Escalation is the word that describes best what happened in recent weeks within Volkswagen, and it’s an escalation that is not helpful for CEO Herbert Diess, the Volkswagen Group, our society, Germany, or the environment.
I write this article full of anger as a German about the German auto industry. The Octopus is one of the most fascinating and intelligent animals in our seas. Scientists predict that if they didn’t die that early after the new generation is born, because of their ability to learn, they would be “the humans of the sea,” dominating all other sea animals large and small, just like humans do on soil.
First, it was some kind of flu in China.
Then, the coronavirus quickly spread across the world, being recognized as a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) on March 11, 2020.
In country after country, lockdown measures started to get enforced, with travel restrictions, school closures, and more measures put into place.
A couple of weeks ago, I published a report showing US new auto sales were down 496,600 in the first quarter of 2020 (compared to the first quarter of 2019). That seemed like a stunning, jaw-dropping drop in auto sales. Looking at the global auto sales story, though, the 496,000 drop looks like peanuts. In the same period, new auto sales were down by more than 6 million units globally.
In somewhat of a surprise, for the first time ever, the Tesla Model 3 was the top selling vehicle in California last quarter.
We recently reported on the Tesla Model 3 being the 3rd best selling vehicle in California in 2019 as well as the Tesla Model X ranking either #1 or #4 in its class, depending on which class you put it in. Some other electric cars did quite well in California as well, though. The Chevy Bolt was the 2nd best selling subcompact car in California and the BMW i3 was the 3rd best selling “entry luxury car” there.
In the comments of my article about the Tesla Model 3 accounting for 67% of US electric vehicle sales in the second quarter, someone asked about the electric vehicle share of the overall market. I didn’t find second quarter (Q2) sales data anywhere, but I did quickly identify sales data for the first half of the year.
A perfect storm is brewing above the automotive industry. Three hardly grasped phenomena are working together. Just like a real storm, when the conditions align in the best/worst way, we get a devastating superstorm. These phenomena (or events) are the Osborne effect of delayed demand, the technology (cost) curve of battery prices and other technology, and the S-curve that describes market acceptance of new technologies.
