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Germany At 23.6% Plugin EV Share In June, Tesla Model 3 Bestselling EV

Germany, Europe’s largest auto market, saw plugin electric vehicles take 23.6% share in June 2021, up almost 3x from 8.6% share in June 2020. The bestselling EV in June was the Tesla Model 3, at over 4,400 units, though the diminutive Volkswagen e-Up! led H1 2021 as a whole. Overall auto volumes in June were some 15% down compared to June 2019.

 

June’s combined plugin result of 23.6% saw full battery electrics (BEVs) take 12.2%, ahead of plugin hybrids (PHEVs) for the first time this year, with the latter at 11.4%. This is a strong swing towards BEVs from recent weightings. The 2021 year-to-date cumulative plugin share now stands at 22.3%, up from 7.8% at this point in 2020.

Old-school (non-electric-assist) diesels fell below 20% share for the first time in decades, from 30.6% a year ago. By the end of 2021, we should see a monthly result where BEVs alone outperform diesels.

Combustion (petrol + diesel) powertrains combined were below 60% share for the first time in 2021, down significantly from over 82% in June 2020:

It’s almost inevitable now that the end of 2021 will see these old-school combustion powertrains fall below 50% of the market.

Most Popular BEVs

We don’t yet have detailed BEV model data from Germany’s KBA, but we do know that the Tesla brand sold 4,466 total units in June, all (or effectively all) of which must have been the Tesla Model 3. This almost certainly puts the Model 3 as the best selling BEV in June, since the only rival was the Volkswagen e-Up! which has been steady at around 2,500 monthly units this year.

However, the little VW e-Up! still holds on to the H1 2021 top spot, with at least a 1,000 unit margin over the Tesla in the cumulative tally. Before we get the KBA model data later this month (look out for Jose’s report), here’s a reminder of the previous state-of-play up until the end of May:

Note that both the Volkswagen ID.4 (around 1,400/month recently) and Skoda Enyaq (around 1,600/month recently) have been climbing, and if one were to combine these VW group MEB-platform SUV siblings, they look set to take the top spot for 2021 a whole. Their other MEB-SUV sibling, the Audi Q4 e-tron, is now starting to deliver in volume also, putting the triplet-tag-team even further ahead of any rival.

As we observed in the Norway market, Tesla will need to get the Model Y shipping to have a chance of competing in volume with the MEB platform in Germany, perhaps in 2022.

Image courtesy of Tesla.

Outlook

I wrote in last month’s report that May or June 2021 should be the last time in Germany that plugins see less than 25% market share, and I’m still confident that the next month (or three) will see 25% as the new baseline, certainly before the end of Q3. The next 3 months are the ones to watch; the rate of acceleration in Q3 usually dictates the overall trend for the year.

We are still potentially on track for December to record over 35% plugin share (it brought 26.6% last year) and possibly even skim past 40% share. What do you think? Please leave your thoughts in the comments.

 

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Max is an anthropologist, social theorist and international political economist, trying to ask questions and encourage critical thinking about social and environmental justice, sustainability and the human condition. He has lived and worked in Europe and Asia, and is currently based in Barcelona. Find Max's book on social theory, follow Max on twitter @Dr_Maximilian and at MaximilianHolland.com, or contact him via LinkedIn.

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