What Do Robotics Experts Think Of Tesla’s Optimus Robot?
I’m not a robotics expert, so I’ve been particularly keen to hear what robotics experts think of Tesla’s Optimus presentation the other day. The core arguments from Elon Musk and many Tesla fans regarding why Optimus is such a big deal are: Tesla will find a way to mass produce it at relatively low cost, Tesla is adding a brain to the robot, and it needs to be in the form of a human so that it can perform tasks designed to be done by humans. I don’t see any strong arguments against those things, but I know they are broad-brushed claims and quite vague. What about the details that I can’t see, that a common Tesla fan can’t see, and that perhaps even an engineer working on Optimus can’t see?
Let’s start with Dennis Hong. Dennis is a professor of mechanical & aerospace engineering at UCLA. He’s Director of RoMeLa: Robotics & Mechanisms Laboratory. With this title and being an independent expert in the separate world of academia, I was particularly interested to see his opinion. He was clearly excited as AI Day 2 arrived, but not in a sycophantic way. Luckily, he put his thoughts in a good little 13-post Twitter thread.
First of all, Dennis demonstrates his wisdom by acknowledging upfront what the event was about. It wasn’t about pumping up the stock (Tesla’s stock price typically drops after events like this), but rather about Tesla’s #1 challenge: attracting the best engineers in the world. Tesla does particularly well in this regard, often #1 or #2 on lists of top places engineers want to work, but that doesn’t mean attracting the best talent isn’t Tesla’s top challenge. From various public statements Elon Musk has made as well as private DMs to me, a couple of years ago, I came to the conclusion that this is challenge #1 for Tesla. Dennis states, “The energy and excitement at AI Day2 was amazing. ‘AI day’ is actually a recruitment event, and in that sense I believe the event was a big success. It was also incredible to see all the new technologies Tesla has been working on including the Optimus humanoid robot prototype.” If Dennis thinks Tesla succeeded in its top aim for AI Day 2, I think that’s worth taking note of — maybe more than anything else in his thread.
Dennis also quickly addresses two of the top criticisms he had seen of the event. “I am aware of critics who say that the prototype had nothing new that they haven’t seen elsewhere, and that there are other more impressive humanoids. There are also people who have doubts on the aggressive timeline Elon had proposed, and I do not necessarily disagree with them.” I think those are the two biggest critiques I’ve seen. But I think they are the two biggest because they stuck, because they both have a bit of truth to them. It seems that’s Dennis Hong’s point here.
“That being said, I am a true believer of the future with humanoid robots and their eventual applications, that they will be used in our everyday lives ‘one day’ and make our lives better. And for that to happen, we need to start somewhere and project Optimus is just that.” That seems like a ringing endorsement. While he may not be onboard the train of Tesla fans who think Tesla robots are going to change the world by 2030, he does seem to think that the corporate foundation and atmosphere for developing robots at Tesla is the right one.
One of the lines that caught me the most in the whole presentation was from a Tesla engineer who said they had been working on the project for just ~8 months. That was shorter than I assumed, but I guess it took some time to bring the team together and set the stage for the project before jumping in. I don’t know what should be expected of a robotics team in 8 months, but Dennis seemed to be pleased with the progress. “What was most impressive to me was what the Optimus team was able to accomplish in such a short period of time. If you are in this field, you would agree, too. The prototype they have created will serve as an excellent beginning platform for them to learn from and to build upon.” Another top thing that caught my attention in the presentation was that Tesla plans to now start using Optimus in Tesla factories in order to continue its development. I think that’s a huge deal since it quickly gets the robot into testing and development in exactly the kind of setting it should be able to perform well in as an end product. Its progress will be built around a practical application where it will presumably become commercially viable. The fact that Tesla is jumping to that stage right after getting the robot to walk demonstrates how rapidly Elon Musk aims to get to commercial viability, and echoes how he has approached long-term goals at Tesla and SpaceX. Get the product out, get it to work, and improve it as quickly as possible based on real-world use.
But … Dennis Hong now expresses a disagreement in approach, particularly around mass production of Optimus. “However, one thing that I disagree with is their decision to mass produce the model shown at the event. I’m sure there are many good reasons behind it that I am not aware of, but I do not believe that is the one that can be used in a real world setting in any meaningful capacity.
“Though it may be used in a structured environment in a limited way (very simple tasks in a very carefully controlled factory maybe?) this particular model still lacks some of the fundamental technology for locomotion & manipulation needed for use in a general situation.”
In other words, this robot is not designed for widespread general AI tasks, and Tesla is jumping in too fast with this design.
Nonetheless, Professor Hong then puts a positive spin on it again. “Building a robot to be used in the real world is much more difficult than most may think. I do not believe we will have humanoid butler robots that can do our grocery shopping anytime soon. But starting with something much simpler, I am cautiously optimistic.
“I would say this is their good first step towards something big – if Tesla truly commits to put their resources, time & efforts into it long term. They have great engineers, & with the newly recruited talents, I am even more excited to see what they‘ll be able to accomplish next. […]
“There are a number of new companies popping up with the goal of building humanoids for real life use. Many of them are lead [sic] by people with incredible talents & expertise whom I have the highest respect for. Tesla will have some steep competition which I see only as a good thing.”
It appears that Professor Hong may well see himself in a competitor role with Tesla, but also that he believes any competition will bring out the best in the development process and that he’d be happier if Tesla achieved great success with its project sooner than later. “We will start to see a number of new humanoids from various groups (including ours) in the next decade or so, and I find this incredibly exciting. Though we have different approaches, priorities and scale, we welcome the friendly competition and potential future collaboration.”