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Published on March 21st, 2014 | by Joshua S Hill

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California May Cut Transport Fuel Consumption 1 Billion Gallons+ Per Year, Blazing US Trail

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March 21st, 2014 by
 
A new report from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) has shown that California may cut its transport fuel consumption by more than a billion gallons per year by 2020 due to policy initiatives and a burgeoning electric and high-efficiency vehicle culture.

According to Bloomberg, “the analysis puts forward two scenarios for the development of gasoline demand in the state over the next seven years.”

The ‘base-case’ scenario sees consumption dropping from 12.3 billion gallons in 2014 to 11.2 billion gallons in 2020, which amounts to a reduction of 9%.

The more aggressive scenario sees a drop of 13%, down to 10.6 billion gallons in 2020, thanks to strict efficiency standards being met.

“California will experience a significant shift in the make-up of both transport fuel demand and the composition of the vehicle fleet,” said Salim Morsy, advanced transportation analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance. “A drop in net fossil fuel demand may put pressure on California oil refiners’ margins in the coming seven years.”

BNEF highlight several factors which they believe are likely to be influential impactors on the California market, including the federal fuel efficiency standards — more commonly referred to as CAFE standards — as well as the California zero-emissions vehicle program, the federal Renewable Fuel Standard, and California Low Carbon Fuel Standard.

According to BNEF, each of these policy initiatives is likely to encourage and help Californian drivers to minimise their gasoline consumption and move to hybrid electric and gas fueled vehicles. Meanwhile, the report sees a continuing influx of electric vehicles entering the State’s fleet, minimising emissions even further.

A White Paper summarizing the analysis on California’s evolving transport fuel market has been published today and is available at http://about.bnef.com/white-papers/.

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About the Author

I'm a Christian, a nerd, a geek, a liberal left-winger, and believe that we're pretty quickly directing planet-Earth into hell in a handbasket! I work as Associate Editor for the Important Media Network and write for CleanTechnica and Planetsave. I also write for Fantasy Book Review (.co.uk), Amazing Stories, the Stabley Times and Medium.   I love words with a passion, both creating them and reading them.



  • BlackRichEnglish

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  • Doug

    The number of gasoline stations is already declining and the number of Public EV chargers is quickly increasing. My understanding is that many gas stations are marginally profitable – a reduction in gasoline sales may accelerate their demise.

    • Bob_Wallace

      Most gas stations make little off gas and most of their money off mini-market stuff.

      I doubt that EVs have caused enough drop in fuel use to close any stations yet. Driving is down and vehicle efficiency is up which might be thinning out the ranks a bit.

      • Doug

        According to Forbes, they make 5-10 cents per gallon – $100,000,000 is a lot of cola and ding dongs.

        http://www.forbes.com/sites/sageworks/2014/01/21/profit-margins-at-gasoline-stations-have-increased/

        • Bob_Wallace

          Gas stations have been operating on a very thin margin – less than 1.5%. They had a good year in 2013. 3%.

          A 20 oz Coke or Pepsi is $1 at the Dollar Store. I suspect they make something on the sale.

          At a gas station $1.79 per bottle is common. 50% margin?

          • Ronald Brakels

            Tim-Tams. A chocolate biscuit in Australia. Sold at a huge markup to cannabis users and others late at night at service stations. Tim-Tams almost destroyed Australia’s third largest food wholesaler. The story is the wholesaler got tardy paying its suppliers, so Arnotts, the biscuit company, stopped suppling Tim-Tams and only Tim-Tams, and as a result the wholesaler lost so much custom they almost went bankrupt and had to be bailed out by another company. Do not under estimate the power of the biscuit company. And do not belittle the revenue that flows from the service station chocolate bikkie mark up.

          • Bob_Wallace

            Wha….?

            You chappies don’t import Doritos?

          • Ronald Brakels

            Well now we do. But in the past Australia was the domain of CC’s corn chips. We even had a lock on the New Zealand corn chip market until the godammed Americans and their goddammed Doritos stormed the beaches of Wellington. Long had the people of the Island of the Long White Cloud sweltered under the oppression of their Australian Corn Chip Masters and once they tasted freedom in the form of American Doritos they cast down the Australian corn chips and they were crushed into their loamy dirt. But they was not ground down by the hairy hobbit feet of New Zealanders! No, they were pulverised under the heel of American Dorito imperialism! And the Dorito Imperialista was not content with merely taking Australia’s unofficial seventh state. They wanted the whole shmear. Nowadays it’s hard to find CC’s in Australia. It’s mostly all Doritos. Just because the damn things taste better! Well, that and the fact that your tax money goes towards making American corn chips cheaper for Australians. Thanks.

            But while you can take away our corn chips, you can never take the great awe inspiring they gave birth to. Sir, I give you the CC’s jingle

            You can say no to Hercules,
            Squeezed into dungerees,
            Seized by refferees,
            With no trapeze abilities,

            You can say no to bees of ease,
            With Lebenese luxuries,
            But even Japanese displeased,
            With facilities in the Pyrenees,
            Can’t say no to CC’s.

            But you can say no to effigies,
            Of MPs in avaries,
            But even these escapees,
            Teased by fleas in embassies,
            Can’t say no to CC’s.

            You can’t say no to CC’s.

          • Ronald Brakels

            Wow. Rant mode activated much.

          • Bob_Wallace

            Next we load our landing barges with Santitas.

            The horror never ceases….

          • LookingForward

            ROFL!!!

  • susannaschick

    oh! those poor starving oil companies! however will they survive? :-) I’m certainly enjoying sticking it to them. Now, if we could just ban fracking…

    • Bob_Wallace

      Chevron is the world’s largest producer of geothermal energy. They, and others, will likely look for new business opportunity as they see the oil business declining.

      Now, let’s get busy and speed them along by getting as many electric cars on the road as possible.

    • Doug Cutler

      Things keep going this way pretty soon the oil companies will be looking for subsidies.

      • LookingForward

        They allready get subsidies, been so for decades…that’s 1 of the discussions now a days, if those subsidies are cut, renewable and efficienty will grow bigger even faster, which needs to happen to stop climate change.

        • Doug Cutler

          I’m with you. It was just a little tongue in cheek. FF gets by on $4B per year in tax breaks, social costs of negative medical outcomes, taxpayer picking up tabs for spills, train wrecks, etc. not to mention trillion dollar foreign oil wars. All before extant and impending drag on economy from climate change.

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