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Batteries

Published on May 8th, 2016 | by Guest Contributor

165

How BMW Should Respond To The Tesla Model 3 (& Model S & X)

May 8th, 2016 by  


Editor’s note: After writing a superb take on Tesla, the Model 3, the Supercharging network, and the auto industry’s response to Tesla these past several years, EV thought leader and early BMW ActiveE and i3 driver Tom Moloughney has written another great article detailing what he sees as BMW’s best hope for competing in the all-important electric vehicle market in the coming years (and not being relegated to the history books). It’s another superb read, so I’m reposting it here, and thanks to Tom for sharing. Enjoy!

BMW-i5-rendering

My concept 2020 BMW i5. BMW’s answer to Tesla’s Model 3 (shown in Moloughney Red) Designed in conjunction with BMWBLOG

In last week’s post, we looked at the impact that Tesla’s Model S has had on the sales of competing vehicles in the large luxury segment in the US. That set the table for the question of whether or not the Model 3 can have equal or perhaps even greater success in the entry-level, premium segment when it hits the streets sometime in the end of 2017 or early 2018. That segment has been owned by BMW’s 3-Series for decades, and BMW isn’t going to just give it up without a fight.

But what exactly can BMW do? The Model 3 has captured the imagination of the public and Tesla received over 400,000 reservations in the first three weeks after the reservation process opened. That staggering number has undoubtedly caused a few sleepless nights for product planners of various OEMs. In fact, if we look at theory of diffusion of innovations, the interest in the Model 3 would absolutely prove that the electric vehicle market has now moved beyond the innovators and early adopters, and we are now well into the early majority phase. That’s good news for Tesla, but is BMW also ready to capitalize on the inevitable market shift we are witnessing?

The short answer is yes, they absolutely can. In fact, they are probably positioned better than any other OEM to do so because of the tremendous investment that they have made in BMW i. They’ve poured billions into the i division, and it wasn’t just for the i3 and i8. Lessons learned working with CFRP, aluminum, and a variety of sustainable materials and manufacturing processes will be carried into future plug-ins. In fact, it’s doubtful any auto manufacturer has spent more restructuring the company in preparation for the shift to electrics than BMW has over the past seven years. However, the remarkable Model 3 reservation list probably indicates that they need to accelerate their EV programs and bring some vehicles to market a little sooner than they might have planned if they want to minimize defection from the brand. The good news for BMW is that Tesla can have a million reservations, and that won’t mean they can actually make the cars fast enough to satisfy demand. In fact, every car Tesla has released so far has has been delayed, and even when they initially “launch” the vehicle, it takes them 4 to 6 months before they are making them in serious volume and the first few months of production are usually plagued with quality issues. [Editor’s note: This article was written & published before Tesla’s latest conference call emphasizing design for manufacturing and several other factors that could make the Model 3 launch much different than the Model S or Model X launch, and shocking everyone with new 2017 and 2018 production targets.]

Model3banner1

The Tesla’s Model 3 is predicted to launch in late 2017

So even if Tesla does manage to have a few ceremonial Model 3 deliveries in late 2017 as promised, they probably won’t be making them in volume much before the summer of 2018, and I highly doubt they will deliver more than 30,000 to 40,000 Model 3s before the end of 2018. By the time 2019 rolls around, Tesla will likely have initial quality issues worked out and will be able to begin really producing the vehicle in high volume. So BMW has about three years to produce a vehicle to compete in this segment which will curb mass defection from the loyal 3-Series following, as well as keep the BMW name synonymous with innovation, performance, and sustainability.

Does BMW have a vehicle in development that can compete in this class that has already been green-lighted for production? Yes they do, the 2020 i5. We’ve all read an assortment of i5 predictions from various “BMW insiders” ranging from it being a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle, to an EV with a range extender. If BMW is serious about competing in this space, then it shouldn’t be either. The i5 needs to be a long-range electric vehicle — there’s no need to mess around with range extenders or fuel cells. The remainder of this post is purely my thoughts and predictions on what BMW should and could do to remain a leader in the industry. I have nothing concrete to base these opinions on, and everything you read below is purely speculative.

The cornerstone of the BMW i will be the 2020 i5 which will launch in mid 2019 with the following specs:

BMW-i5-rendering

  • Five door hatchback w/seating for five
  • Aluminum frame, CFRP body same as i3 & i8
  • 78.75 kWh battery pack, with 70 kWh usable
  • EPA rated range of 245 MPC
  • Capable of charging at 150 kW
  • 345 hp and 375 lb-ft torque. 0–62 mph in 5.0 seconds
  • All-wheel-drive option
  • Options include HUD, panoramic roof, various “BMW Driver Assistant” autonomous driving features.

So why doesn’t BMW bring the i5 to market sooner and beat Tesla to the punch? Is it because they don’t think the market is ready, or they just don’t believe in long-range electric cars just yet? The answer to both of those questions is no. It’s all about the batteries. Tesla knows this, and refused to wait for the market to bring cutting-edge battery cells to them. Instead, they are building what will be the largest battery factory in the world, to supply their cars with the best batteries as soon as they are available. BMW, along with the rest of the OEMs, will rely on third-party suppliers for their battery cells. It’s too early to tell which strategy is best, but once the Gigafactory is operational, it should provide Tesla with the advantage of having the best cells available and at a lower cost, but that has not yet been proven.

Why 2019? That’s because Samsung SDI, BMW’s battery partner, is scheduled to bring to market its next-generation lithium-ion battery cell sometime in 2019. These new cells have been described by Samsung as the “Low Height Pack” cell generation because they aren’t nearly as tall as the batteries currently used in the i3, which will allow for a lower seating position. However, the real progress is in the specific energy of the cells and the cost. The current i3 uses 60Ah cells that are believed to have a specific energy of 130 Wh/kg. The 2017 i3 is rumored to be using the latest Samsung SDI cells that are the same physical size as the 60Ah cells, but are 94Ah with a specific energy of about 190 Wh/kg. These new cells are going to increase the i3’s range from 81 miles per charge to about 120 MPC. However, that still isn’t good enough for the long-range Model 3 competitor that the i5 needs to be. The 2020 i5 will use Samsung’s Low Height Pack cells that are estimated to be about 125Ah with a specific energy of about 250Wh/kg, nearly double the energy density of what the current i3 batteries have, and cost less than the current 60Ah cells do. These cells will allow BMW to stuff a 78.75kWh battery pack into the i5 and still keep the weight under 4,000 lbs.

Samsung SDI LHP BMW batteries

A Samsung SDI rep holding their new “Low Height Pack” cells, which won’t be available until 2019. Notice the energy rating is not listed on the cell as it is on the other batteries on display. Also note the low height as compared to the 94Ah cell on the left. That 94Ah cell is rumored to be in the 2017 BMW i3, and is the same physical size as the 60Ah cell used in current i3s.

The i5’s battery pack I’m designing would consist of 14 modules, each containing 12 battery cells for a total of 168 cells. If BMW allows 90% of the pack to be available, that means 70kWh of usable energy and an EPA range of about 245 miles per charge. It will also accept up to 150 kW of DC power and utilize the emerging network of 150 kW DC fast chargers that, by then, will begin being funded by members of the CharIn EV association. The network will be minuscule compared to Tesla’s Supercharger network, and Tesla still has a huge advantage there, but at least customers will see a path to what someday could rival the Supercharger network, which currently doesn’t exist. I’m not even ruling out a partnership with Tesla, where the other OEMs pay Tesla to install 150 kW CCS stations at every Supercharger location. After all, at Audi’s 2014 LA Auto Show press conference, the automaker promised they would have a network of 150kW DC fast charge stations installed and operational before they launch the 2019 e-tron Quattro. How else could they accomplish that?

BMW i3 battery

The i3’s battery tray.

Granted, even if BMW hits the mark with the i5, the Model 3 is going to be a widely popular vehicle as long as Tesla can manage to deliver what they have promised. However, a strong competitor from BMW, like what the i5 has the potential to be, can limit the number of sales the Model 3 takes from BMW in this segment. The i5 will cost more than the Model 3, starting at $49,990. However, the standard i5 will be better optioned than the standard Model 3, and I believe a loaded Model 3 will end up costing around $60,000 anyway. Therefore the average purchase price of the two cars may only be $6,000 to $8,000 apart.

That said, the i5 isn’t the only plug they’ll have in 2020. By then, BMW’s entire array of models will offer PHEV options. They already sell the X5 40e plus the 330e, and by the end of the year will have the 740e in showrooms. Sometime in 2017, the 540e will be added to the iPerformance PHEV line. These are all very competent PHEVs, and the reviews have been very positive with regards to the driving experience they offer. The only problem I have with these cars is the AER. None of these vehicles boast an EPA range of even fifteen miles per charge, and I just don’t find that acceptable in 2016. If BMW wants customers to see the value in paying more for the plug-in version of any car in their line, it has to deliver an electric range that can save them a reasonable amount in fuel to offset the couple thousand dollars extra the vehicle costs, and 13 miles of electric range just doesn’t do it.

