Following the recent ruling by a court in Germany that cities there have the right to ban diesel cars as a means of improving air quality, the share of the country’s total auto market held by diesel cars has been falling sharply.
During March of 2017, the market share held by diesel cars apparently fell by around 25%, according to the KBA, following on market share losses of 19.5% in February and 17.6% in January. All of that being said, diesel car sales in Germany are still fairly high.
This drop in market share held by diesel cars has led to local manufacturers such as Volkswagen beginning to offer special incentives meant to sustain sales, such as the so-called “Germany Guarantee.”
Reuters provides a bit more information: “The KBA also said total registrations in Germany fell 3.4% to 347,433 passenger cars, because of two fewer selling days, though first-quarter registrations increased 4% to 878,611 vehicles, confirming what an auto industry source told Reuters. Sales in Spain were up 2.1% in March but fell 5.8% in Italy, with diesel registrations continuing their decline in both markets, according to analysts.”
Adding to the view provided by those figures, a senior partner and automotive specialist at EY, Peter Fuss, noted (as quoted by Reuters): “For the time being, new diesel sales will not recover. Rather, the downtrend looks set to continue in coming months.”
Fuss added that diesel car market share was likely to fall to around 25% over the coming months, down from the current ~31%.
While such a drop is likely to hit the pocketbooks of affected auto manufacturers pretty hard, a 25% market share is still pretty high. How much further will it fall than that?