Let’s look at electric vehicle registrations by OEM — for now, full electrics (BEVs) plus plugin hybrids (PHEVs). At the end of Q2, BYD was leading with 15.4% share, but now it is up 1.9 percentage points, to 17.3%, increasing its advantage over Tesla to 4% market share. Comparing with the month of August, BYD increased its share from 16.9% to its current 17.3%.
Tesla remained in second with 13.3% share, down from 13.6% in Q2, but up from 12.4% compared to August thanks to the September end-of-quarter peak.
There was a position change in the last place on the podium, with a slowing SAIC (7.6%, down from 8.6% in Q2) being surpassed by Volkswagen Group (8%, same as Q2). Still, comparing with August, both lost 0.3% of market share in September.
In the 5th position, Geely–Volvo consolidated its position, increasing 0.1% share compared to Q2, to 5.7%. At the same time, it saw its most direct competitors, #6 Hyundai–Kia (5.0%, down from 5.4% in Q2) and #7 Stellantis (4.8%, down from 5.5% in Q2) lose share.
Comparing the top 5 of Q3 2022 with what was happening a year ago, there are significant differences:
- The biggest difference is obviously BYD, which jumped from #4 to the leadership position, winning 9% share on the way.
- Tesla lost 2% share compared to the same period last year, being kicked out of the leadership spot by BYD.
- It wasn’t only Tesla losing share, as #3 Volkswagen Group lost 4% share and #4 SAIC lost 3% share in the last 12 months. Added to Tesla’s losses, that gives some strength to my theory that EVs, unlike what many think, will not mean a higher concentration of share among fewer OEMs, but precisely the opposite. With EVs being easier to make than ICE vehicle models, expect EV makes to multiply — and many of them coming from unexpected places (case in point: Vietnam’s Vinfast). That will mean that the leading EV makers will have less market share in a mature EV market than what the major automotive groups have had in the ICE era.
- A year ago, Stellantis was in the top 5. It is still close, in 7th, but one can’t really see how it can get close to #5 Geely–Volvo. Although, the same cannot be said about Hyundai-Kia….
Limiting OEM registrations to just BEVs, at the end of Q2, Tesla was leading with 19% share, with an advantage of more than 10 percentage points over runner-up SAIC. Tesla remains the leader, losing just 0.5% share, to 18.5% share. BYD kept its spot in second place, with 11.9% share, up from 11% in Q2. That means BYD gained 1.4% share on Tesla (19% vs 11% in Q2 against the current 18.5% vs 11.9%). If this trend continues into Q4, expect the OEMs to end the year with 18% (Tesla) and 12.8% (BYD).
SAIC remained in 3rd, but has lost share (9.8% now, down from 10.8% at the end of June), but it still has 4th placed Volkswagen Group at safe distance (7.4%, up from 7.3% in Q2).
Hyundai–Kia (5%, down from 5.6% in June) remained in 5th, but it has #6 Geely–Volvo looking to steal the #5 spot from the Korean group by the end of this year (Geely’s now at 4.8%, up from 4.3% in Q2).
As of right now, there are just 13,000 units separating #5 Hyundai–Kia from #6 Geely–Volvo, and the latter has established a quarterly average of 35,000 units/month in the third quarter of the 2022, against 27,000 for the Korean OEM. Hyundai–Kia’s 5th position should be in critical danger by November based on these trends, meaning that those Hyundai Ioniq 5 & 6, Kia EV6, and Kia Niro EV deliveries will need to be in full swing if the Korean OEM wants to keep the 5th spot through year end.
Comparing the current ranking with what happened a year ago, leader Tesla lost 3.5% share, Volkswagen Group lost 2.6%, SAIC lost 4% share, all while Hyundai–Kia kept the same share it had a year ago.
So … who profited from all these losses? Yep, once again, BYD. The Shenzhen automaker jumped from 4th a year ago, with 6% share, to the current runner-up spot, with 11.9% share. That’s a 5.9% market share gain! In just 12 months!
If the Chinese automaker’s sales & production continue to surge the way they have been this past year, expect BYD to be racing with Tesla for the BEV title by June 2023, or the end of next year at the latest!*
*All of this is assuming the geopolitics surrounding EVs (EV incentives, tariffs, etc.) remain the same in the next year and a half, something that we cannot assure. Not wanting to go into details, it is evident EVs are in the middle of a de-globalization process, as exemplified here, here and here. This is part of a wider de-coupling process between the economies of the USA and China. Speaking of these two, unlike other areas where an all-out Economic Cold War (ECW) between the two economic giants could do more damage to China’s economy, Tik Tok being just one example, an ECW event would hurt significantly more the US automotive companies than the Chinese ones, because while Chinese automakers are basically non-existent in the US (the exception being BYD in the Heavy Duty category, which only serves to confirm the rule: if an ECW would lead to China banning US carmakers from the country, this would mean that Tesla would lose its main factory in the world (52% of all Teslas delivered in 2022 were made in Shanghai). GM and Ford would also lose significant volume. From January through September, General Motors sold close to a million units in China (or over 20% of its global sales), while Ford sold some 200,000 units in the same period (or some 8% of its total sales). In short, while Ford wouldn’t suffer significantly from an ECW, General Motors and Tesla would suffer a major blow to their global operations, especially Tesla. That could see its production output reduced to half and its profit margin squeezed to less than half, as Giga Shanghai is the most profitable of its plants.
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