Global Offshore Wind To Reach 200 Gigawatts By 2030
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The Global Wind Energy Council published its inaugural Global Offshore Wind Report this week, which shows that not only has offshore wind grown at an average of 21% each year since 2013, but that the sector could install an additional 200 gigawatts (GW) of capacity by 2030.
The first edition of the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) Global Offshore Wind Report revealed that the global offshore wind market has grown by an average of 21% each year since 2013, and has now reached a total capacity of 23 GW. Over 4 GW was installed in both 2017 and 2018, accounting for 8% of total new installations during both years.
The report also provided a market outlook representing a “business-as-usual” (BAU) scenario as well as an upside scenario. The BAU scenario — which does not include further technical development or further opportunities for offshore wind — expects double-digit growth for the global offshore wind market based on current policies and expected auctions and tenders. Specifically, the BAU scenario sees annual installations of between 15 to 20 GW after 2025 a realistic chance based largely on growth in China and other Asian markets. This will result in 165 GW of new installed capacity between now and 2030, bringing total installed capacity to nearly 190 GW.
GWEC expects the Asian offshore wind market (including China) will move to become the largest offshore region globally by 2030, thanks to growth in key markets such as Taiwan, Vietnam, Japan, India, and South Korea, and supported by the rising dominance of China. Total installed capacity under a business-as-usual scenario for the Asian region sits at 100 GW by 2030.
Europe will see relatively flat growth over the next few years, but nevertheless boasts a stable outlook supported in part by the UK Offshore Wind Sector Deal signed in March of this year. By 2030, GWEC expects total installed capacity for the region under a business-as-usual scenario will reach 78 GW. Across the Pond, GWEC also expects offshore wind to become more of a priority in the United States, which will finish the next decade with installed capacity of 10 GW.
The upside scenario — which does include the role of additional potential for the industry — includes the role of advances in floating technology and increased cost competitiveness across the industry, resulting in greater volume in mature markets as well as the opening of new offshore markets. Based on its upside scenario, GWEC expects a more positive outlook of over 200 GW of new capacity to be installed between now and 2030.
“We are standing within reach of a truly global offshore wind industry,” said Karin Ohlenforst, Director of Market Intelligence at GWEC. “Based on government targets, auction results, and pipeline data we expect to see 190 GW of new capacity to be installed by 2030, but this does not represent the full potential of offshore wind. Many new countries are preparing to join the offshore wind revolution, while floating offshore wind represents a game-changing technological development that can add even more volumes in the years to come.”
“The industry is continuing to make significant strides on cost-competitiveness, with an average LCOE of $50/MWh being within reach,” added Alastair Dutton, Chair of Global Offshore Wind Task Force at GWEC. “This achievement increases the attractiveness of offshore wind in mature markets where a number of governments are discussing long-term climate targets that, if they are to be achieved, must seriously consider the contribution large-scale offshore wind can make. New offshore markets represent significant potential and if industry and governments can work together, as we have seen recently in the case of Taiwan, we can build the necessary policy frameworks at greater speed to ensure growth can be achieved sooner than later.”
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