Germany’s Electricity Surplus Nearly Quadruples In 2 Years

April 9th, 2013 by Zachary Shahan

For all those acting like Germany is going to be without electricity (or have to import a lot) from its energy revolution (well underway), the Telegraph has a note for you:

Germany solar roof courtesy Shutterstock

“Figures just published appeared to vindicate Germany’s clean energy revolution, showing that the country’s electricity surplus had nearly quadrupled between 2011 and 2012.”

Thanks to Climate Denial Crock of the Week for the share.

Unfortunately, the Telegraph then goes on to mention the price tag for this shift, but it inaccurately equates that to net cost. (I know, what’s new?) If a full accounting had been conducted, the savings that come from less pollution, less in the way of fossil fuel imports, and global warming mitigation would be included. Furthermore, the economic benefits that come from solar power being a job-creating energy option would also be included, as would the benefits from supplying power at times of very expensive peak power demand.

But hey, that wouldn’t make for the controversy that big media thrives on, and it would fit the Telegraph‘s anti-green agenda.

At least it’s good to see that the Telegraph reported on the electricity surplus story.

Keep up to date with all the hottest cleantech news by subscribing to our (free) cleantech newsletter, or keep an eye on sector-specific news by getting our (also free) solar energy newsletter, electric vehicle newsletter, or wind energy newsletter.

Tags: Germany, Germany electricity exports, Germany Solar

About the Author

Zachary Shahan spends most of his time here on CleanTechnica as the director/chief editor. Otherwise, he's probably enthusiastically fulfilling his duties as the director/editor of Solar Love, EV Obsession, Planetsave, or Bikocity. Zach is recognized globally as a solar energy, electric car, and wind energy expert. If you would like him to speak at a related conference or event, connect with him via social media. You can connect with Zach on any popular social networking site you like. Links to all of his main social media profiles are on ZacharyShahan.com.

Bill_Woods

Using 2011 as the basis for comparison is kind of misleading, though exports are up a bit.

Exports – Imports = Net exports (TW-h)
2003: 53.7 – 46.0 = 7.7
2004: 51.5 – 44.2 = 7.3
2005: 61.9 – 53.5 = 8.5
2006: 65.9 – 46.1 = 19.8
2007: 63.4 – 44.3 = 19.1
2008: 62.7 – 40.2 = 22.5
2009: 54.9 – 40.6 = 14.3
2010: 59.9 – 42.2 = 17.7
2011: 56.0 – 49.7 = 6.3
2012: 67.3 – 44.2 = 23.1

https://www.entsoe.eu/data/data-portal/exchange/

1 TW-h/yr = 114 MW
- http://zacharyshahan.com/ Zachary Shahan
  
  good call. thanks, Bill.
  - Bill_Woods
    
    By the way, Germany’s exports show considerable seasonal variation — higher in the winter, even though domestic demand is also higher. For obvious reasons, solar power is almost irrelevant in the winter.
    
    Half-year: Exports – Imports = Net exports (TW-h)
    04.03 – 09.03: 53.7 – 46.0 = 7.7
    10.03 – 03.04: 32.4 – 21.1 = 11.3
    04.04 – 09.04: 19.9 – 23.2 = -3.2
    10.04 – 03.05: 34.5 – 22.4 = 12.1
    04.05 – 09.05: 25.2 – 29.8 = -4.7
    10.05 – 03.06: 38.0 – 22.5 = 15.5
    04.06 – 09.06: 26.3 – 25.3 = 1.1
    10.06 – 03.07: 38.4 – 20.9 = 17.5
    04.07 – 09.07: 25.2 – 24.5 = 0.7
    10.07 – 03.08: 40.0 – 19.0 = 21.0
    04.08 – 09.08: 23.8 – 22.0 = 1.8
    10.09 – 03.09: 34.1 – 20.1 = 14.0
    04.09 – 09.09: 21.6 – 20.8 = 0.8
    10.09 – 03.10: 35.2 – 17.7 = 17.5
    04.10 – 09.10: 25.0 – 23.5 = 1.5
    10.10 – 03.11: 35.3 – 20.1 = 15.2
    04.11 – 09.11: 20.6 – 27.3 = -6.6
    10.11 – 03.12: 35.9 – 22.9 = 13.0
    04.13 – 09.12: 28.7 – 23.1 = 5.7
Börje Widerberg

Commentators like The Telegraph only tells half the story about Solar in Germany. In reality there`s two effects for the consumers.

