Europe To Install 140 Gigawatts Of New Wind Power Capacity In Next 10 Years, According To MAKE

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Despite unprecedented policy uncertainty across the region, Europe is expected to install more than 140 GW of wind capacity over the next ten years, according to new analysis from MAKE Consulting.

A new report from MAKE Consulting, Europe Power Outlook 2016, analyzed the wind power markets across Europe, and identified the key drivers and barriers for new wind power growth. The key findings from the report show that 140 GW of new wind capacity is expected to be commissioned over the next 10 years, with 60% of those installations taking place in Northern Europe.

However, the report also highlighted the unprecedented policy uncertainty which is currently gripping key European countries. The report explains that “persisting low power prices in Northern Europe and EU state aid regulations are prompting governments to reconsider [Feed-in Tariffs] and to design support mechanisms more sensitive to power price fluctuations in order to avert an escalation in public expenditures.” According to MAKE Consulting, these policy revisions have resulted in “unprecedented policy uncertainty” for developers and investors, which in turn has resulted in a rush to the market in countries where FiTs are expiring, and in the UK, where the early phase out of the country’s Renewables Obligations scheme left 5 grace periods with a significant pipeline of projects to be completed before the end of this decade.

Further, the report analyzes the repercussions of lower power prices. Specifically, low power prices, according to MAKE, have deterred several developers from commissioning new assets, driven commissioning of few large wind farms, caused a low level of remuneration in Denmark, and lowered funds available for new wind plants in Austria.

Though the 2020 renewable energy targets for countries across Europe, and the larger target for Member States of the European Union, have driven a lot of the wind energy growth across Europe over the past few years, and will likely continue to do so to some degree, it will be mitigated somewhat by the shifting policy and regulatory atmosphere.

Nevertheless, despite an uncertain future, MAKE Consulting still expects the European wind energy market to install 140 GW of new wind energy capacity by 2025, following on from the 14.4 GW of new capacity Europe installed during 2015. In fact, in 2015, Germany, Poland, Turkey, Finland, and the Netherlands all set new installation records. Further, 2016 is expected to see Europe install 14.2 GW.

Over the next decade, Germany will continue its European dominance, installing another 36 GW of new wind capacity, followed by the UK with 15.7 GW and Turkey with 13.5 GW.

Regionally, Northern Europe will account for 60% of new wind capacity between 2016 and 2025, followed by Southern Europe which will install 28%. Eastern Europe will account for the remaining 12%.