BMW i performance

BMW now calls the PHEV line that comes from their conventionally powered vehicles “iPerformance”

BMW needs to upgrade the batteries in its PHEVs to the higher-density cells coming to market now, and then again in 2019. If BMW were to use the higher-energy cells available later this year, the AER of its iPerformance PHEVs would jump up to about 20 miles per charge without increasing the battery’s physical size or weight. Then, in 2019, when the 125Ah cells are available, BMW can bring the 2nd-generation PHEVs to market with a boost to 30–40 miles of electric range. This won’t satisfy the hardcore EV aficionado, but there will be plenty of people looking to buy their first plug-in. These people aren’t ready for a 100% electric car, and a PHEV with a respectable AER will bring them (or keep them loyal) to the brand.

The final piece of the puzzle is the 2nd-generation i3. Using Samsung’s Low Height 125Ah cells means BMW can offer a 48kWh i3, which would most likely have about 180 miles of electric range. I expect BMW to stick with the range extender option when the 2nd-generation i3 is released, so the choices will be the 180 mile BEV and a REx that has about 325 miles of combined range, and both versions will charge at 150 kW like the i5. I also expect it to have the functionality to turn the REx on manually when the operator wishes, because BMW will have worked out the issues with CARB and the BEVx designation, which is why the current i3’s range extender is restricted from using the built-in Hold SOC Mode that European i3 owners get to use. Expect the gen-2 i3 to be slightly larger than the current model, and I’m betting BMW will replace the rear coach doors with conventionally opening ones. They will also figure out how to add a third seat in the back. BMW will improve the drivetrain efficiency as well as add about 20 hp and 25 lb-ft of torque. 0 to 60 times for the BEV will be in the mid-6-second range.

Mini-Rocketman-0

BMW will bring the MINI Rocketman BEV to market in 2018

One last prediction. In 2018, BMW will introduce the MINI Rocketman and it will be available in pure BEV and use many of the i3’s components. It will have about a 100 mile range and at launch be available only as a hardtop. However, the following model year it will also be offered in convertible trim, finally giving the EV faithful an attractive and sporty electric ragtop offering.

While BMW’s i5 will be the Model 3’s direct competitor, I believe it’s going to take an entire portfolio of plug-ins for BMW to remain competitive in the ever-expanding plug-in market. While BMW absolutely needs a flagship long-distance pure EV, there is no “one size fits all” in the automobile industry, and the plug-in market is no exception. This is one area where BMW has a clear advantage over Tesla. By 2020, BMW will have no fewer than seven models with plugs in their showrooms, and most likely that number may actually be closer to ten models. If the incredible number of reservations the Model 3 has amassed has proven anything, it’s that the public is absolutely ready for compelling electric vehicle options. Tesla has captured the imagination of the world. It has proven that this can indeed be done and people want to support the company for doing so. Your move, BMW.

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  • Oy… when you finally go to check the comments on an article and there are … 147! Not sure if I should wade into this discussion or protect myself and my night’s sleep. 😀

  • For a traditional ICEV manufacturer to compete with Tesla they will have to believe as Tesla does that ICE vehicles are bad, ICE vehicles must disappear as quickly as possible, only a full electric platform commitment makes sense, CO2 is a serious issue, etc. No traditional ICEV mfg can currently afford to have this mindset. They have too many entrenched interests in the old ways and would require a massive commitment to scale up battery and electric motor production to the levels needed to compete with Tesla. Not to mention basic beauty and design. No one has demonstrated a willingness to make a beautiful EV other than Tesla.

  • NRG4All

    It will be interesting to watch Tesla’s Supercharger network. Many articles point to BMW or Nissan striking some deal with Tesla to use their chargers. I’m not sure that would be in Tesla’s best interests. First, a big allure for Tesla is that it has the charging network and the others don’t. Second, it would be disheartening if the Superchargers get filled up with competing brands. If the 400,000 reservations for the Model 3 are any indication, we may see a great deal more utilization of the Superchargers so that adding competitive brands may cause a problem.

    • C M

      It makes no sense for each EV to have its own charger network. Like gasoline, EV chargers need to be universal.

      • NRG4All

        I agree but I don’t think that it should be up to Tesla to provide that. A standard needs to be created so that all cars can be charged on the network. Thus, I’d rather see BMW and Nissan belly up to the bar and work with Tesla to expand the network. That is provide a lot of cash to install stations where there are no chargers today. Then it could be much like gas stations. Then we wouldn’t have the worry like I mentioned to own a Tesla and find that you can’t charge because a BMW or a Nissan is blocking you.

  • Patrick

    I’m not sure an i5 could compete with Tesla. The i3 already has a higher starting price point than the model 3. That i5 would even be more expensive than that

    • Yes… the battery costs would have to come down a great deal, and the cost or use of carbon fiber.

      • Patrick

        I didn’t think about the carbon fiber. Seems like that is their only chance considering it’ll take a lot of effort and a new strategy for someone to beat Tesla on battery costs from here on out.

  • nakedChimp

    The only competition for Tesla will come out of Asia.. probably China.
    Everybody else will be laggards.

    • Jenny Sommer

      I don’t know about that. The most advanced battery packs are arguably built in Austria at the moment.
      They managed to double the range (kWh) of the E-golf while keeping the weight and volume of the battery (not even more expensive than Tesla btw.)
      That’s better than Tesla does.
      They also converted a Skoda Yeti for VW.
      So VW knows very well what can be done.
      Their battery packaging and managing technology would also be a good candidate for the Mini Rocketman.
      There are other small manufacturers at least on the same technology level as Tesla.

      The Germans are just waiting for the battery tech to be ready. Mercedes is working together with BYD and just because you don’t hear anything on CT doesn’t mean there is nothing happening.
      CT is highly Tesla centered to say it in a neutral way. That’s OK but I don’t believe they really get the whole picture.
      Tesla doesn’t have the ICE business to protect. If it was selling millions of ICE cars it would be waiting too.

      http://m.diepresse.com/home/wirtschaft/economist/4981120/index.do?from=suche.intern.portal

      That’s just one small technology example.
      In due time there will be enough competition from Europe.

      • nakedChimp

        I’ve seen that stuff over there, I was born there.. unless it’s niche and can afford higher wages it will be made in Asia.
        They can’t exactly wait for the tech to be ready as the ones who make the tech and assemble it for use will learn the most (Tesla, Nissan, BYD, etc.).
        If they are not building a Giga factory right now they will definitely miss out on this one as the Asians do it or Tesla. The Asians will have the R&D on the ground on the plant floor and will see what works and what doesn’t and make the patents and all the other stuff that comes with learning by doing.
        The German car manufacturers will be like GM/Ford in Detroit when the Japanese geared up.
        They will still exist in 10-20-30 years time, but the action will be some place else unless they get their collective butts out of their chairs and get moving, fast moving.

        • Jenny Sommer

          Kreisel is building a new plant that will assemble 800.000kWh of packs next year.
          They also license the technology and China will produce 40.000+ packs with Kreisel technology this year.
          They are using the same cells as Tesla but get a much higher energy to weight and energy ti volume ratio due to their advanced cooling/heating system.
          Guaranteed 400.000km till end of life (80%).
          18min charging to 80%, 28min full.

          The battery technology in the i3 is much more advanced than Tesla batteries. They should last 20.9years.

          Two areas where Tesla is the leggard.

          • eveee

            I’m sorry Jenny, that’s just wrong.

            Tesla. 99kwhr/550kg=0.1666

            Kreisel 55.7kwhr/330kg = 0.1687

            Virtually identical

            Tesla warranty 8 yr, unlimited miles. From CT article degradation 3% in 30k mi, then 4% by 60k miles. Should be good over 200k miles.

            Kreisel warranty is 400km to 80%.

            Not much different there, either.

            Nice that they are similar, but superiority is a stretch.

        • ROBwithaB

          Think about this: if Tesla is able to ramp up to a production rate of 450,000 vehicles within eighteen months, what is to stop other, more experienced manufacturers from doing the same?

          The electric bits and pieces aren’t actually the hard part. What has been hampering Tesla’s production is actually all the other stuff. Seals on windscreens, door handles, sensors, motors, trim, panel alignment, paint shop, inventory issues, etc etc. The everyday stuff that German manufacturers do quite well. The big companies also have broader supply chains and significant benefits in economies of scale (assuming they can cross-spec stuff from their existing ICE offerings). A lot of the newer German body styles have been designed from the ground up to allow for easy conversion to EV. They don’t need to “reveal” their new design. It already exists (albeit with an ugly smelly diesel engine on board). In fact, there are quite a few different platforms already on the road, just waiting for suitable electric underpinnings.

          The point is that a manufacturer like VW will be able to respond quite quickly, once they decide to commit. They already have multiple road-tested vehicle platforms, the factories, and the suppliers. I have no doubt that they have numerous different electric drivetrains in the testing phase. Similarly, it is very likely that they are assessing various different battery suppliers.
          My gut feeling is that VW is no longer a comfortable place for the conservative old guard. and many were ousted (or left) after the whole diesel scandal, to be replaced by a younger generation that is culturally and morally aligned with the whole “Energiewende” philosophy. The German technical education system is still very strong. Lots of very bright minds, well educated, with lots of resources at their disposal. And a lot of the nation’s wealth is tied up in the success of the German motor industry. I wouldn’t be too hasty to write them off…

          Tesla’s battery strategy might prove to be a winner, or it might prove to be a dud. Time will tell. From a risk point of view, I’d rather have three or four different Asian manufacturers building their own battery gigfactories, at their own risk, and competing constantly for the right to supply cells to my spec, than committing a few Bill to a particular strategy in one location in the Nevada desert.