1 a cost because of the subsidy programs

2 a cost decrease because solar has diminished the electricity cost because solar has outcompeted a third of the costly eletricity from intermittent gasturbine-generators.
The net effect is a considerable savings to the Consumers and the effects has been analyzed in depht by Fraunhof Institute based on official data from the Bundesnet Agency.
Börje Widerberg
Pingback: Moody's renewable energy report for Europe spells trouble
Will Poundstone

this is good, the UK is facing an electricity shortage, I think that London and Berlin can work something out to their mutual satisfaction
Steeple

We need to let the high energy cost regions like China and Germany expend their capital to make the necessary mistakes and wrong turns to ultimately make solar competitive against US natural gas. And then we can leapfrog to the best technology once they have figured solar out. Just reversing the game that China has played on the West for the past 20 years.
- Bob_Wallace
  
  We’re past the “necessary mistakes and wrong turns” era of solar.
  
  Solar is being installed at the utility level and powering the grid for less than the price of gas peakers. It’s saving money at the utility level.
  
  Solar is being installed at the end-user level and producing electricity for less than the cost of retail electricity in parts of the US. In another year to four the price of solar will likely fall enough for solar to be cheaper in most of the US, even without subsidies.
  
  There’s no one to leap-frog. It’s now an individual race to cut the overall cost of electricity and to avoid the worst of climate change.
  - Steeple
    
    I hope you’re right; seems like a much more optimistic outlook for solar than wind.
    - Bob_Wallace
      
      Solar panels are now around $0.60/W and will continue to fall in price. First Solar has just announced that they expect to be manufacturing for $0.40/W by 2017.
      
      Germany is installing for an average of $2/W which means that they’ve been able to get the BOS costs down to around $1.50/W. We’re currently about a dollar higher but we’re whittling away on that.
      
      At $2/W solar would be between 8 to 10 cents per kWh in almost all of the lower 40. That is cheaper than the average cost of electricity (12 cents). The wholesale cost of solar is lower than the cost of gas peaker electricity.
      
      Solar is well established. It’s cheap enough to be competitive in parts of the US and there’s no reason why the price won’t continue to drop. Plus it produces during the time of day when electricity is the most expensive.
      
      Wind is already down to 5 cents per kWh and expected to drop to 3 cents. That includes no subsidies. Wind is on the way to being our cheapest way to install new capacity.
      
      The other ‘least expensive’ technology is natural gas, but the price of gas is expected to rise and a few years out gas and solar will pass each other as gas goes up and solar down.
      
      I’d say that in five years wind and solar will be the sources of our least expensive electricity.
      - ThomasGerke
        
        But it is important to note, that wind & solar require independent investors, because if a utility owns a relativly new coal power station & has a multi-year supply contract from a mine, wind&solar could be too cheap to meter, but it makes no economic sense for the utility to switch.
      - Bob_Wallace
        
        Things are looking nasty for the owners of coal mines and plants. Some are locked into long term contracts and protected for a few years, others are likely to go bankrupt.
        
        I included mines because I just saw an Australian discussion about the advisability of speeding up the rate of mining and getting their coal sold while there is still a market rather than risking a stranded asset.
        
        “Australian based analysts at Citigroup says fossil fuel reserves in Australia face significant value destruction in a carbon constrained world, with the value of thermal coal reserves likely to be slashed dramatically if governments get serious about climate action. It says fossil fuel asset owners could be best advised to dig the resource up as quickly as they can.”
        
        http://reneweconomy.com.au/2013/dig-baby-dig-citi-says-coal-investments-at-risk-20942
        
        Brings a smile to my face….
http://www.facebook.com/rhodomel.meads Rhodomel Meads

A few years back, during the large tsunami of Japan, and the disaster of nuclear reactors that followed, Germany has pledged to transition from nuclear and coal energy power plants to solar, wind and other renewables. It would be nice to account for this major shift in their policy, but nuclear power was not even mentioned when it should be significant factor.

When you have installed all the solar panel that you would ever need, what kind of jobs remained thereafter? It only creates jobs during installation and the maintenance job that remained after installation would be a tiny fraction of the original installation. Solar power is therefore not a viable source of long term jobs while it provides great short term jobs.
- http://www.facebook.com/jeff.king.14224 Jeff King
  
  The world receives less than 1% of power from solar and there are still billions who have no access to power. I think that they will be around for a very long while
  - http://www.facebook.com/rhodomel.meads Rhodomel Meads
    
    That is true about the world, but what about Germany that has reached solar PV saturation? The solar jobs will be abroad but no longer in Germany. Germany has shown that it took just a few years to get to saturation level, and so will the world.
    - ThomasGerke
      
      Solar PV saturation in Germany?
      
