2017: Technology — 1, Civilization — 0
Technology is wonderful, but it must not blind us to our ultimate purpose, which is building a just and sustainable world.
Technology is wonderful, but it must not blind us to our ultimate purpose, which is building a just and sustainable world.
Everyone knows that electric vehicles (EVs) are going to replace internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) in the long run. Many of us are excited about this key transition away from fossil fuels and hope that it comes sooner rather than later, yet are not sure exactly when the big breakthroughs in market share are going to happen. It is often stated that at battery prices of $100/kWh, EVs will successfully compete with ICEVs, but mainstream predictions about how and when this happens vary widely. In this in-depth article, we are going to look in more detail at the figures relevant to different vehicle segments, estimate the most probable timeline for feature and price parity in these segments, and offer a counterpoint to the more conservative timelines that we see from both incumbents (OPEC) and progressives (BNEF) alike. We know the EV disruption is real, since it is already well underway in the premium sedan segment.
What will Tesla revenue be in 5 years, in 2022? I don’t think anyone has the magic answer, and opinions vary drastically, but here are the results of my fun exercise in Tesla Model 3, Model Y, Model S, Model X, Semi, Roadster 2, Pickup, Energy, and Network revenue, gross margins, and gross profit in 2022. Have fun exploring the possibilities along with me.
The rise and rise of the Chinese plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market is unstoppable, with yet another record performance in November — 84,000 new passenger PEVs registered last month. That’s almost double last year’s total for November. That 84,000 also put the year to date (YTD) count over 490,000, up 60% year over year (YoY).
A lot has changed since I first compiled a list of the 11 electric cars with the most range. Most of those cars no longer make the list. Furthermore, there are a handful of affordable electric cars that have jumped into the high-range bracket. Have a look below (and compare to that 2015 list) for more details.
There are some significant differences with regard to the plug-in electric vehicles that sell the best in Europe and those that sell the best in the USA. While differences with regard to range needs and costs are part of the drivers for these differences (note that the average European drives approximately half as much as the average American over the course of a year), they are by no means the only ones. Questions of national bias, government incentives, and public image all come into play as well, amongst others.
Those sounds you heard a few days ago were a collective sigh of relief from many automakers and electric vehicle advocates when the US Congress passed new tax legislation that also kept the federal electric vehicle tax credit intact — a tax credit of up to $7,500 for any US taxpayers who buy a new electric vehicle*.
In day’s world, one man’s experience is now another’s, and another’s. Here’s another glance into the EV that is a sign of the times. Remember those long lines to reserve a Model 3? Those weren’t employees in line — they got to reserve earlier in quiet. Those would become the first Model 3 owners who weren’t Tesla/SpaceX employees, huge investors, or close company friends. Now, those customers are starting to reserve their Tesla Model 3 orders.
Here it is — the Model 3.
I had fun last week playing with some numbers in the article “Tesla Semi Price × Orders = $47 Million to $55 Million in Tesla Revenue (with Assumptions).” Since then, the orders have jumped considerably, bringing expected revenue just on known orders (410) up to $82 million based on an average price of $200,000.
However, as should be obvious, the number of pre-orders is far less than Tesla will end up getting annually once mass production of its 100% electric Semi begins.
In part 1 of this Chanje electric van review, we looked at the Chanje electric van’s background and some of its features. In this second part, we take a look at what Chanje brings to the table for fleet owners if they turn from simple vehicles operators to energy management and vehicle coordination. Chanje is a game changer, and this time, pun intended.