “a certain number of good intentions” but faces uncertainty about “whether they are funded and how they are managed.” According to a recent report from the Institute for Climate Economics, between €1 billion and €2.5 billion should be invested annually just in new buildings, €4.4 billion for housing renovation, and at least €1.5 billion per year for agriculture.

Challenges Ahead

People may quibble over the details of the French plan or wonder where the money will come from to implement it. Others will ask what happens if Marine Le Pen and her far right National Rally party win control of the French government. According to Wikipedia, NR opposes immigration and advocates for significant cuts to legal immigration, protection of French identity, and stricter control of illegal immigration. It also supports a “more balanced” and “independent” French foreign policy which included France leaving NATO. If that sounds familiar, it should. It is the same jingoist cant espoused by the MAGAlomaniacs in the US who are taking a sledgehammer to environmental policies.

The takeaway here is that France is thinking about how a hotter world will impact the country and its citizens, something the US refuses to do. Ever since the Paris Climate Accords of 2015, we have trained ourselves to think of 1.5° C. Now France is saying out loud for everyone to hear that 4° C is the more likely scenario. That’s something new and it should scare the bejezus out of anyone who is paying attention.

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France Plans To Be Carbon Neutral By 2050

Trumpization

Challenges Ahead

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Steve Hanley