          Sure, Tesla will almost certainly have a head start. But the tech is improving quickly, and we all know that battery costs as a proportion of total costs of an EV are likely to keep falling. So the battery advantage is possibly overblown. Does it really matter that one company’s battery pack is 20% more expensive, if that only represents 5% of the total cost of the car?

          When we look back in retrospect in a decade or two, the story is unlikely to be as simple as most people here are making it out to be.

          I’m still long Tesla, but I sold out a bunch at (just over) 260, and took up a stake in VW. Just to have two horses in the race…

          • eveee

            What’s to stop them?
            Commitment.
            They lack,
            Charger networks
            Battery factories
            EV design know how

            But most of all their pride and decades of doing it the same limits them. They could copy Tesla verbatim, but are they? No. They don’t seem to understand the idea of Tesla giving them the plans. They act like its a trick and they have to develop their own secret tech.

            So really tech is not why they are failing. MB and Toyota had access. What did they do? Blew it.

            See, nobody believes Musk. They can’t believe a guy that says he wants to change the world for mankind not himself. The investors don’t believe him when he says he will sew all his profits into growth. Good thing or they would never give him the money.

            See everybody assumes he’s the same old egotistical, self centered auto exec, he’s not, he’s an idealist with a practical bent.

            He’s learned the acilles heel of capitalism. If you tell everyone you are doing everything for humanity, they will all clap and assume you mean a dollar for charity. So you can do that and stand up and say there will be no profits for years because we will grow and my goal is to revolutionize EVs by making the best cars on earth ( investors be damned) and they all turned a firehose of cash on him and started dreaming of profits. to them, he was Mark Zuckerberg, a schmuck with no morals and no product that recognized how to exploit human weakness. Not so Musk.

            And he wisely appealed directly to the 1% to fund his company. That’s genius s combined with good intent. Rare is the human being who wouldn’t run out and waste all that doing naughty stuff like that straubel guy. I am telling his mother.

      • Thanks. I don’t recall running into news of these guys before, but we now have some people working on a piece on them.

  • Brunel

    Normal door handles!

    I hope Bjorn does a fuel economy test with fake door handles to reveal how much Tesla saved by having those door handles.

    • eveee

      Aero is the sum of many parts, not one thing. If you start going the opposite direction you wind up with a Pinto.

  • QKodiak

    Your concept vehicle looks very much like the Mercedes B-class which isn’t selling too well. Americans like sedans. Europeans like hatchbacks and wagons. We need EVs in both flavors, but so far, people are voting for EV sedans with their money (Tesla Model III).

  • josef novak

    Lol BMW i5 without net of superchargers is just orphan on the road. They still dont get it that they are doomed.
    When they will come with TM3 vehicle competitor they will find out that all that Tesla features added with sensors, firmware and autopilot are more important than car itself and that they are again behind 😀

  • Ken

    BMW is actually one of the worst makers of BEVs at the moment with clueless designs and specs that are 5 years behind the competition.

    The i3 is a complete sales failure. It is the perfect brain-dead fossil fuel car company response to BEVs. You want to drive electric? Here are your punishments: Off-putting eco-box looks. Ridiculous low range. Ridiculous high price. Boring performance. Tiny with cramped, claustrophobic interior.

    The above are just some of the reasons the Model S outsells the i3 by almost 5 to 1, even though the Tesla costs more than twice as much.

    This article may be too old to realize that Tesla is now on track to deliver over 100,000 Model 3s in 2017 and 400,000 by 2018.

    Meanwhile the i5 does not compete with the Model 3 at all. For about the same price, you will be able to get a Model 3 with much greater range (over 300 miles) that will be much faster and also have autopilot.

    BMW also shows no sign of preparing to be able to sell BEVs in any meaningful volume. You need Gigafactories for that and BMW does not seem to be building any.

    BMW has basically admitted they are, at the very least, 5 years behind Tesla and show no signs of catching up since Tesla tech continues to move forward at Silicon Vally tech start-up speeds as opposed to dinosaur fossil fuel car company speeds.

    • nakedChimp

      VARTA (batteries, I think I still have some NiCd and NiMH from them around some where) once belonged to the Quandt Family that owns the majority of BMW.
      They sold it a couple of years back and then the thing was liquidated.
      Pretty dumb move if one wants to build a BEV if you ask me..

    • Jenny Sommer

      BMW is at least usig the superior battery technology/chemistry.
      Combine that with a more advanced battery management system and put it the i5 or better i7 limousine.

      • Ken

        Wrong. BMW battery tech is way behind Tesla as proven by the inferior performance of the i3 and i8.

        They are years behind in tech, exactly as I have said.

        That’s one of the reasons why Tesla so massively outsells BMW.

        • Jenny Sommer

          Ken. Do you have any clue about the Samsung cell chemistry in the i3 vs Tesla cell technology? I can see you don’t.
          There are 3 brothers in Austria that built better packs than Tesla with the same cells. They built a Panamera with 480km range that charges to 95% in 18min. They use laser to connect the cells…Tesla does not. Their packs are all useable as stationary storage when used in cars. Their packs even last longer due to better thermal management. They are lighter/better weight(and volume) to kWh ratio.
          So Tesla is behind a small company in pack design and battery management/charging speed and behind Samsung in chemistry.

          • Ken

            You just proved yourself completely ignorant about battery tech.

            Talking about an experimental pack that can’t possibly compete with Tesla is price point proves you have no understanding of the most basic engineering principles.

            You would also need to show proof that this battery exists and actually works since your lack of basic engineering knowledge would indicate that you would be incredibly easy to dupe.

            Also you have shown zero proof that Tesla is behind Samsung in chemistry because there are exactly zero production BEVs with range and performance that match Tesla in the entire world.

            So you would need to show proof instead of your fact-less claims if you ever want to have even the slightest bit of credibility.

          • Jenny Sommer

            Just look up Kreisel.
            They have built hundreds of EVs and are widely recognized in the industry.
            http://plugin-magazine.com/living/kreisel-electric-builds-factory-austria/

            Their cars match Tesla in range and their pack is superior.

            http://www.kreiselelectric.com/projekte/electric-porsche-panamera/

            http://www.kreiselelectric.com/projekte/

            No need to get personal, just check the facts.

          • Ken

            First, you seem to have very low reading comprehension skills since it is clear that you got personal first. You wrote: Do you have any clue about the Samsung cell chemistry in the i3 vs Tesla cell technology? I can see you don’t.

            Next your low reading comprehension and lack of basic engineering understanding is proven by the links you sent. The battery tech is quite inferior to Tesla.

            Directly from your links:

            It has much less range. 179 miles on the Euro test is easily less than 150 EPA.

            The 0-60 doesn’t touch Tesla.

            The company promises 80% charging in less than an hour in the future while Tesla is already at 70% in 30 minutes, so no comparison there either.

            So, not as fast, less range and slower charging proving the battery is inferior in every way to the Tesla, exactly as I said.

            There is zero reason to turn to this company to make anything better because they remain far behind.

            Thanks for proving my point for me.

          • Jenny Sommer

            Kreisel Batteries charge to 95% in 18min. That’s remarkable and superior to Tesla.
            Their service life is longer due to better BSM.

            Now maybe Tesla can mass produce cheaper cars but they are clearly lagging in technology.

            This just shows that VW could use Kreisel technology to built long range EVs matching Tesla (and surpassing them in battery service life) yet they don’t.
            So what are their motives and why are they waiting?
            But surely their knowledge about Kreisel gave them confidence that rapid charging the Mission E to 80% in 15minutes is indeed possible already.

          • Ken

            You are now just making things up.

            On their own website Kreisel clearly states that – in the future – their batteries will charge to 80% in 1 hour while Tesla already charges to 70% in just 30 minutes – right now. So Tesla is clearly vastly superior.

            There is also zero proof that Kreisel batteries have any service life longer than Tesla so you are making things up – again.

            The fact is that Kreisel batteries lifespan is so poor, they are only guaranteed for 250,000 vs Tesla which are guaranteed for infinite miles. So there is no comparison in tech – again.

            You have completely failed to prove any of your claims – again.

            Stop making things up. You can’t fool anyone.

          • Jenny Sommer

            http://www.kreiselelectric.com/blog/kreisel-praesentiert-vollkommen-neue-high-performance-batterie-pack-technologie/

            80% in 18minutes. (95% in 23 min)
            That’s the battery you can buy today.
            That’s superior to 70% in 30 min.

            Their goal is 80% in 5 minutes.

          • Ken

            You just proved you have zero understanding of battery tech – again.

            That battery is one half the size of Tesla’s so the comparison is completely meaningless. It’s as brain-dead as saying your iPhone battery is better because it charges faster than a Tesla.

            The Kreisel battery you referenced would not have anywhere near the range or power of the Tesla’s battery.

            When Kreisel attempts to make a battery similar in size to Tesla, it takes much longer than any Tesla battery to charge, exactly as I said. That is the reality.

            Even in the future, Kreisel admits their larger batteries will still charge slower than a Tesla battery can, right this minute.

            So, once again, I have proved that Kreisel is far behind Tesla tech – even in the future.

            You need to learn to read more carefully and have someone explain to you the fundamentals of battery tech before making silly claims.

