Good News for Toyota

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The Toyota BZ4X is starting to appear in the top 20 charts in reports from Scandanavia. Recent posts on cleantechnica.com reveal that the Toyota EV is at number 20 in Sweden (130 units) and number 5 in Norway (402 units). Good news for Toyota. Every night on the tele, we see ads for the fully electric Lexus. I am a firm believer that we need every carmaker to go electric in order for the EV transition to move as quickly as possible. I would like to see Toyota succeed in making the transition.

Meanwhile, in the Land Down Under, Toyota is yet to launch a battery electric vehicle but is still making promises — selling cars on the “never never.” It makes me wonder if they might create their own Osbourne effect. The BZ4 was promised to be in the hands of Australians by the end of last year, then it was by the end of this year, and now we are being told to expect the car in February 2024. I’m looking forward to seeing and driving it. Will people buy it? Probably, but interactions at EV car expos have taught me that some are taking the long view. “I’ll wait to buy a Toyota EV when the solid-state battery comes out,” one attendee told me. This might not be good news for Toyota.

Toyota Australia sales and marketing boss Sean Hanley told the Australian media that Toyota expects to deliver thousands of EVs in Australia in 2024. The sad news for Toyota is that both Tesla and BYD are already doing that on a monthly basis.

Then there are the ute buyers. If loyal Toyota buyers believe the announcements that in X years Toyota will have a “load carrying, trailer towing, remote area, off road Hi Lux 4×4 with zero tailpipe emissions” — probably powered by hydrogen, because batteries “just can’t handle the load” — might they just delay their purchases and wait for this miracle of engineering?

Perhaps the future ute could be powered by Toyota’s solid-state battery — also announced vaguely with a long timeline. Even with this breakthrough technology, Toyota is still only planning to produce 3 million EVs by 2030. Tesla and BYD together are almost at that level now — and at this rate, they will be producing 20 million a year by 2030. How much market share can Toyota retain?

Toyota unveiled a HiLux electric ute concept in Melbourne, Australia, last month. This “HiLux Revo BEV concept” will have a short range that “will not suit the needs of all buyers.”

“What I can’t tell you is when, or even if, this car will make it to Australia as a production model,” Toyota Australia’s Sean Hanley told the Australian media. This seems to be standard: promise an EV, but with an indefinite timeline — the “never, never.”

“Given the enormous challenges we face in electrifying commercial vehicles, it seems to make sense we’d start with an electric ute for the on-road market. In fact, I can imagine a day, perhaps a few years from now, when such a vehicle could help transform the e-mobility landscape in many countries,” Mr Hanley said.

“But imagine the size, weight and charging time of the battery pack that you’d need to do all that and achieve 800 kilometres of [driving] range. Rest assured; Toyota is working on it.”

But Australians aren’t resting assured, and neither should Toyota Australia. The fully electric LDV eT60 is already available, and next year, BYD plans to launch its own plug-in hybrid electric ute. I recently received an email asking me to place an expression of interest on the “soon to arrive Ford F-150 Lightning.” The competition is lining up for Australia’s extensive and lucrative ute market. Perhaps ACEV will also be able to join the market with its “yewt.” A whole industry with many players has sprung up converting the HiLux to electric for the mining industry. The demand is there, yet Toyota waits, obfuscates, and makes what appear to be empty promises.

In the meantime, Australia’s top selling vehicle for the past 7 years looks like its getting a hybrid sibling. In Melbourne, early versions of a HiLux ute and Land Cruiser Prado with 48-volt technology that uses a battery and small generator to reduce fuel consumption were also unveiled. Though, it is expected that the ute’s use and shape will not allow the consumers the fuel savings they achieve on Toyota’s economical hybrid sedans.

The reaction of the Australian EV buying public was predictable. Reactions have largely been cynical. This announcement has come after the Australian federal government received overwhelming support for a fuel efficiency standard — despite automakers frantic lobbying against it. Not good news for Toyota.

When not cynical, reactions have been fully sarcastic — “have they never heard of Rivian?”

Some think that the “Hi Lux Revo BEV concept” could be “cheap and nasty conversion,” not worthy of the quality of engineering that we come to expect from Toyota, but rather a retrofit that exposes Toyota’s lack of understanding and commitment to BEVs. It might be used as a bait and switch by salespeople — much like the Mazda MX30.

“Here is an electric ute,” the salesman might say. “Let me point out its high cost and limitations. However, if sir and madam were to try the hybrid version, they would find their every need met and expectations exceeded by Toyota’s superior, world leading hybrid technology.”

“Perhaps we should wait for the solid-state battery powered one, dear, or perhaps the hydrogen powered ute of the future,” the customer demurs. But it is likely that the salesman will succeed in selling the hybrid and be able to report back to head office that Australians really aren’t interested in electric utes. Nor will they wait 10 years for the “planned and imminent” BEVs from Toyota. Is it marketing genius or is Toyota painting itself into a corner by talking about distant future technology and denying what is happening to the vehicle market around it?

Is Toyota creating its own Osbourne effect — promising a superior product and losing sales as people wait? Will the lineup be: Osbourne computers, Blockbuster Video, Kodak Film, Nokia phones, Toyota cars? If buyers are keen to go electric, will they go elsewhere, and if they do, can Toyota get them back?