Which Will Be The 1st EV Model To Break Into The Top 10 Of Global Auto Sales? (Poll)

July 26th, 2013 by Zachary Shahan

Last year, the Toyota Prius became the 3rd-highest-selling automobile of any type around the world. Of course, when the car first hit the market, there was plenty of anti-hybrid talk and claims that it would never sell and would soon be off the market. Obviously, those critics were way off. The same thing is happening today with plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), and especially with 100% electric vehicles. Ironically, the anti-PEV push seems to be stronger than the anti-hybrid push was, even while early PEV sales crush early hybrid sales. (I imagine this intense criticism is due to the fact that switching to plug-in EVs is in numerous ways a much bigger shift than switching to conventional hybrids — for individuals and for society as a whole.)

Just the other day, I shared news that PEV Sales have doubled in 2013 compared to 2012. At that time, I also shared this Department of Energy (DOE) quotation:

“The latest numbers also show how the early years of the PEV market have seen much faster growth than the early years of the hybrid vehicle market. Thirty months after the first hybrid was introduced, monthly sales figures were under 3,000.

“By comparison, PEVs – which were first introduced in December 2010 – report nearly 9,000 cars sold in the last month.”

Yet, I neglected to share this awesome graph from the DOE:

Clearly, PEVs are going somewhere. Michael Graham Richard of TreeHugger notes: “Not only are sales much stronger at the equivalent time after introduction… but the trajectory of growth is also much steeper, a good sign.” Indeed!

This immediately brings to mind this graph showing the exponential growth curve of adoption of various technologies:

“Technology adoption curves for a range of modern innovations. Victorian Government”

Yes, if history tells us anything, I think it tells us that PEV sales could indeed skyrocket within a few years (especially with battery prices dropping so fast and EVs already competing so well with gasmobiles when it comes to consumer cost). So, the one of the questions that comes to my mind is, which PEV will be first to break into the top 10 of global auto sales?

I was meeting with a long-time CleanTechnica reader and commenter in Ireland this week. One thing that he suggested in our conversations was that we conduct more polls here on CleanTechnica. Polls are fun. Conducting more reader polls has long been on my list of things I’d like to do to enhance the site. This seems like as opportune a time as any to start doing so. Below is a fresh CleanTechnica poll for the question posed above. Give us your vote! (If it helps you, check out my most recent US PEV sales update.)

Which Will Be the 1st EV Model to Break into the Top 10 of Global Auto Sales?If you would like more info on any of these cars, here are some resources for you:

Keep up to date with all the hottest cleantech news by subscribing to our (free) cleantech newsletter, or keep an eye on sector-specific news by getting our (also free) solar energy newsletter, electric vehicle newsletter, or wind energy newsletter.

Tags: Chevy Volt, GM, Nissan, Nissan Leaf, Tesla, Tesla Model S, toyota prius

About the Author

Zachary Shahan spends most of his time here on CleanTechnica as the director/chief editor. Otherwise, he's probably enthusiastically fulfilling his duties as the director/editor of Solar Love, EV Obsession, Planetsave, or Bikocity. Zach is recognized globally as a solar energy, electric car, and wind energy expert. If you would like him to speak at a related conference or event, connect with him via social media. You can connect with Zach on any popular social networking site you like. Links to all of his main social media profiles are on ZacharyShahan.com.

Rif

“Top 10 of Global Auto Sales”

Global sales and the list of options does not even include a single Renault model? Sadly a very US centric list.

Renault Zoe stand a good chance to become a top seller model. It has the right size so that lots of families can consider it as a second car, a situation where limited range does not matter much.
- http://electrobatics.wordpress.com/ arne-nl
  
  If it isn’t sold in the US it won’t stand a chance of breaking into the global top 10. It also isn’t sold in Japan, another key market for EV’s. You’ll need a vehicle that is sold globally.
  - Rif
    
    Do not worry, I am sure you will see Renault EVs sold in US in a few years time.
    
    Did you read the list? It even includes a car that is not sold anywhere in the world for another 4 years. Yep, full US navel gazing.
Loren McDonald

Since the question was top 10 in global sales, I think I’m going to go with the Chevy Volt + Opel/Vauxhall Ampera. I could be wrong, and hope I’m wrong, but I think most mass consumers aren’t yet ready for a pure EV and will “pass-through” PHEVs before buying a pure EV.

The Volt/Ampera could scale globally in US, Australia, Germany, UK. The Volt/Ampera eliminates range concerns, the car is fairly normal looking, is a decent sized car, and not “kind of ugly” like the Leaf.The Volt/Ampera requires less “change” for the buyer than a pure EV.

