Which Automaker Is Going To Surge Most From US EV Tax Credit Rush?

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There’s one day left to get an electric vehicle in the US and get a big tax credit for buying it! I was writing the other day about my surprise that Tesla isn’t sold out yet. After writing that, I started wondering, “Which automaker is going to see the biggest surge in sales thanks to the EV tax credit phasing out?#8221; Who is going to capitalize the most on buyers rushing to buy an EV in the third quarter?

Before speculating a bit on this, let’s look at what’s on the market. Here are the models on the market and their starting prices:

Now, remember that, as the IRS states, “the vehicle’s manufacturer suggested retail price (MSRP) can’t exceed:

• $80,000 for vans, sport utility vehicles and pickup trucks
• $55,000 for other vehicles”

That excludes many of the models above, but there are also many models that do qualify, including from Acura, Audi, BMW, Cadillac, Chevrolet, Ford, Hyundai, Jaguar, Jeep, Kia, Lexus, Mercedes, Nissan, Subaru, Tesla, Toyota, Vinfast, Volvo, and Volkswagen. Which of these brands do you think is most likely to benefit from a surge in buyers coming in and buying their EVs in the 3rd quarter? For some background, here were 2nd quarter sales by model:

If we consider those sales a baseline, which models are going to surprise when Q3 sales numbers come out? Or, for that matter, which models will disappoint?

Of course, a critical component here is how many vehicles the automaker was able and willing to produce for 3rd quarter sales.

Naturally, since Tesla has much more production capacity than it’s been using in recent quarters, I have to assume Tesla is going to have a much bigger quarter — even despite the automaker still having inventory available around the US. I have some faith that Chevrolet and Ford have the capacity to do a decent production and sales push, and perhaps Nissan as well. I’m less confident about other mass-market brands.

As we’ve seen when looking at the share of vehicle sales that are electric from each brand, luxury makes have topped the charts (Cadillac, Mercedes, Audi, BMW, Porsche, etc.). However, many of these models don’t qualify for the tax credit. Though, several of the smaller SUVs and crossovers do, and luxury car buyers are more likely to be looking for tax credits to reduce their taxes, so perhaps the SUV models below $80,000 from these brands will be the big winners. We’ll see. The numbers should start coming out within the next few days!