Storm That Sank Bayesian Was The Result Of Global Heating
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The world was shocked last week when Bayesian, a 184-foot-long sailboat with the the tallest mast in the world (>200 feet), sank in less than a minute while anchored off the coast of Sicily. Authorities in Italy say they are considering filing criminal charges as a result of the tragedy, but the real culprit, some say, is global heating that has made the waters of the Mediterranean Sea hotter than ever before. Luca Mercalli, the president of the Italian Meteorological Society, told The Guardian the high temperatures created a huge amount of energy which made the storms more intense. “For example, 30 years ago an event of this kind might have brought winds of 100 km/h,” he said. “Today it’s 150 km/h because sea temperatures of three degrees higher means an enormous quantity of energy for storms, and when cold air arrives it’s explosive.”
Sea temperatures in the Mediterranean have reached 30° C (86° F), three degrees Celsius hotter than average. The sea surface temperature around Sicily on August 19 was between 27.3° C and 30.5° C due to two months of consecutive heatwaves. The most recent hot spell was broken last weekend by a sudden blast of cold air and heavy storms across Italy, creating just the sort of explosive storm Mercalli predicted.
Bayesian left the Sicilian port of Milazzo on August 14, 2024, and sailed for a few days around the Aeolian Islands and off the historic coastal village of Cefalù. It moored about 700 meters (2400 feet) off the port of Porticello after its journey was disrupted by bad weather. The powerful waterspout that toppled Bayesian lasted just a few minutes. A boat moored nearby was unscathed. “Whoever was in that position at that time would have experienced these conditions,” said Mercalli. “Episodes of such speed and intensity mean that even if you are prepared, it is difficult to react in time.”
A Direct Link To Global Heating
Roberto Danavaro, a marine biologist at the University of Ancona, said there was “an absolute direct link” between the anomalous sea temperatures this summer and the storm. Several other tornadoes have occurred recently close to Italy’s coastline, including in the Adriatic and off Liguria, in northern Italy. In May of 2023, a similar violent storm killed four people when their tourist boat capsized on Lake Maggiore. “Occurrences of tornadoes or Mediterranean hurricanes have been increasing in frequency over the last 10 to 15 years. And based on the high temperatures, we are likely to see more in September and October. The heat of this summer will not bring anything good,” he said.
“If this rate of warming is going to be continuing in the future, it’s very possible these phenomena will be common and not rare,” Michalis Sioutas, a meteorology PhD who studies waterspouts in Greece and is a board member of the Hellenic Meteorological Society, told Wired. “It’s very possible to talk about waterspouts or even tornadoes and extreme storms becoming common.” Paolo Sottocorona, a meteorologist, told The Guardian a waterspout of the intensity that struck Bayesian was “the extreme of the extreme. This is because the situation in the Mediterranean has reached temperatures that were never reached before, and this brings instability. Unfortunately, these events, which were once anomalous, in the sense they almost never happened, are now beginning to occur more often. This is a sign of climate change,” he said.
Italy In The Cross Hairs
Italy has become known by scientists as one of Europe’s climate risk hot spots owing to a range of vulnerabilities including its geographical location, diverse topography, and densely inhabited Mediterranean coastal areas. Within the last three years, the country has been hit by devastating floods, landslides, wildfires, record breaking heatwaves, and the collapse of a glacier in the Dolomites which killed 11 hikers. In 2023, there were 378 extreme climate events in Italy, an increase of 22% over 2022, according to a report by the environmental agency, Legambiente, published last December. “These events are only going to get more frequent and more intense,” said Mercalli.
Wired says that tornadic waterspouts spring up only in stormy weather with strong winds, lightning, and sometimes hail, and are the product of two main ingredients — wind shear and rising, unstable air. The process begins when masses of cold and warm air collide. This brings together winds from different directions that start to spin around each other, creating vortices. If a thunderstorm also converges in the area, it can provide the instability, sucking warm air up into itself at dizzying speeds. Over water, it starts carrying moisture up as well.
That perfect storm of waterspout conditions hit Italy around the time the Bayesian sank. In recent days, a mass of high level cold air swept down from the Alps and over the country’s western coast, where it met the exceptionally warm air just above the sea surface. Four days before the Bayesian went down, sea surface temperatures were the hottest ever recorded across the Mediterranean Sea.
“Warmer oceans have more energy and more humidity to transfer to the atmosphere, the most important fuels for storms,” said Luca Mercalli. “The contrast of warm sea and colder air that flows over energizes vertical winds that could result in downbursts or waterspouts.” A downburst is a powerful cascade of wind and rain from a thundercloud.
The Takeaway
The sinking of the Bayesian was caused by a combination of several factors. According to The Guardian, Italian prosecutors are investigating the incident. Their focus is on whether the captain and crew took all the necessary safety measures to prevent the tragedy. Investigators from the nearby town of Termini Imerese have questioned all the survivors who were transferred to the Domina Zagarella hotel. Prosecutors are considering potential manslaughter charges.
Experts are baffled by how the Bayesian sank within 60 seconds. Italian media, speaking with coastguard sources, reported that a hatch near the bow of the Bayesian was left open, which may have allowed water to enter the ship when the storm occurred. According to reports, the Bayesian went under bow first. In addition, the ship had a movable keel to allow it access to shallower waters. Initial reports indicate the keel was partially raised when the storm struck, which would have destabilized the ship when powerful winds struck that enormous 200+ foot high mast. Some experts speculate that the crew may have underestimated the weather bulletin that was issued in the middle of the night.
In other words, human error may have been a factor in the sinking, but in a larger context, human error is also responsible for the escalating climate crisis. There are still powerful forces spreading the lie that global heating is not taking place and nothing unusual is happening, despite melting glaciers, more frequent storms with heavier rain, and extreme temperatures in many places around the globe. Addressing an overheating environment should be our first priority, but because of the greed that is at the heart of most human interactions, it probably will be well down the list of priorities for humanity. In which case, we are destined to learn a hard lesson — “It’s not nice to fool Mother Nature.” We have been warned.
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