          • Jenny Sommer

            The size of the battery is not important as long as you keep the charge rate. Any one of their packs can be charged around 2C on average.
            Tesla charges at a little over 1C on average.
            The DC CCS chargers they use inhouse deliver 150kW at the moment. The standard will be able to charge at 300kW in the future.

          • Ken

            You just proved you would fail the most basic class in electronics.

            Smaller batteries are much easier to charge faster.

            Your argument is as brain-dead as claiming a iPhone battery is more advanced than a Tesla battery because it charges faster. It charges faster because it is smaller – not better.

            Try getting someone with 4th grade reading comprehension to slowly read and explain that and this next sentence to you…

            Even in the future, Kreisel admits their larger batteries will still charge slower than a Tesla battery can, right this minute.

            You have completely failed to show anything that indicates the above is not 100% accurate – again.

            You have been proved completely wrong and totally ignorant about the most basic battery tech, multiple times now.

            Try being a man and admit it. Your claim has been proven 100% false.

          • Please be nice. Talking trash about the content is one thing…there’s no need to attack people here…as you have done over and over again.

            Also, I don’t think Jenny Sommer is a man. 😉

          • Agree with Kyle. Let’s stick to discussing the merits (or not) of the content and not making personal attacks.

          • Ken

            You just proved you would fail a 4th grade test in reading comprehension – again.

            That battery is one half the size of Tesla’s so the comparison is completely incompetent. It’s as brain-dead as saying your iPhone battery is better because it charges faster than a Tesla.

            When Kreisel attempts to make a battery similar in size to Tesla, it takes much longer than any Tesla battery to charge, exactly as I said. That is the reality.

            Kreisel has exactly zero batteries similar to Tesla’s size that can charge anywhere near as fast exactly as I said and as Bob Wallace has said.

            You have completely failed to show anything that indicates the above is not 100% accurate – again.

            By repeating this false information after you have been repeatedly educated about it being meaningless, you are proving yourself to be completely ignorant of the most basic battery technology or dishonest. Pick one.

          • Jenny Sommer

            This pack is an example. They will also built a 85kWh pack for you that charges at 2C average.

            All it proves is that Tesla has no technology advantage or isn’t using it in current production.
            They have an advantage in volume production of cells with the gigafactory.
            Yet there Samsung/BMW is using better chemistry (more expensive though.)

          • Ken

            Wrong – again.

            The pack you have shown is an example of how far behind Tesla Kreisel remains.

            Here are the facts again…

            Your own link clearly shows the similar Kreisel battery is:

            Inferior to Tesla in charging speed.
            Inferior to Tesla in range.
            Inferior to Tesla in acceleration
            Inferior to Tesla is service life.

            The above has proven you wrong and you have failed to show any facts that indicate differently.

            There is also nothing superior about any BMW/Samsung battery to Tesla.

            The BMW batteries are:

            Inferior to Tesla in charging rate.
            Inferior to Tesla in range.
            Inferior to Tesla in acceleration
            Inferior to Tesla is service life.

            Glad I could educate you on these simple facts – again.

          • Jenny Sommer

            Ken, batteries don’t accelerate, cars accelerate.

            You are not even able to charge a 85kWh Tesla pack at 2C because the SC can’t do that at the moment.

          • Ken

            You keep proving that you don’t understand anything about battery technology.

            Tesla battery design is critical to the Tesla being able to accelerate faster than any production sedan on the planet.

            The Tesla battery operates at well over 6C to do this and delivers about 1500 amps to motor.

            The Kreisel battery is vastly inferior to the Tesla battery and is completely unable to deliver this level of acceleration.

            The more you attempt to talk about things you have absolutely no understanding of, the more you destroy all your credibility.

          • eveee

            Hmmmm. All the sources say NCA doesn’t go more than 1C, but clearly Tesla does more than 6C. 1500A X 400v = 600kwhr. Bear with me. They can’t do that continuous. But if you compare to 75 kwhr, you get the current ratio. Steady current is 75 kwhr/ 400V. You can com pater hat current to 1500A for a different calculation. 6C checks out.
            Somebody should look into that 6C thing with NCA. Nobody else seems to be able to squeeze so much out of them. See what I mean by being careful about the cell spec vs actual performance?

          • Ken

            Nothing you said changes the fact that the Kreisel battery is vastly inferior.

          • eveee

            I think that’s what i said. We are agreeing. I can’t dpfigure out how tesla managed 6C with NCA when most sources max it at 1C. Probably short term, but even that’s a lot.

          • Ken

            It is the excellent cooling system and insulation around the individual cells that allows the battery to operate at very high C rates. Also, in ludicrous mode, a microprocessor controlled fuse and a material developed for spacecraft that can handle the heat of 1500 amps on a surface the size of a fingernail.

            Cool stuff.

          • eveee

            Yes. Thermal management is mandatory for performance. That whole pack and cell is designed around thermal management and lowest energy cost/ highest energy density. Combined with large pack capacity for long range, power came easily after that was done. The choice of chemistries matters. Nissan got stuck inching from one chemistry to the next. And poor thermal man agent. The game of EV design is not that easy. If it were, everyone could make model S.

            It’s just that most references peg NCA C at about 1. Tesla does 6. Maybe the burst rate is higher. A123 pushed their C rates sky high with nano and other tricks. Tesla appears to be doing some tricks. The chemistries can be sort of blends it seems. And the silicon in the electrodes makes a difference, too. Secret sauce.
            I assembled LiFeP packs. When I saw how Tesla did it, I thought I was wrong at first, now I see the method to their madness. Straubel is one smart guy.
            IMO, When your design gets beat, don’t bad mouth the competition. Learn from it.
            Too many companies think its time to reinvent the wheel. Tesla gave away the patents, but other companies somehow don’t get the message. They seem to act like nothing is of value unless you can steal it.
            Does the world need therapy? Idk.

          • Ken

            For the fossil fuel car companies to maximize profits, it is in their interest to slow the adoption of BEV technology.

            That is why their goal, so far, is to make compliance style BEVs in compliance numbers to hit government mandates so they can keep raking in the real profits from their tens of millions dirty cars a year.

            The fossil fuel car companies continue to aggressively lobby the governments to make less green cars, not more. The longer they can put off massive retooling, the more profit they make.

            It is a sad and dangerous state of affairs that is causing environmental devastation.

          • eveee

            Technically, it’s about 1.6, but again, what difference does that make.
            I want to stop to eat and restroom break for 30 minutes. I don’t want to stop for 10 min.

            Don’t dismiss the acceleration. Porsche is slower by a wide margin. Tesla is wringing 6C out of the battery in acceleration. Can Porsche do that? Doesn’t seem so.

          • Jenny Sommer

            Word is under 4sec before optimization.
            I don’t know how much peak they can draw. It’s lighter than the MS85 despite they now using a 90kWh battery.
            Zach should order one for CT and test-drive it 😉
            The Panamera is not a bad car for a 4 headed family…too small for me though.

            They also did a Carrera before and dozens of other cars (MB-Sprinter, E-Golf, Skoda Yeti for an VW Exec,…). They will electrify anything for you.

            Faster charge times are more important to me than acceleration btw.
            Charging will be very important if people without access to night charging should adopt EVs.
            Kreisels goal is 80% in 5 Minutes.
            They are using 150kW CCS chargers which should be able to deliver 300kW some day.

          • eveee

            Give me one. I’ll drive it. Just like a little old lady on Sunday. 🙂 150kw is great. Wish I had some around here. That should charge I a hurry. You need 300kw to get 15 min out of a 90kwhr pack, but a 60 kwhr pack could do it. Right now, we have big batteries faster than chargers can handle.
            See this.
            http://cleantechnica.com/2016/02/14/battery-charging-explained-or-honey-who-shrunk-the-electrons/

          • Jenny Sommer

            And it’s not Porsche that is electrifying these cars, it’s Kreisel who just bought a production Carrera and then a production Panamera.

          • eveee

            Where is the proof that it’s superior in service life. Tesla 85kwhr packs have unlimited life warranty. A survey of degradation showed it fit 3% after 30k miles, then only 4% after 60k miles. At that rate They could easily get 200k miles keeping well over 80% charge.

          • Ken

            Tesla’s superior warranty shows the superior service life.

          • Jenny Sommer

            I don’t know how fast your I phone charges. Do you know? Probably not much over 1C since it got no active thermal management.

          • Ken

            You are now proving that you don’t even understand what the C rating is.

            Batteries can be charged at different C ratings. Tesla batteries charge at multiple C ratings.

            You still are completely failing to understand the most basic facts.

            I have proved that Kreisel batteries are vastly inferior to Tesla batteries.

            I have proved that Kreisel has no battery that has the same capacity and can charge as fast as a Tesla battery.

            You have been proven wrong many times now and continuing to attempt to deny this only further destroys your credibility.

          • Jenny Sommer

            Charge rate stays the same independent of battery size. Kreisel can charge any battery from 0-80% SOC in 18min if the charger can provide the needed kW.
            The superior cooling system will keep the temperature under 29°C all the time.
            http://www.kreiselelectric.com/blog/kreisel-praesentiert-vollkommen-neue-high-performance-batterie-pack-technologie/

          • Ken

            Completely wrong. You have no knowledge of basic electronics. The simple proof that anyone can understand is if they could, they would and they have not because they can’t. They are years behind Tesla in tech and every single thing you have shown only proves that fact again and again.

