I noticed that in the past month “Troy Teslike,” an occasional writer on CleanTechnica and obsessive Tesla delivery tracker and forecaster, got word that Tesla Giga Shanghai had added a second shift for production of the Tesla Model Y.
He got an update a little more than two weeks later, near the end of March, that the second shift was only temporary and they were back down to a single shift on Tesla Giga Shanghai’s Model Y production line.
My hunch was that Tesla is slowly ramping up production of the Model Y and this was a case of two steps forward and then one step back. And that may well be the case.
As I noted last week, Troy Teslike is typically excellent at forecasting Tesla’s quarterly sales by the end of the quarter. However, his forecast for the 1st quarter of 2021 was way low. Forecasting is no easy task, especially when taking into account major markets around the globe, so I’ve got no animus for Troy and don’t expect him to be at 99.8%+ accuracy every quarter. Nonetheless, the core question is: where did Troy go wrong? As related side question is: how did Troy go wrong?
Something that crossed my mind was: perhaps there was a second shift working on production of the Model Y at Giga Shanghai for longer than Troy knew, or perhaps the second shift was resumed and Troy hadn’t gotten word of that.
Interestingly, in a sense, brought up the same matter. He seems to think that the most likely place where he underestimated deliveries was with regards to the Model Y made in China (MIC). This was Troy’s biggest miss to date, so he is surely trying to figure out what went wrong and will share some more details as he gets them.
Troy did also note that he underestimated European Tesla sales by perhaps 4,000–5,000, but that’s still not even a quarter of his overall miss, which was an estimate of 165,100 versus the actual quarterly delivery estimate from Tesla of 184,800.