Electric Bicycle Sales to Hit 47 Million per Year by 2018, Report Finds
The findings, from a recent Pike Research report, indicate that “the worldwide market for e-bicycles will increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.5% between 2012 and 2018” and the “e-bicycle market is anticipated to generate $6.9 billion in worldwide revenue in 2012, growing to $11.9 billion in 2018.”
China is where most of the growth is projected to occur, due to its rapid urbanization, demand for low-cost transportation, and a historical affinity to bikes, I presume. The Chinese are expected to be buying 42 million of the projected 47 million or so e-bicycles that that will be sold in 2018, 89% of the total world market.
Of course, the report is based on assumptions, and sales under a more optimistic scenario are even higher. Under the most aggressive forecast, sales will reach 51 million bicycles and $13.2 billion in annual revenue by 2018.
While China is going to continue to lead growth in the sector, the North American e-bicycle market is also expected to grow.
“E-bicycle manufacturers and importers in North America and Latin America continue to struggle with a weak distribution network and modest demand,” says senior analyst Dave Hurst. “As a result, the e-bicycle market is experiencing an accelerated rate of acquisitions and business failures. Nevertheless, sales are expected to grow rapidly, with a CAGR of nearly 22% in North America from 2012 to 2018.”
Want more details on these e-bicycles and the e-bicycle market? Here’s more from Pike Research:
The vast majority of the e-bicycles sold in China, the world’s largest market, utilize sealed lead acid (SLA) batteries. While this has resulted in extremely low-cost e-bicycles in China, it has also led to a number of challenges including e-bicycle traffic congestion, lead contamination, and manufacturers effectively ignoring laws relating to e-bicycles speed and weight limits. Pike Research anticipates that the global penetration of lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries will grow from 6% in 2012 to 12% in 2018. Cost pressures from Asia Pacific will keep manufacturers interested in SLA batteries through this decade, but once manufacturing efficiencies have driven down the costs of Li-ion, we will start to see the decline of SLA as the battery of choice in e-bicycles.
Pike Research’s report, “Electric Bicycles”, provides a comprehensive analysis of the worldwide e-bicycle and e-bicycle battery industry including an examination of market forces, technology issues, government policy influences, the competitive landscape, and key drivers of growth. The study includes global forecasts for e-bicycle units and e-bicycle batteries through 2017, segmented by world region and key countries.
Source: Pike Research
Image courtesy Kalkhoff
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