            There is no credible source that says their battery is in any way superior because it isn’t and you have completely failed to show anything thing different.

          • Bob_Wallace

            The way I read it is that they seem to have a better cooling system and can wick the heat away from the batteries faster than the Tesla cooling system does.

          • Ken

            They are just claims with absolutely no proof in the real world. The top text says 85kwh but then the spec capacity weirdly says about half that. So that is also a red flag.

            But even if we ignore that, they are claiming a range of a very low 184 miles on a European test scale – which would be even less in a EPA test so even their claimed battery range is actually incredibly inferior to a Tesla.

            Considering the very low EPA range, the charging is also slower than a Tesla which almost reaches the full milage capacity of this battery in just 30 minutes.

            They make the ridiculous claim of advantages to their cooling system but their own specs are inferior and show zero advantages. Doesn’t really inspire confidence.

            And, finally, they are making these claims without mentioning a vehicle which would have a major impact on the range of any battery. So making a battery range claim without a vehicle seems extremely dubious and another major red flag.

            But, still, even just with the info given, it is clear this battery is vastly inferior to Tesla tech and there is yet to be zero proof of its actual existence or use in the real world. Where is the price, for instance? Is it remotely competitive?

            If there ever is tech that is superior to Tesla you and I will both hear about it and it will be reported on this site as a big story. This ain’t it. It’s not even close.

          • Philip W

            You have also shown no proof that Teslas battery is superior. And FYI there is an article coming out about Kreisel on this site soon.

          • Ken

            You are completely wrong. Try actually reading my post. In case you missed it, here is the undeniable proof again:

            The Tesla battery has much greater proven range so Tesla superiority proved.

            The battery provides much greater proven acceleration so Tesla superiority proved again.

            The Tesla battery is proven to charge to more miles in less time so Tesla superiority proved again..

            So I just undeniably proved the Tesla battery is vastly superior to the Kreisel battery yet again even before the Kreisel battery has proved it can do any of its vastly inferior claims.

            It also doesn’t matter who writes an article about the Kreisel battery, because, if the article is the least bit competent or credible it will still point out that the Kresel battery is vastly inferior to the proven specs of the Tesla battery, exactly as I said.

          • Philip W

            You have proven something before it has proven itself? Haha you are making a joke out of yourself. Maybe you should learn what proof means first. As long as there is no real comparison between both batteries, there is no superior battery. Yes Tesla undeniably has a great battery, but without some independent testing we don’t know how good the Kreisel really is. Your like the car industry 10 years ago, dismissing something without really looking at it.
            But I guess in your universe it is also already proven that Tesla has better cooling.

          • Ken

            Completely wrong again. Try and follow these extremely simple facts.

            The Tesla battery specs have been proved many tens of thousands of times by actual cars on the road.

            The specs of the Kreisel battery are the specs claimed by the company and their own claimed specs are vastly inferior.

            Because of this, there is absolutely nothing independent testing will do that would change the fact that the Kreisel battery is vasty inferior to the Tesla battery.

            So even if the Kreisel battery is able to meet its own claimed specs in independent testing, it would still only prove the Kreisel battery is vastly inferior to the Tesla battery.

            If that is still too complex for you to comprehend here is an extremely simple example.

            The Tesla battery has a proven EPA range of 294 miles.

            The Kreisel battery has a claimed range of only about 180 miles. (and that would be on a Euro test cycle. On an EPA test cycle like Tesla uses, it would about 30% lower – 126 miles)

            So, as I have easily proved, the claims of the Kreisel battery are vastly inferior to the proven performance of the Tesla battery, exactly as I said.

            It would be completely incompetent to think that independent testing would shown that the Kreisel battery will magically out-perform its own claims by over 100 miles of range.

            And all other Kreisel claims about its battery performance are inferior to the Tesla as well.

            So no independent testing is needed to confirm the Kreisel battery is vastly inferior to the Tesla battery because Kreisel, itself, admits it.

            So I have proved, yet, again, that the Kreisel battery is vastly inferior to the Tesla battery. It is a simple fact.

            Glad I could clear up your extreme confusion.

          • Bob_Wallace

            The web site you linked says “in the future a charge of 80% within an hour possible”. Tesla is 10% to 80% in 40 minutes now.

            The web site you linked says 450 km with an 85 kWh battery pack. 270 miles. The Tesla S, a larger, heavier car with an 85 kWh pack had a 426 km/ 265 mile range.

          • Jenny Sommer

            Here is the pack technology they are producing now.
            http://www.kreiselelectric.com/blog/kreisel-praesentiert-vollkommen-neue-high-performance-batterie-pack-technologie/

            80% SOC in 18minutes.

            If you use the 85kWh Kreisel battery in a Tesla you will get the same 85kWh but less battery weight.
            It’s the same cells in a smaller pack and different thermal management.

          • eveee

            But does that matter? 30 minutes to 170 miles is all you need. Ten minutes less is nicer, but it just means less time to eat and go to the bathroom. I don’t see a huge advantage. One advantage is more cars per charge station. But CCS charge stations with over 100kw power are rare. Fast battery is no good without fast charger,

          • Jenny Sommer

            The Kreisel Panamera reaches 300kmh btw.
            Model S 210kmh… 😉

          • Ken

            Completely wrong again. The Tesla is electronically limited to 250 kmh, not 210. It is virtually useless for the car to go faster. The Tesla is very intelligently designed to completely dominate at speeds people actually drive and it completely crushes the Kreisel Panamera in acceleration, exactly as I said.

            You need to get your facts correct before you post if you ever hope to have any credibility.

          • ROBwithaB

            For the sake of the rest of us, could you please try to keep the conversation civil?

          • Ken

            If you actually try and read carefully, he was the one that did not keep the conversation civil.

          • ROBwithaB

            I suspect, with a name like Jenny Sommer, that he might actually be a she.
            All the more reason to be polite, in my old-fashioned world view.

          • Ken

            Politeness begets politeness.

            But you are right. I assumed I was dealing with a dude.

          • ROBwithaB

            Ah. okay. Ignore previous comment.

          • Ken

            He has been proven completely wrong. The Kreisel batteries are inferior to Tesla in every way.

          • eveee

            I looked. It’s 24.2 kwhr for 700 pounds of pack, not much different from the Leaf. Not as good as Tesla. 1300 pound 70 kwhr.
            Also, volume is 800,000 kwhr per year. That’s only 8,000 100kwhr packs.
            The Panamera is good, but not that good. Range is about the same as an S. Acceleration is slower.

          • Jenny Sommer

            Acceleration is sayed to be under 4 seconds, top speed over 300. Thr 90kWh KreiselnPanamera is also lighter than the 85 Model S. The old pack they put in the E-Golf was 55.7kWh/330kg (same weight and volume as the original pack of half the capacity)
            You confused the Kreisel Pack with the original VW pack.

            They only do 500 cars per year at the moment. Investing over 10 Million is pretty good in my book. Plus their technology is up for licensing. They have anboffucebin Shanghai and there will be 40k Kreisel packs built under license there this year.

          • eveee

            That was great in the old days six months ago. Tesla already did 3.3 and 2.8 seconds. That’s an eternity in super car acceleration. Not close in a race. Sorry, Porsche is slow by comparison.r
            My bad on the pack. I found a clearer reference

            “.vgKreisel has also swapped out VW’s 24.2 kWh battery pack in an e-Golf and replaced it with a 55.7 kWh Kreisel pack, with the weight (330 kg) remaining identical. The range improves from 190 to more than 430 km—i.e., from 120 to 267 miles.”

            So 55.7/330=0.1687kwhr/kg Kreisel

            90/540=0.1666 kwhr/kg

            Virtually identical

            I was wrong. Tesla has the better battery for power, but energy density is the same. Pretty good for Kreisel, but it’s not superior, just about equal.

            Tesla gave out the recipe so anyone could do it, what’s the big deal? Auto manufacturers don’t seem to know how to copy it even with free patents. We are waiting for somebody bigger than Kreisel to figure it out.

          • Jenny Sommer

            The benefit of the laser welded, solid core, nickel-cobalt-manganese cells in the BMW i series is a much longer service live than Teslas chemistry.

            Kreisel on the other hand uses the same cells Tesla does but has developed a 800.000€ laser welding machine plus their superior BMS.

            I am reluctant to buy a Tesla because if their inferior batteries that will effect resale value pretty bad.

            The 3 Kreisel brothers also ordered a Tesla once but concluded they could do a better job building their own packs and electrifying cars.

            Tesla on the other hand is mass producing cars. Not bad either but also good to know that it can get even better.

          • Ken

            Completely wrong – again.

            There is zero proof of the proven inferior Kreisel batteries lasting longer than a Tesla battery.

            The fact is the Tesla battery warranty is vastly superior to the Kreisel warranty. 250,000 miles to infinite miles. See the difference?

            Teslas have better resale value than their gasoline car competition and much better resale value than Kreisel because Tesla batteries are vastly superior and have a vastly superior warranty.

            The only reason Kreisel didn’t put a battery into a Tesla is because they are way behind in tech and couldn’t come close to the same specs.

            Try doing some actual research and reading much more carefully before you post.

          • ROBwithaB

            It is my understanding that the Tesla battery warranty is limited to eight years.
            Even with the most ambitious of travel plans, mileage will not be “infinite”.

