Connect with us

Hi, what are you looking for?

CleanTechnica
Tesla Cybertruck reveal

Clean Transport

Tesla Cybertruck Reservations ≠ Purchases … But They Mean Something

I had this article in drafts before Frugal Moogal wrote a piece similarly trying to address “controversy” around the $100 refundable preorder cost for a Tesla Cybertruck and the news of 200,000 preorders. However, I have slightly different framing — despite seemingly agreeing on the same two core points — so I feel compelled to still put this piece out there.

Tesla Cybertruck reveal

Photo by Kyle Field | CleanTechnica

I had this article in drafts before Frugal Moogal wrote a piece similarly trying to address “controversy” around the $100 refundable preorder cost for a Tesla Cybertruck and the news of 200,000 preorders. However, I have slightly different framing — despite seemingly agreeing on the same two core points — so I feel compelled to still put this piece out there.

Most importantly, I think people on both sides are putting too much in their opinions of what the figures mean — or at least it reads like that. I don’t often end up the “moderate” who sticks to the middle of an issue, but I think that’s really the place to be on this one.

Take Preorder Numbers with a Grain of Salt

The first thing to emphasize is that the $100 preorders are definitely not reservations, orders, purchases, or even firm commitments that you want the Cybertruck. I’ve heard from someone who put down a reservation with only a “20% chance” of buying it, and someone else with only a “10% chance.” I’m sure there are many others who put down a reservation with an expectation that there’s less than a 50% chance they’ll get the truck. Why? Because:

  • it’s only $100
  • it’s refundable
  • it locks in the current Full Self Driving price.

On the other hand, I’ve seen repeatedly (so many times) that people are saying the Cybertruck is growing on them, and it has certainly grown on me for several reasons, mostly practical ones.

Nonetheless, I think the preorder numbers should be something that we all take a pure grain of salt. I don’t think there should really be any extrapolation here in terms of expected initial orders or annual sales.

… But They Mean Something!

Despite what I just wrote, preorders do mean something. At the very least, they mean that a ton of people are interested in the Cybertruck. You may not be committing anything with a refundable $100 deposit, but you’re showing some level of interest in the vehicle. I don’t presume there are many people who put down $100 despite having no interest in the vehicle or no possibility of getting it. Why would you do that?

And even considering low interest on average, 200,000 preorders show a lot of interest in this vehicle. That alone shuts down the common argument that no one wants this vehicle. That shuts down the argument that it’s “too hideous” or “too unusual.” It is appealing to hundreds of thousands of people.

In fact, it’s strikingly different visuals has probably kept people from preordering who may well get the vehicle. I haven’t preordered, but in the past couple of days I’ve thought about a couple of very serious reasons why I’m attracted to the vehicle. (No, it’s not because it’s such a manly man-vehicle … I think.)

As another anecdote, my much younger sister who lives in NYC, who doesn’t bring up Tesla much with me, asked me, “So what’s the word on this new truck? Should I get one?” I was quite surprised by that. She doesn’t even have a license! As a followup, she wrote, “I honestly like the aesthetic. It’s like a bat-SUV.” She fits quite squarely in the population Frugal Moogal described here, which may end up being the truck’s #1 demographic. I doubt many of those people put down a $100 preorder even though seem to love the truck. It’s not really how that culture rolls, from my experience.

Anyway, getting back on track, while I wouldn’t make any forecasts based on the preorder number, I do think it shows a strong level of public interest in the vehicle. Combine that with the chatter I’ve seen online about it, the fact that I think the insanely wild Cybertrukk needs some time to grow on people, and the passion with which I’ve seen people from all different groups (with different types of vehicles) expressing their love for the official vehicle of Mars, and I increasingly think this thing is going to be a real hit. But we’ll see. We have ~2 years for conjecture and speculation.

Read more Tesla Cybertruck stories.

By the way, if you’d like to buy a Tesla Model 3, Model S, or Model X and get some free Supercharging miles, feel free to use my special, magical, unicorn-blessed referral code: https://ts.la/zachary63404. You can also get a $100 discount on Tesla solar with that code.

 
 
Appreciate CleanTechnica’s originality? Consider becoming a CleanTechnica Member, Supporter, Technician, or Ambassador — or a patron on Patreon.
 
Have a tip for CleanTechnica, want to advertise, or want to suggest a guest for our CleanTech Talk podcast? Contact us here.

New Podcast: Cruise Talks Autonomous Driving Tech, Regulations, & Auto Design

New Podcast: Battery Mineral Mining Policies & Regional Trends

Written By

Zach is tryin' to help society help itself one word at a time. He spends most of his time here on CleanTechnica as its director, chief editor, and CEO. Zach is recognized globally as an electric vehicle, solar energy, and energy storage expert. He has presented about cleantech at conferences in India, the UAE, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, the USA, Canada, and Curaçao. Zach has long-term investments in Tesla [TSLA], NIO [NIO], Xpeng [XPEV], Ford [F], Amazon [AMZN], Piedmont Lithium [PLL], Lithium Americas [LAC], and Starbucks [SBUX]. But he does not offer (explicitly or implicitly) investment advice of any sort.

Comments

#1 most loved electric vehicle, solar energy, and battery news & analysis site in the world.

 

Support our work today!

Advertisement

Power CleanTechnica: $3/Month

Tesla News Solar News EV News Data Reports

Advertisement

EV Sales Charts, Graphs, & Stats

Advertisement

Our Electric Car Driver Report

30 Electric Car Benefits

Tesla Model 3 Video

Renewable Energy 101 In Depth

solar power facts

Tesla News

EV Reviews

Home Efficiency

You May Also Like

Batteries

Based on the analysis I did of ARK Invest’s Tesla bull and bear cases, here and here, I decided to create my own financial...

Autonomous Vehicles

This article is on some interesting things that Adam Jonas has said recently on Tesla and legacy auto. We have written a lot about...

Autonomous Vehicles

Yesterday, Elon Musk tweeted that Tesla’s Full Self Driving (FSD) Beta V9.0 would soon be live, and that this new update would switch to...

Cars

Wow, how things change. Ten months ago, I wrote an article after Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas declared to investors that he felt that GM’s...

Copyright © 2021 CleanTechnica. The content produced by this site is for entertainment purposes only. Opinions and comments published on this site may not be sanctioned by and do not necessarily represent the views of CleanTechnica, its owners, sponsors, affiliates, or subsidiaries.