The following is a wonderful article by Charles Morris that communicates several important points superbly. It presents a bit of a different take on lithium than we’ve typically been presenting, while still referencing a comment from a battery exec that emphasizing a key point we’ve been communicating for years. That … [continued]
BNEF’s latest EV Outlook released this month is poorly conceived and contains at least one significant error. Let’s help them out.
BloombergNEF’s Colin McKerracher took to the stage at the BNEF Summit in San Francisco last week where he made a case for electric vehicles reaching the “end of the beginning.” The case for electric vehicles moving into the mainstream or out of the early adopter stage of growth has been fueled by the increase in energy density in lithium-ion batteries and the corresponding drop in cost that comes along with it.
Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) has released the results of its 2019 Battery Price Survey, finding that industry-weighted average battery pack prices have already fallen to $156 per kWh. This is over 13% lower than the 2018 average ($180/kWh, when adjusted for inflation), and BNEF foresees cost reductions continuing, with $100/kWh potentially being reached by 2023. Let’s dive in.
BNEF says 4 million EVs have now been sold worldwide and the pace of sales is increasing. It expects the 5 million EV level to occur in just the next 6 months.
A new Bloomberg New Energy Finance report focused on electric buses (e-buses) forecasts a surge in electric bus sales to 84% of global new bus sales by 2030. The report forecasts that electric cars will follow, but at a slower pace, reaching 28% of new car sales in 2030.
If you ask people today if cleantech is exciting, they will most likely not care or, if part of our cleantech bubble community, they will say “yes” and start shouting out “Musk, Tesla, SpaceX, Mars, Musk, Tesla … (yeah, I know SpaceX is for space travel not cleantech, but you know, Elon, Tesla, Musk, SpaceX…). The trouble is, Elon Musk has no rivals. I mean, business-wise, there is a long list of competitors, but in terms of popularity, he seems somehow unchallenged. Rivalries have always inspired rivals themselves, but also the watchers, the ones who supported one or the other, and I am talking about it in the positive sense of urging people to do more, do better, or just do.
I’ll be in Amsterdam again next week for the rEVolution conference. We had a fun CleanTechnica meetup last year on the night before the conference (which is actually how we ended up with Maarten as a superb CleanTechnica contributor). This year, the plan is to have a CleanTechnica meetup on March 13 again.
As you may have noticed, one of my favorite events of 2017 was the first annual rEVolution conference from EVBox. That’s where it was announced that Engie was acquiring EVBox, and there were also presentations from a host of electric vehicle leaders (including — shocker — yours truly).
Bad news may be on the horizon for Big Oil as electric cars gained traction this past week. Bloomberg reports that “France plans to end the sale of gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles by 2040” and “Volvo Car Group became the first major manufacturer to say it will start phasing out vehicles powered solely by fossil fuels.” Who’s poised to fill this gas-mobile void? “More than a dozen automakers are jostling to lead the U.S. electric-car race, but Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) sees a clear winner separating from the pack: Tesla Inc.”