            Also, I think it’s a GOOD thing that there some potential margin to eke out additional performance from existing cells by packaging them more efficiently. Sure, JB is a smart guy, but his original pack design is already almost a decade old. If he’s as smart as we think, is it not possible that he might have had some new ideas in the meantime? Especially now that they have a huge amount of data and experience?

            Did he just guess right the first time? Let’s give Mr Straubel the benefit of the doubt and assume that he’s not just been resting on his laurels for the past five years, blowing his stock holdings on hookers and blow. I think he spends a lot of time thinking about how he can do things better. And I suspect very strongly that he has quite a few tricks up his sleeve…

          • Ken

            Tesla never stops improving their batteries.

            That’s how they developed the 90kwh pack – improved battery cells.

            That’s how they increased acceleration from Insane to Ludicrous – improved battery.

            The Gigafactory will have even more advanced batteries.

            The point is Kreisel batteries are far behind Tesla and any claims to the contrary have effortlessly been proven false.

          • eveee

            The 85 kwhr and up batteries are unlimited warranty. You wear out before they do.

          • ROBwithaB

            This sounds interesting.
            It is quite possible that Tesla has not yet achieved optimal pack configuration. Likely, even. If it is possible to repackage the same cells in the way you describe, in a way that’s still affordable, what’s to stop Tesla from doing the same thing (or something similar) themselves?
            And indeed, if all the other automakers could achieve those sorts of results with existing cells right now, the revolution is ready to go.
            Does sound a little bit too good to be true, TBH. I’m not sure how the laser is involved…

            Do you have some links to share?

          • Jenny Sommer

            They developed a new way of welding the cells with laser investing 800k€ in this technology. It sounds like this would be very fast and that nobody believed it could work with these cells.
            They are building a new factory right now that will produce 800.000kWh of packs next year and production could be ramped up to double within a quarter.

            I want to ask Markus Kreisel some questions when I find the time. If he believes that cell production will be a constraint or if it would make sense for them too to move to a larger cell format like Tesla.

            In my opinion the existence of companies like Kreisel proves that the technology to built long range EVs is available to anybody going for it, especially VW.

            I am not sure the BMW carbon body is a way to get cost down. Otoh BMW i a premium brand and carbon is a way to set yourself apart.
            Building a conventional 350km series 3, maybe carbon body, high performance (topping out at 210kmh is not really acceptable on the German Autobahn) EV would go a long way.
            The way to go imho would be a car that is indistinguishable from the ICE version.

          • eveee

            Why is laser welding any faster or better than ultrasonic bonding? Is it cheaper or faster? They use ultrasonic in senpmiconductors for even high current power device packaging at extremely high volumes and at low cost. The limitations of the Tesla pack were not series resistance from contact, but fusing. Once the fuses were replaced with circuits, the max current went from 1300A to 1500A. The rest is battery internal resistance, which is pretty low, too.

      • eveee

        BMW uses NMC. Tesla uses NCA. NCA has superior energy density. NMC has better power density. Pretty sure tesla has lower cost.
        http://batteryuniversity.com/learn/article/types_of_lithium_ion

    • eveee

      I saw a ranking of miles/kwhr somewhere the other day. You expect Tesla low with a big heavy car. Not the lowest. Mercedes was worse. No excuse for that, poor design. But BMW was up there, not so bad. IMO, what’s wrong with the i3 is they put too much tech into lightening the chassis in an expensive way, too little into batteries, and made the car short and stubby with high frontal area and poor aero Cd. That cripples highway range, the weakness of EVs, not a good thing.
      Too costly and not enough range. But Mercedes is just poor. All the above and too heavy.

  • Farmer_Dave

    Looking at photos of the Model 3 and the i3 bring to mind “Beauty and the Beast”.

    • Booty is in the eye of the beholder…or something like that 😉 i personally like both.

  • Bob Vittengl

    In the car business you can either lead, follow, or get out of the way. In my opinion BMW can’t decide what to do, their composite body construction is world class 🙂 , needs to catch up on range , and have done nothing to develop charging infastructure ! I am afraid that they can’t even get the dealers to believe in their I series product and it’s great stuff.

    • Bob_Wallace

      Feels to me that the traditional car companies that have dipped a toe into EVs just haven’t figured out what Tesla is doing and what they must do if they really want to compete.

      It’s not enough to make long range EV if you don’t also provide a rapid charging system. It’s not enough to build a fancy light weight body if you stop there and don’t bring the rest of the package.

      The traditionals may limp along, falling further and further behind Tesla until they actually feel some market share loss pain and put leadership in place that takes EVs seriously.

      As someone earlier pointed out BMW may really take it in the shorts when the Model 3 deliveries start. That may be the first company to really lose market share to Tesla. Tesla has already grabbed some of their business with the Model S. The M3 is likely to jump right on top of the 3-Series sales.

      American manufacturers are more protected with their high margin pickups and SUVs.

      • Brunel

        Those who buy diesel BMWs are easy converts to Tesla cars.

        • Mike333

          More likely they’ll convert to BMW i series.
          As again Tesla isn’t going to be BMW at efficiency.

          • They are different cars though the Model 3 will definitely be more efficient than the Model S (3.3 miles per kWh). I believe the i3 is up over 4 miles per kWh and I averaged 4.1 miles per kWh in the Leaf over the few months I owned it.

          • eveee

            No. It’s reversed. Tesla efficiency is second to none. No BMW has anywhere near aero Cd=0.23

      • eveee

        More like they have NIH ( not invented here) and are trying to make every mistake before they learn the hard way. Tesla has given them everything they need, what do they need to learn for? They need to copy. Instead they have been insisting that short range EVs is fine and the can just make PHEVs. Or that they don’t need to get involved in a charging network. Or they can have slow charging. There’s nothing about invention in that. It’s just hard headed stubbornness of entrenched ICE. We saw it with VW. Now they are sorry. A bit late.
        It’s about human nature, ego, and pride. This emotional reaction with cognitive dissonance is bound to happen when a century old industry is retired.
        I can see a lot of demand for therapy couch time in my crystal ball.
        The first words are “everything was going so good and then it all vanished.”

      • It seems the Model S has already hurt BMW, Audi, Mercedes, and Lexus sales quite a bit. It seems a pretty huge given that the Model 3 will take a chunk out of their base models and up. The question I have is how much impact the sales hits will have on these companies, and will they be forced to have “too big to fail” discussions with their parent countries.

  • Robert Middleswarth

    Sorry I don’t agree. The only vendor with any change of competing with Talsa model 3 right now is the Chevy Bolt and even if it does well we don’t know how many other vehicles Chevy has in the pipeline to expand their EV market or how many Chevy Bolts they can actually get into production.

    • QKodiak

      Without a fast charging network, the Chevy Bolt is DOA and incomparable to the Tesla Model III which is an entry-level luxury/sport sedan that can travel across the continent using Superchargers, not an ecobox citycar with a Mercedes price tag just because it’s electric.

      • Robert Middleswarth

        Tesla Fast charging network is nice but it doesn’t cover the entire US at this point there are still places you can’t go and in some places like my home state DC fast chargers outnumber Telsa SC more then 2 to 1. But in both cases there are part of my state I couldn’t go to without having to find some kind of level 1 or level 2 plug and sit and wait for a charge to have any change to get to my destination.

        If having access to the Super Charger network is the only way for an EV to not DOA then get use to chocking on smoke and having ICE vehicles around for next hundred years. The fact is although DC fast charging networks aren’t growing in a designed way they are growing as fast as the Super Charger network if not faster.

        • Bob_Wallace

          By the end of this year there will be few places in the Lower 48 that one will not be able to drive in a 200 mile range Tesla. You should have no problem driving from Nashville to almost anywhere.

          Then imagine what the map will look like at the end of next year as Tesla prepares for a massive rollout of new EVs.

          .

          • Robert Middleswarth

            You are comparing today CCS network vs a possible super charger network layout. Granted I expect the network to look that way but it isn’t like CCS isn’t growing also. I expect that CCS will catch up to the super chargers rural coverage inside the US over the next few years. Telsa / SC main advantage right now is that rural coverage network.

            Got 2 different reply mixed up. He was just replying regarding Super Charger network.

          • Bob_Wallace

            I made no comparison with CCS network chargers, I said nothing at all about them. I showed you where Tesla is likely to be in about six months.

          • Robert Middleswarth

            Updated my comment to admit I mixed up 2 different replies in my reply.

          • Ken

            Your ‘suspecting’ something has nothing to do with reality.

            There are zero plans for CCS to come anywhere near catching up with Tesla.

            CCS chargers are not even placed for traveling. They are placed for local charging.

            Try and catch up.

          • Robert Middleswarth

            Your ‘suspecting’ something has nothing to do with reality.

            There are zero plans for CCS to come anywhere near catching up with Tesla.

            CCS chargers are not even placed for traveling. They are placed for local charging. — Ken

            CCS already outnumbers SC in my home state. CCS chargers are increasing location faster than SC. Yes they aren’t being placed with any kind of design like SC so for instance there are zero in the state of Montana right now. However as the number of stations goes up and the number of actual vehicles on the road that supports the CSS standard increase the nature flow will cause them to appear in places like Montana

          • Ken

            One state is a completely meaningless comparison.

            If they are not placed with traveling in mind, they will remain useless for travel – exactly as I said.