      In the long run, Germany requires 180-240 GW of PV for a 100% RE-Supply. At the end of 2012 there “just” were 32 GW.
      
      Considering a solar panel life time of 30 years that would require the replacement of 6-8 GW every year. New solar panels have a longer lifetime though.
      
      Everybody knows the solar industry is in a phase of overcapacities & consolidation… but this will be overcome in the coming years.
      
      And chances are not terribly bad that some German companies building machinary for the next generation of solar factories will surive the current difficulties.
      - http://www.facebook.com/rhodomel.meads Rhodomel Meads
        
        As far as factoring in the QUADRUPLING OF SURPLUS IS CONCERNED, you have reached energy production saturation for local consumption.
      - Bob_Wallace
        
        Germany does not have a stand-alone grid. They sell their surplus power to other countries and buy power when they are short from their own sources.
        
        And how about going easy on that caps lock key.
      - ThomasGerke
        
        You misinterpred the information above.
        Germany is a long way from saturation…
        
        It’s simple:
        Photovoltaics and wind connected to the distribution grid reduce demand from large conventional power stations hooked to the transmission grid. In rare cases wind & solar saturate all demand on the distribution grid and electricity is also fed “upstream” into the transmission grid.
        
        Of course this leaves alot power stations idle in Germany, which their operators compensate by producing electricity for foreign markets. (displacing more expansive power plants in neighbouring countries)
        
        Over capacity in conventional power stations… no where near saturation in solar and wind.
  - Bob_Wallace
    
    The billions who have no access to power are starting to get access very rapidly and for an excellent price via micro-solar systems.
    
    For less than the cost of kerosene to light a house a family can purchase a small system that will run a couple of LEDs and charge a cell phone. They can pay for it ‘on time’ with their kerosene savings.
    
    Once people have paid off their basic system they can upgrade to a larger system that will run more lights, a computer or TV or refrigerator.
    
    So far over 1 million micro-solar systems have been installed in Bangladesh. The program is taking off in India, Southeast Asia, Africa and Central America.
    
    Here’s a nice piece about the Bangladesh program…
    
    http://cleantechnica.com/2011/11/17/world-bank-bringing-solar-power-to-over-1-million-homes-shops-in-rural-bangladesh/
    
    Think about how rapidly this is likely to spread. A small local company can easily start up and serve surrounding villages and farms. Installing is not rocket science, someone can learn how in a day or less. In areas where there are few jobs and little opportunity to start your own business there are going to be a lot of people who are eager to build their future.
- Bob_Wallace
  
  You’re right. Solar will create lots of good, green jobs for only the next 30 to 40 years when we will have reached maximum implementation. We’ll have to look elsewhere for the next jobs.
  
  But at the same time we will have greatly cut the price of electricity. Those panels installed today will be paid off in 20 years and will give us another 20+ years of almost free electricity. (Wind turbines will be doing the same.)
  
  Sort of like the interstate highway system. Lots of lots of people earned their paychecks while they were being built. Not relatively few are employed keeping them in shape. But we are greatly enriched by their existence.
  
  (Nuclear won’t be a major factor. It’s too expensive. It takes too long to bring a new reactor on line. It’s too dangerous. Nuclear has peaked and will now fade away. Look at the number of countries who have decided to shut their reactors and the few new reactors being built.)
http://www.facebook.com/edward.kerr.33 Edward Kerr

The fossil fuel idiots (sorry I can no longer be polite to them) are still claiming that Germany’s transition is a total failure. The love to point out that occasionally Germany has to import “dirty” electricity when clean energy falls short of demand but they will never admit to the fact that Germany is a beacon to the world on the issue.
- ThomasGerke
  
  Sadly talking points that reinforce preconcived ideas & common desinformation stick more than facts & reason. A fact of life that is made worse by horrible journalistic quality & ethics throughout the mainstream press on energy policy issues.
  
  That said:
  The complete collapse of the European Emissions Trading system will lead to more exports of electricity from coal power stations from Germany
  A European problem, that will certainly be exploited to claim that “Germany is turning to coal”, while in fact Renewables ( and the diverse investors behind them) capture more and more percentages of the domestic market.