More Than 230 GW Of New Wind Power Capacity In China By 2024
MAKE Consulting is forecasting more than 230 GW of wind power capacity to be installed by 2024 in China, which is having a huge impact on MAKE’s 10-year outlook.
MAKE has increased China’s expected capacity addition by 3% from last quarter’s outlook, and China’s expected growth is such that it has pushed the global outlook up 1%.
In the near-term, MAKE is expecting policy support and investment in transmission to drive growth, though the country’s offshore wind market is expected to remain sluggish until 2019. Long-term growth for offshore wind will increase substantially after that, with more focus in the long-term on offshore wind and the levelized cost of energy.
China’s Northern provinces are expected to account for nearly two-thirds of the total capacity installations in 2015, with six provinces making it into the top 10 rankings. MAKE expects Xinjiang to dominate China’s wind industry for the next three to five years, compared to Inner Mongolia’s declining growth.
MAKE’s Q2/2015 Global Wind Power Market Outlook Update leaves the Americans relatively unchanged from Q1’s outlook, with Brazil’s shifting market dynamics the only real change in the region. Europe remains similarly unchanged, while MAKE has upgraded the outlook for the Middle East and Africa regions by 6%, due primarily to confidence in South Africa and Egypt, rather than the regions as a whole.
Conversely, MAKE has downgraded the Asia Pacific region (excluding China) due mainly to a lack of market activity in South Korea and New Zealand. India’s wind industry market is expected to remain stable, with multiple investment announcements supporting MAKE’s original Q1 outlook.
MAKE concludes that the firm order intake in Q1 for the wind industry increased by more than 50% compared to the first quarter of 2014, reaching 12 GW, with demand in China accounting for nearly half of that figure.
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