The Prius scaled because it cost about $20,000+ US, was a significant improvement in gas mileage versus a typical car – and made a statement to the world when you were behind the wheel. The Leaf needs a range of about 150 miles and to be redesigned before it will really scale in sales (IMHO); BMW i3 will be a bit too expensive I think and is kind of a tweener model; the Tesla Model C will possibly break into the Top 10 globally in about 2020 … but the Volt will have about 4-5 year head start on it.
- http://zacharyshahan.com/ Zachary Shahan
  
  Good case.
Shiggity

I put Other. I think Nissan will get it first with an EV that’s a redesign of the Leaf, or the Leaf 2.0 if you will. A 150 mile EV that looks good starting for ~27,500$ in 2015 is do-able.

Tesla and Nissan seem to be the only ones truly committed to 100% EVs.
- http://zacharyshahan.com/ Zachary Shahan
  
  I was counting “future versions of the Leaf,” but yeah, they could create one with a diff name that might take the top spot. i voted for the Leaf. clearly, it and the Model “C” have dominated the results. currently, ~31% & 27%, respectively.
- AndY1
  
  Don’t forget GM’s Spark EV.
Bob_Wallace

I’m not going to predict which will first break into the top ten because I don’t know who will be able to build their EV with an ~200 mile range and a cost close to an ICEV. If someone gets their hands on that breakthrough battery and other manufactures can’t market something close to as good, they’ll be the winner.

We know very little about what is going on behind closed doors. Major battery manufacturers are working to bring the best battery, but they aren’t talking.

Based on the little we know I’d suggest we watch GM. They are apparently road/track testing the Envia battery. Envia’s battery supposedly stores 400kWh/kg, which is 3x times as much as the LEAF battery holds. If true that means GM could market a 200 mile range EV with a smaller (cheaper/lighter) battery than the LEAF.

The ~80 mile range LEAF is selling for $28,800 before subsidies. If GM could market a ~200 mile range Spark EV for less than $25k I suspect it would move quickly to the top ten.
- http://zacharyshahan.com/ Zachary Shahan
  
  i think you just voted for the Spark EV
  - http://electrobatics.wordpress.com/ arne-nl
    
    As did I, it seems to be an attractive proposition and small cars are gaining popularity.
    - http://zacharyshahan.com/ Zachary Shahan
      
      I could see it breaking through. Very curious & excited to see how it does in its first year, and if GM runs with it or leaves it on the back burner.
- mzso
  
  ” Envia’s battery supposedly stores 400kWh/kg, which is 3x times as much as the LEAF battery holds.”
  That would be nice, bit it would mean it stores like 2000 times as much. But anyway Li-ion batter hold around 180-200 Wh/kg so more like 2-2.3 times energy.
  - Bob_Wallace
    
    I believe the Nissan LEAF battery stores 120 Wh/kg (24 KWh/200kg).
    
    How do you get 400/120 = 2,000x?
    - http://electrobatics.wordpress.com/ arne-nl
      
      You wrote 400 kWh/kg instead of 400 Wh/kg.
      - Bob_Wallace
        
        I did do that, didn’t I?
    - mzso
      
      Any reference?
Ivor O’Connor

How many cars must be sold currently per year to break in to the top 10?
- Ross
  
  About 500,000+ for the make, assuming some further recovery of the US economy.
  http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2013/01/2012-usa-auto-sales-brand-rankings.html
  - http://zacharyshahan.com/ Zachary Shahan
    
    Thanks, Ross!
mzso

Neither. Some future model. Near 2020. I think the people who are willing to buy EVs will be saturated in a few years. And for EVs to reach main stream we need matured (cheap) ~4x energy density batteries. (Probably LiS)
- http://zacharyshahan.com/ Zachary Shahan
  
  Have a poll on the year this happens coming soon.
Marion Meads

It would be nice to know who the critics about the Prius were. It is payback time, and they need to lose credibility in every other statement that they are going to make. They’ve had their fun in the sun, let the mud campaign rain on the naysayers.
- S.Nkm
  
  I can count one of my neighbor. I can tell because of the big “Prius Repellent” lettering with arrows pointing to 2 high-diameter, black soot emitting exhaust pipes sticking out behind the cabin of his monster pickup truck, along with the mandatory McCain/Palin, God Bless America, and something about rifles stickers.
  - http://zacharyshahan.com/ Zachary Shahan
    
    Wow, that’s quite a neighbor!
- http://zacharyshahan.com/ Zachary Shahan
  
  Seriously. Naysayers have had too much attention & too many megaphones.