The Paris Agreement, which was agreed upon at COP21 in Paris in December, is set to boost wind turbine manufacturer sales, according to a new report from Moody’s.
According to a new report from Moody’s Investors Service, the Paris Agreement, which was agreed upon at the 21st session of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP21) and signed by at least 165 countries earlier this year, will give a tremendous boost to the sale of wind turbines in the coming years. Specifically, the commitments made in signing the Paris Agreement will lead to increases in investment, particularly in emerging markets, towards renewable energies such as wind and solar. Moody’s highlights several companies — Siemens Aktiengesellschaft, General Electric Company, Vestas, Gamesa, Goldwind, and Senvion TopCo GmbH — which are all expected to see sales increase as a direct result of the Paris Agreement over the next five to ten years.
“It is highly likely that new installations will remain flat on 2015’s record level, as the industry has matured and governments in many developed markets are reducing new installation targets to cut back subsidies and limit costs for end customers,” said Matthias Hellstern, a Moody’s Managing Director — Corporate Finance. “However, the COP21 agreement will provide the basis for additional public support and financing in growth regions, which should offset this development in the longer term.”
“Momentum has shifted from mature markets in Europe and the US to emerging markets and Moody’s now expects that new equipment growth over the next five years will come from emerging markets such as India, Brazil and, increasingly, Africa,” Moody’s said in a statement released this week, reiterating the growing importance of emerging markets that has been central to the wind industry for nearly two years now. In early 2015, the Global Wind Energy Council released its flagship report in which it highlighted the fact that global wind energy growth was led by emerging markets in Africa and Latin America. “The need for clean, sustainable indigenous power sources to fuel economic growth throughout Africa, Asia and Latin America is increasingly being met through wind power, and this will continue for the foreseeable future,” said Steve Sawyer, GWEC Secretary General at the time. Since then, we have seen the importance of emerging markets only increase, highlighted most recently as emerging markets ousted European countries from EY’s Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index, representing half of the Index’s countries. A further report published in March concluded that 63 GW of new wind power capacity is expected to be commissioned in the Asia Pacific (excluding China) region over the next decade.
Moody’s own report highlighted reports from earlier this year that showed China had brought its cumulative installed wind capacity past the European Union for the first time, reaching 145.3 GW, with the EU at 141.6 GW. Emerging markets as a whole combined for 62% of all new equipment orders, and Moody’s explains that the Paris Agreement is likely to continue to support further growth in these markets. Meanwhile, the European market is expected to experience a 5%-10% contraction of sales in 2017-18 due to decreasing subsidy schemes, scarcity of onshore positions, and a slowing extension of large-scale transmission lines resulting in slower demand.
However, the continued growth of the European offshore wind industry is likely to put a pin in Moody’s predictions, as the industry only continues to grow, and investment into the sector continues to support continued growth.