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Published on February 20th, 2012 | by Silvio Marcacci

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Report: Global Biofuels Market Could Double To $185.3 Billion By 2021

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February 20th, 2012 by
 
 

A new report from Pike Research predicts the global biofuels market will double over the next decade, from $82.7 billion in 2011 to $185.3 billion in 2021. Even with this rapid growth, however, significant hurdles remain and could prevent the industry from meeting government mandates.

The new report, Biofuels Markets and Technologies, estimates steady growth though 2016 but rapid production increases between 2017 and 2021 as a result of higher oil prices, emerging mandates, new feedstock availability, and advanced technologies. Total global biofuel production is projected to reach 65.7 billion gallons per year (BGPY) by 2021, and ethanol is expected to maintain its dominance over the industry, with nearly 50 BGPY compared to biodiesel’s 16.2 BGPY.

Several key markets are driving industry growth. Blending mandates now exist in at least 38 countries and 29 states or provinces around the world. The United States, Brazil, and European Union are the three largest markets, and represented 85 percent of global production in 2010. North America led the world in biofuel production with 48 percent of the global market, while the EU accounted for 49 percent of global biodiesel production.

Even with this rapid growth, the industry still may not meet total market needs by 2021. Production volumes are expected to fall short of the estimated 71.8 BGPY biofuels market demand because of a lack of access to inexpensive feedstocks and difficulty obtaining financing.

This failure to meet demand may be more of a reflection on the immense global transportation fuel market than the validity of biofuel technology. Pike Research estimates that by 2021 the global gasoline market will reach 375 BGPY, the global diesel ground transportation market will hit 427 BGPY, and aviation and marine fuel demand could add 200 BGPY to the global market.

Even if the biofuels industry does double current production levels, which hit 29.4 BGPY in 2011, they would still only represent seven percent of the total transportation fuel market.

The technological maturation of first-generation biofuel sources (such as corn, sugarcane, rapeseed and soy), combined with a second generation of fuel sources could increase production estimates even further. “The emergence of advanced conversion pathways and non-food feedstocks could unlock considerable production potential throughout the world,” says the report.

According to Pike, the combination of maturing investments, growing demand, and industry consolidation mean a bullish future for biofuels. “Given the scale of development to date and the crystallization of interests… widespread biofuels commercialization is no longer a question of if but when.”

Source: Green Car Congress

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About the Author

Silvio is Principal at Marcacci Communications, a full-service clean energy and climate-focused public relations company based in Washington, D.C.



  • http://twitter.com/AMJSchroter AMJ Schroter

    I really do not see much potential for bio fuels in an internal combustion engine on land in the long term future. Because it will be replaced by the much more efficient and less resource hungry electric motor.

    • SJ

      Where do you think the electricity comes from? Predominantly coal, nuclear and gas. Coal emits too much greenhouse gas, nuclear is still taboo, gas comes from oil… The trouble with bio fuel is that much of it eats into our food resources, which will become scarcer than oil in the next 9 years if we carry on with this business as usual attitude to climate change.

      • Bob_Wallace

        We’re in the early days of a massive transition from fossil fuels to renewables. Coal is a dead man walking in the US and Europe. China is being very aggressive about installing renewables, they see the need to cut fossil fuel use more than many other governments.

        Biofuels will be, IMO, a niche energy provider. We’re a long way from developing batteries that can power an airliner or ocean-going ship. Biofuels can do that while we use renewable energy for most of our ground transportation.

        To the extent we can make biofuels from ag and urban waste and from crops grown on lands not suitable for food we won’t damage our food supplies.

        Switchgrass, for example, grows nicely on crummy land which is unsuitable for food crops. Some oil seed crops can be grown between wheat crops when the fields would otherwise sit idle. In both cases the biofuel crops improve the soil, either by fixing nutrients and/or reducing erosion

        • SJ

          True, switchgrass is a good example, it’s a pity much green investment is still focussing on woods, palm oil, sunflower oil and sugar plants. Repercussions are largely not considered. Investment into research is so important.

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