Chinese Tesla Demand Could Push Tesla [TSLA] Past Its 500,000 Delivery Target

Tesla has a goal to reach a total of 500,000 deliveries by the end of this year — in a couple of weeks. Wedbush’s Dan Ives points out that vehicle demand from China could help Tesla exceed that goal.

In his note to clients on Sunday, he noted that he believes Tesla [TSLA] stock will surge 56% from its current levels to $1,000 per share in his bull case scenario.

“We believe the company is tracking to another strong month of December in China which could be the tipping point to get Musk & Co. to hit/exceed its 500k annual delivery target, an achievement not even on the map for the Street going back to the late spring/summer timeframe.”

Ives also added:

“The China growth story is worth at least $100 per share in a bull case to Tesla, as this EV penetration is set to ramp significantly over the next 12 to 18 months, along with major battery innovations coming out of Giga 3 and elsewhere throughout the China EV supply chain.”

If you remember Tesla’s 2020 annual shareholder meeting earlier this fall, Elon Musk pointed out that Giga Shanghai could eventually produce one million vehicles annually.

The Difference One Year Makes

Over a year ago — actually, just under 14 months ago, we looked at Tesla Giga Shanghai and marveled at how it was built in 10 months and was well ahead of schedule. I remember vividly the FUD surrounding this gigafactory. Some said it would never be operational, claiming that it was just a field of mud and would never be more. Some doubted every aspect of its progress. But, today, no one is doubting the fact that not only does Tesla’s second gigafactory exist in Shanghai, but it is a powerhouse — as I predicted that it would be.

In that article, I said that I believed that Chinese sales of Model 3s made in China would be a game changer as Tesla moves into the next decade — and this is especially true given the challenges 2020 has thrown at the entire world. No one was expecting a global pandemic (except perhaps Bill Gates), and when it came, few were expecting Tesla, out of all of the automakers, to emerge victorious while many industries — even the airline industry — took major hits. (Though, technically, we published a 7-part series on why Tesla would benefit from the crisis. If you appreciated and benefited from that, you’re welcome.)

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A Bright & Clear Future

Winter Solstice 2020 will be quite interesting, and I’m not speaking about the religious or spiritual aspects of it. This is the day that Tesla will officially be added to the S&P 500, marking a coming of age for the company — an age of success and hope for a cleaner future. Having Tesla — a multi-industry cleantech company with its prime focus on fully electric vehicles, solar power, and batteries — shows that the world is demanding that we stop depending on fossil fuels. It’s a powerful statement declaring that clean energy is in high demand.

I believe Tesla will reach and surpass its target of 500,000 deliveries. Furthermore, and either way, within the next couple of years, Giga Berlin and Giga Texas will be coming online. Soon, 500,000 will be a drop in the bucket compared to its million-plus EVs made annually.

And with millions of EVs on the roads of the world, this decreases the demand for gas and diesel vehicles tremendously. It should be an exciting and uplifting decade purely looking at the cleantech growth ahead.

Related: Tesla Autopilot Innovation Comes From Team Of ~300 Jedi Engineers — Interview With Elon Musk