            You have completely failed to show anything that changes a single thing I wrote. But, I suppose if your goal was to prove my point for me, you’ve succeeded.

          • Robert Middleswarth

            If they are not placed with traveling in mind, they will remain useless for travel – exactly as I said. – Ken

            I never said CCS right now can do cross country infact I said the opposite right now the CCS stations are mostly in cities but they are expanding quickly. If they continue the growth and I see no reason they won’t then in a few more years they will also be in more rural area’s and cross country travel will be possible.

          • Ken

            Wrong. You continue to repeat the things that proved you completely wrong in the first place.

            It doesn’t matter if CCS expands if it doesn’t expand with a traveling network – and it isn’t and there are zero plans for it too.

            So comparing it, in any way, to Tesla’s network is incompetent at best and dishonest at worst. Pick one.

          • Robert Middleswarth

            ken,

            We have had a few back and forth like this. You are clearly a Telsa fan boy and believe CCS will never be anything more then a few local chargers that will never amount to anything. You seem to never look at the growth patterns of CCS and how many stations there already are in place. If these growth patterns continue there is no doubt the CCS network will be larger the only question is when will CCS move outside it very city concentric design and start moving into more rural area’s. We also don’t know what the states are going to do? Both Oregon and California are both funding Fast Charging sites in there states to filling in the area’s between cities. I am sure it is just a mater of time before states like Maryland, and New Jersey start building stations themselves.

            Thanks
            Robert

          • Ken

            You just proved you would fail a 4th grade test in reading comprehension. Nobody ever said anything about CCS being a few local chargers. Or maybe you can read and you are just being dishonest again. I guess you need to pick one answer there too.

            We know what plans there are for CCS to develop a network that rivals and allows travel like Tesla – zero plans.

            You are simply making things up that don’t exist because you are a proven GM fanboy.

            I list facts and reality. You list what you hope or think might happen with zero facts, which is why it is you who are the proven fanboy, not me.

            As I said before, continuing to try and compare a travel charge network that doesn’t exist and has zero plans to exist with a network that already exists and will double in size this year, alone is incompetent at best and dishonest at worst. Pick one.

            Those are your only choices.

          • ROBwithaB

            Who is installing all those CCS chargers right now?
            Who do you believe will install rural CCS chargers in future?

            I’m curious to hear your thoughts on the funding of a nationwide rollout.

          • Robert Middleswarth

            From what I can tell the overall cost of Fast Chargers are going down. Finding any kind of pricing information online is pretty rear but from the numbers I have seen costs seem to be around 8K for the chargers and 12K avg for the electrician, permits, and power company. I would bet the cost of chargers like the Level 2 ones are going down so most of the cost is installation.

            Who is installing all those CCS chargers right now? — ROBwithaB

            Not sure they seems to be falling into 3 groups.

            1) Car Dealerships I wont expect this group to grow much more.

            2) Malls, restaurants, and Convergence stores. Level 2 chargers are more common but more and more are getting fast chargers. Convenience stores installed gas pumps not because there is so much profit in selling gas. The profit is the people who pick up a soda, bag of chips or even a gallon of milk well getting gas. Fast Chargers will be cheaper to install and will keep people at the sites longer then gas so I can see Convenience stores greatly expanding Fast Charging as more and more EV are in the market.

            3) Hotels. Hotels are more likely to have Level 1 or Level 2 chargers but many are installing fast chargers. I expect within a year or two it will be hard to find an Hotel that doesn’t have at least 1 or 2 EV spots.

            Who do you believe will install rural CCS chargers in future? –ROBwithaB

            I expect some will come from the State governments. CA and OR are already either funding or partial funding rural chargers stations. I expect that will expand though much of the northeastern US. There also seems to be a fair amount of support in the southeastern US more then I would have expected.

            Some will come from charging network like ChargePoint and EVgo. Over time I expect they will expand even more into rural places to make their network more attractive to users. Billing with these networks still looks to be an issue over time I think they will find a way to get paid well still keeping the customer happy.

            I expect Convenience stores and Restaurants who’s life blood is people passing though on an interstate highway will start installing them as a way to compete. The model 3 is doing 1 thing it is getting a lot of attention. There are a lot of small mom and pop Convenience stores that are reading about them and wonder if they should be doing something to attract them to there shop.

            I’m curious to hear your thoughts on the funding of a nationwide rollout. — ROBwithaB

            Who is going to fund that rollout?

            The federal government? Not likely too many people in congress from both parties who get a lot of funding from FF providers that is at best an uphill battle. The best you could hope for would be a tax rebate or incentive to build in rural area’s and even that might not get though congress.

            Car Manufacture’s? Maybe. Telsa decided to do on it own and created it proprietary Super Charger Network. Several other are already working on building out networks like the program between BMW and EVgo. Other car makers have done similar programs but nothing major or in a joint operation.

            Car Dealership’s? Not in my life time.

            Who else is left?

          • eveee

            But it doesn’t matter if they are only 25 kW. Check how big they are. That’s useless unless you want to wait 2 hours for a “quick” charge ( for a Bolt). They are sized for an i3 that can only go 80 miles.

          • Please be nice. Even if someone is totally wrong, starting off by calling them disconnected from reality makes it hard to have a productive conversation.

            Regarding ‘try and catch up’ …I think that’s why we are all here – to learn 🙂

          • eveee

            Can I double up vote that. Me 2. Hard for me to be as nice as I need to be. Sometimes I have to say sorry. Miscommunication can cause problems. Expect it sometimes.

          • I do 🙂 And I’m all about just dealing with it because hey, I’m human too and these words don’t translate perfectly. On top of that, I also want to be intentional about shaping this community in a positive way. Encourage good stuff, y’know?

          • eveee

            Today’s SC network has some holes, but by the end of 2016 the entire US is within 200 mile range of a SC.

            https://www.teslamotors.com/supercharger

            Not so CCS. Can’t find any 100kw ones. Very few of weaker ones. Not only is the Bolt restricted to slowe charging, there are no chargers that can charge it in a half hour even with DCFC. Immediate fail.

        • QKodiak

          The fact that there are more DC “fast” chargers than Superchargers is a rather irrelevant fact since they are not usually located conveniently for interstate travel whereas Superchargers are, but instead are found in cities and many at dealerships (places I avoid like the plague). Also, all EV chargers help out Tesla owners since they can also use them with adapters. The difference is that Tesla Superchargers are the only fast chargers that are actually FAST which makes them fairly convenient. The Tesla Superchargers currently would get me anywhere I need and to go. I’m not the type to take a $90,000 car out in the middle of nowhere.

          New Teslas have a very good HEPA and carbon filters, so No. I’ll not be choking but breathing the cleanest of air.

          Cars without long range and fast charging capabilities are not very desirable to the average consumer. That’s why EVs haven’t caught on even though it’s been over a hundred years. Tesla Motors is so far the only automaker that seems to realize this simple fact. That is why they have over 400,000 orders for their Model III. THAT is what people want! Why can’t automakers figure this out and actually give people what they want and not what they think we want. Sure there are some who want a small, practical EV hatchback for running around town, but most people wouldn’t touch one with a ten-foot pole because of limited range and sticker shock.

          • Robert Middleswarth

            Fast chargers are only as fast as the vehicle is able to accept. How long does a Tesla actual charge at that max rate? If you are above 50% power does it even hit that max charge rate? The fact is in all cases all fast charger tapper down so the high speed charging only really maters the closer the batteries are to being fully depleted. In-fact I doubt there would be much difference from Level 2 charging that last 20%.

          • Having owned and driven cars that used DCFC and Supercharging, I can say that SC is much more practical than DCFC. DCFC stations struggle to reach half the ‘range per minute’ that Superchargers are delivering today.

            Having said that, I do agree that DCFCs look good on paper but in reality, I found them to be severely lacking.

            Do you drive an EV using DCFC?

          • eveee

            30 minutes for 170 miles from about 90% discharge. Same slowdown happens with all chargers. That’s not a differentiation between them, the power in kW does differentiate them. Available CCS are 50kw or less. SC is 135kw. Big difference.
            Either battery pack or charger can limit charge rate. Bolt battery pack may have physical oerfotprmance limits. In the onboard controller settings or by the cell limitations. We don’t know for sure yet.

          • eveee

            You don’t need to charge the last 20% driving long distance. Unless you want a longer lunch. If you are at 80%, just drive. Go 170 miles, then do it again. This ain’t a big deal. Lots of Tesla owners do it all the time. There’s YouTube videos.

          • QKodiak

            Fast chargers are limited by their max output. CHAdeMO chargers put out up to 62.5kW work of power. The vast majority of CCS chargers top out between 50kW and 70kW. Tesla’s currently top out at 135kW and could be upgraded to 150kW this year. There is a huge difference between charging up with Superchargers vs CHAdeMO or CCS.

            You are right about the last 20%, but that’s why when traveling, you just do 20-30 min. 80% charges. Waiting 20-30 min. for that last 20% is totally unnecessary unless you really need it to make it to your destination.

    • eveee

      You can get some idea of what Chevy has in the pipeline by their moves. Volt tech moved into the Malibu as hybrid, not PHEV. They offered hybrid tech to,other car cos. That’s not an endorsement of EVs. IMO, all signs point to Bolt as a block to tesla 3 sales. It failed miserably. Back to drawing board for GM.

