I’m Confused — Tesla Hasn’t Sold Out Of Cars Yet In USA?

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This is expected to be a giant quarter for electric vehicle sales in the USA. After September 30, the $7,500 tax credit for new EVs and the $4,000 tax credit for used EVs are going to be eliminated. As a result, everyone has been expecting that people would rush to buy EVs this month if they’ve been planning to get one soon-ish.

Naturally, with Tesla accounting for nearly half of US EV sales and often being the face of EVs in the country, one would expect the electric automaker would see an enormous surge in orders and would be sold out by now. I assumed it would be a blockbuster record quarter for Tesla (which it may still be) and the company would have sold out of vehicles for this quarter a week ago.

In the past couple of days, I started seeing ads for Tesla vehicles on YouTube, something I don’t recall ever seeing before. I’ve seen Tesla Energy ads many times, but I don’t recall seeing ads for Tesla’s cars, especially a bunch of them. At first, I was thinking, “Whoa, Tesla needs to go on an advertising blitz to sell cars even in this quarter!”

However, I then remembered that the government modified the phaseout slightly to allow cars that had received down payments from the buyers, with a contract in place, to be eligible for the tax credit — rather than having to take delivery by September 30. As the IRS writes, “The vehicle must be placed in service for you to claim the credit. If a vehicle is placed in service after Sept. 30, 2025, you must have acquired the vehicle on or before Sept. 30, 2025, to be eligible for the credit. You can demonstrate acquisition by entering into a binding written contract and making a payment on the vehicle on or before Sept. 30, 2025. A vehicle is placed in service when you take possession of the vehicle.” So, really, up until September 30, it makes sense for automakers and auto dealers to push people into EV purchases.

But then I was curious and I thought of something else. Why not check on Tesla inventory and see if any cars are left? As it turns out, there are dozens of Tesla Model 3s in inventory in my region, with reduced prices even! Checking a few other zip codes, I’m also finding inventory cars available in those regions, including dozens of Model Ys in some regions.

I don’t know what the total number is, of course. And word is that Tesla has changed its system to conceal some inventory in the past year or two. Overall, it doesn’t seem like there’s a ton of inventory at delivery centers and stores, but there clearly is quite a bit of it. With just four days left in the month, one would think inventory would be wiped out by the rush to buy cars before the tax credit is gone. Apparently not.

I still expect Tesla to have a top selling quarter — maybe a record quarter in the US — and it seems even the 4th quarter could get a boost thanks to the phaseout change noted above. At the moment, though, if you go the custom order route via Tesla.com, you can still get a Model Y in October. It’s not like there’s a backlog to 2026 or anything, or even to November! Overall, I don’t think that’s a very good sign for the company. But who knows — things can change fast in the auto world, and there are various ways Tesla could stimulate more demand. At the scale it’s at, though, the company seems to be treading water in the past year or two and struggling to not see its sales drop too much year over year.

Anything I’m missing here? Any other thoughts?