Recent policy clarity in several key global wind power markets has impacted growth projections both positively and negatively, according to MAKE Consulting’s most recent analysis.
According to MAKE’s Q3/2016 Global Wind Power Market Outlook Update, there have been several regional adjustments made to future projections, however in the end, the negative and positive adjustments have balanced out over the 10-year outlook, with a net upgrade of less than 600 MW.
Firm order intake decreased 15% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2016, down to nearly 12 GW, thanks primarily to a pause in orders placed for projects in the US market, as developers no longer need to scurry to complete projects in order to qualify for the now-extended Production Tax Credit.
Specifically, MAKE has only upgraded the 2016 to 2018 global outlook by 1%, primarily due to a 23% upgrade in the outlook for India, and a 9% upgrade to the outlook in Germany.
However, there is a 2 GW downgrade from 2019 to 2025, attributed primarily to policy announcements made in the UK and Poland — though these changes have not had a significant impact on the global outlook, with MAKE maintaining its 10-year CAGR outlook.
The Outlook similarly saw a minimal change made to the outlook for the Americas from MAKE’s Q2 Outlook caused exclusively by dynamics made in Latin America — representing a downgrade of less than 1%. Interestingly, this is not really due to any failings in the region’s wind market, but rather the increasing dominance of solar in Latin America’s top markets — Brazil and Mexico.
However, in wind’s favor is the recent policy certainty that has been solidified in the United States’ state of Massachusetts for the future growth of offshore wind.
Unsurprisingly, given the recent spate of policy changes made in the United Kingdom, as well as in Poland, Europe saw numerous adjustments made in MAKE’s Q3 analysis. Increasing uncertainty in the UK caused due to the country’s recent decision to exit the European Union, and corresponding existing policy uncertainty over the country’s renewable energy sector as a whole, resulted in adjustments to the UK’s future. However, MAKE notes that corresponding upgrades in Northern Europe have offset the UK’s lackluster support of renewable energy.
Eastern Europe, however, suffered a 11% downgrade due to troubling policies in Poland’s PiS government.
There were other minor adjustments across the rest of the globe — downward adjustments in Middle East and Africa due to issues in Egypt and Saudi Arabia — and a lack of movement in MAKE’s expectations in China. Recent growth prospects in India resulted in a 6% upgrade, but this was offset by adjustments in the rest of the Asia Pacific excluding China region.
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