      • Robert Middleswarth

        I am not saying it is a good change just saying right now it is the only car company with products that could even be close to competing with Telsa.

        • eveee

          That’s correctomundo. It’s a shame
          But now there are plenty of companies announce NG their EV plans. And not short range EVs, either.

  • omar

    i expect them to release 200 miles i5 and they will say charging infrastructure is not there responsability its government

    • Brunel

      Toyota do not run petrol stations. Shell and BP do.

      The same needs to happen with EVs.

      The Aussie city I live in has 4 million people and only 1 Tesla supercharger.

      • omar

        I just want to mansion the importance of Charging infrastructure which lead Tesla to get 400000 orders.

      • Eric Lukac-Kuruc

        That city has likely more mains plugs in private garages than petrol stations. This is where most people could and will charge their EV.

        • Brunel

          On my block there are several luxury cars that are not garaged overnight. They are parked in the driveway or on the street.

          • Driveways are generally accessible for charging and there are many weatherproof stations that can be installed at the outer edge of the driveway and used for charging in the driveway or on the street…though curbside charging at home, overnight is likely going to be challenging. I did it for a few weeks and simply felt exposed on a number of levels with every configuration I could come up with.

            We’ll likely need government/regulatory support to move forward with practical curbside charging solutions for residential areas. The Netherlands has a great solution that Zach regularly talks about where they will install a curbside charger at the request of residents anywhere in the city.

          • Brunel

            The authorities do not put a WiFi antenna on every street so how can it be viable to put several metered plugs on every street.

            It is probably cheaper to have pay as you go supercharging stations along main roads.

            Most people do not drive 200 miles per day.

          • eveee

            Mixup here. Overnight charging doesn’t need SC. It’s unnecessary for slow charging overbite.The problem is access to residential charging without a garage. Since street parking is public, city is involved. Expect change. There are already solar new housing tracts. They could be charging building rules. Recall Palo Alto has them. Starting already.

          • Brunel

            Your writing is like morse code.

            I wonder if they meter the low power street outlets.

          • eveee

            You caught me. Single finger typing comes out that way. Glad you know morse. Good fallback when transmission gets garbled.

          • Here’s an article about the program in Amsterdam. Locals just need to put a request in to the local government and a new charger will be installed in ~2 months. http://cleantechnica.com/2015/07/08/amsterdam-ev-charging-how-it-works-original-videos/

          • eveee

            I will be right over to inspect them. That will entail driving all of them. At midnight.
            LOL. I don’t even leave a garden tool out at night.

      • eveee

        No. That’s for later. Right now, it’s too slow and the non SC chargers are too small. Few if any available CCS chargers can charge a 70kwhr battery in 30 minutes.
        When in doubt, assume straubel is smart. No way existing chargers are good enough.
        Tesla costs the cars with SC included.

        • Brunel

          A 300kW plug is just a matter of a thick cable plus pins and an automated lock.

          There are huge batteries in electric buses and trucks.

          And there is the motorcycle market – for which 300kW is too much.

          • eveee

            Not quite so easy. The mains jump up to 480V for commercial if memory serves, but then they go much higher. That one makes 135kw doable. Once you step up to 300kw it’s not as easy. And the utility will kill you with demand and peak charges.

            Bigger problem is that no one seems to be doing even 100kw CCS in any numbers. Tesla is right. In the beginning, fast chargers need to be lead by an EV company. Charger people don’t always get EVs. Down the line things may improve. For now, tesla is the only way to travel long distance in style.

          • eveee

            Forgot to ask 400k and one SC? Not so good. Now if you own the only tesla, you’re set. But if you mean 400k Teslas, then I know where all the model 3s went.

            I think Sc have about ten stations. Helps a little.

          • Brunel

            Sc?

          • eveee

            Supercharger in morse.

    • eveee

      Yep. A non starter in US. But EU has some CCS. Few are 100kw, tho. That means slow fast charging for a big battery.

    • Agreed. And with a price more similar to the Model S than the Model 3. But we’ll see.

  • newnodm

    1) There is no indication that CFRP is suitable for a high volume car.

    2) Rex is the crudest range extender available. It is one step better than strapping a Honda generator to the roof.

    3) Some of the i3 team quit.

    4) The i5 may be compromised as a multi-platform car: PHEV, Fuel Cell, and EV

    I expect Nissan and Mercedes to have more impact on EV than BMW. BMW looks to be more interested in being clever rather than concentrating on building an outstanding pure EV.

    • Mike333

      There’s no scaling problem with CRFP.

      The REX is the SMARTEST, Simplest, least expensive solution for a range extender. Have you looked at the complexity of the Volt. ( The Volt is a Great Car, but it’s a 2+2 ).

      The i5 is going to demonstrate “efficiency” as it’s first principle. Tesla will be challenged to beat it’s efficiency. The i5 may not be tuned for max performance. You can’t have both.

      • QKodiak

        The BMW i3 is actually a 2+2 that is UGLY unlike the Chevy Volt which is classy. The i3’s interior is amazing though, one of the best in the industry. I really, really wish they hadn’t put that interior in such an odd, strange little box of a car.

        The fact that the Chevy Volt is complex is irrelevant since it has proven to be extremely reliable. It is also not a 2+2 but rather a 4-door hatchback with 4+1 seating. There’s room in the back seat for two normal sized people and maybe a child or baby seat on the padded hump in the middle. This is perfectly normal for many cars today. The back seats are not sized for 6’8″ petrol-swilling auto journalists though.

        The difference between 100 and 110 MPGe is basically negligible. A Tesla with awesome performance, handling, technology, and great looks will also be extremely efficient. If it’s an EV, it’s efficient.

        As far as REx EVs are concerned, I can’t wait for the first EV that can use a small, extremely energy dense, hot-swappable aluminum or lithium air battery as a pollution, noise, and maintenance-free range extender.

        Long range EVs coupled with a fast charging network like the Superchargers basically mitigate any need for a range extender. Just talk to any Tesla owner.

        • eveee

          The complexity matters, at over 30k for a PHEV. Puts it right up against the three. Hard to lower cost. Battery cost improvements help EVs more than PHEVs.

      • You can have both if you get a Tesla. In fact, most EVs have the power ready and waiting if needed though normal ever day driving is efficient. BMW i3 is the same.

      • eveee

        The new Volt is a 2 + 3 officially, by EPA, seat belts and all. But only if you can stand the floor hump. 🙂

  • Pedro

    The BMW i3 with 180miles with a price tag of 40k$? Who will buy this after the release of Tesla Model 3? The BMW i5 that you mention sounds like a great fighter against the loaded Tesla Model 3 with a price tag around 50k$

    • John Moore

      As it stands now, BMW will lose half of their market share in the ICE 3 series. The Tesla 3 is going to murder them. It will be a bloodbath. The Tesla will be cheaper, faster, cooler, better handling, cheaper to own, more responsible.
      BMW stock is already starting to reflect this impending disaster. From $110 down to $75 in the last 12 months.
      If you are in BMW stock, sell it.

    • Mike333

      The i3 is a great city/country car, esp. if you plan to go solar.
      The Tesla 3 will be better on the highway but less efficient.
      If 90% of your driving is on city/country roads the i3 will be just more fun.

      • The BMW i3 has poor aerodynamics and as such would have lower range than Tesla 3 in similar highway conditions. Given that the Tesla 3 will have optional all wheel drive and dual motors, the performance will far exceed the i3, and therefore so will the fun factor.

        • Mike333

          You 100% right about highway driving.
          And, 4 wheel drive is a great advantage in the northern states.

          Now, in the northeast, where we’re overpopulated, the speed “advantage” is something you’ll never use, except on highway and highway on ramps. Maybe rural buyers can use that power.

          In the NorthEast, bringing Tesla Power here is like bringing a sledge hammer to a wall hanging event.

          The i3 is Tuned for 35-55 mph country road driving. It’s the perfect tool for the job. Additional power, wheelbase and size are just wasted curving up country roads. So, it’s what you want the car for.

        • Mike333

          It’s the same problem with the Corvette,Camaro, Mustang vs. a Mazda Miata.

          Country Roads: Miata wins in fun factor, as it’s tuned for the job.

          Watkins Glen – Track Time?: Corvette, etc.

          • Yes, but a Miata is much cheaper than Corvette, Camaro, or Mustang convertibles. The i3 will have to be much cheaper than the Model 3 to compete with it in a significant manner. There will be a handful of people that find some odd reason why they feel the i3 is better in their particular case.

      • Bryan

        Your comparison assumes all buyers purchase cars base on utility alone. The i3 is designed like the Pryus while the Model 3 is designed like the 3 series or A4 which makes it a mass market designed car. With the range being 200+ miles vs the 80+ miles of the i3 the mileage is also mass market. If the i3 was what the mass market wanted it would cannibalize the 3 series. Much like the model S target is the high end luxury sedan the model 3 target is the entry level luxury sedan so buyers will migrate from the 3 series, A4 and like not the i3. Those that want the i3 type of car would have already migrated from the 3 series, A4 and the like.

        • Mike333

          I’ve driven a Prius. The i3 is no Prius, in a good way.
          The Prius is dog slow, unless you put it in “Sport” mode, and that’s a slow normal.

          People who test drive cars buy the i3.
          It is a super-mini sized vehicle. I think that’s the only thing slowing uptake for most people. And the fact you have to get a Level 2 charger in your garage.

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