Economic growth once pulled fuel demand upward by default. Electrification, efficiency, slowing population growth, and the end of China’s first-build materials pulse are weakening that old relationship.
For most of the 20th century, a simple assumption worked well enough for energy forecasting: when economies grew, fuel demand grew with them. More people, more housing, more vehicles, more factories, more roads, more ports, more airports, more concrete, more steel, more coal, oil, and gas. The relationship was not … [continued]
China’s infrastructure and property buildout was the materials event of the modern economy, and its decline changes the denominator for steel, cement, coal, freight, and fuels.
One of the easiest ways to get long-range energy and materials demand wrong is to treat first-build infrastructure demand as a permanent condition. Countries build their first stock of housing, highways, ports, rail, power systems, water systems, industrial parks, and concrete-and-steel cities once. After that, the demand structure changes. The … [continued]
The 21st-century population story is peak, plateau and divergence, not a second 20th-century-style doubling.
One of the easiest ways to get 2100 wrong is to carry the 20th-century population curve forward as if it still defines the future. The world went from about 2.5 billion people in 1950 to more than 8 billion today, and that expansion shaped modern assumptions about food, energy, cities, … [continued]
If the human population continues to grow for numerous decades more, then what does it matter if a slowly increasing portion of the world’s energy mix is comprised of renewable energy capacity?
A new report published by analyst firm GlobalData has predicted that global cumulative hydropower installed capacity is expected to increase from 1,064 GW last year to 1,407 GW in 2020, and reach total investment of $75 billion. Published earlier this week, the report — Hydropower (Large Hydro, Small Hydro and … [continued]
This article first published on RenewEconomy Deutsche Bank analysts have painted a bullish outlook for the global solar market, noting that solar PV is about to enter a “third growth phase” where it can be deployed without subsidies, and can resist a backlash from utilities. The report by analysts led … [continued]
In the space of two days at the end of May three separate reports were released covering the soaring growth of Japan’s solar industry. Not only can solar replace nuclear power in Japan, but it is also set to become the world’s largest solar revenue market in 2013, thanks at … [continued]
In the midst of the Copenhagen negotiations last week, the White House announced a proposal to give a huge increase in tax breaks to manufacturers who produce wind, solar, geothermal, or other clean energy technologies. The goal of the tax breaks is to stimulate more job growth and promote … [continued]
