Chevy Bolt Sales Could Reach 30,000–80,000 During First Year, Says Kelly Blue Book Analyst

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Originally published on EV Obsession.

How high will Chevy Bolt sales numbers go during the first year of being offered? Is 30,000 a reasonable guess? Or is that low-balling or high-balling it?

How much of an effect will the recent unveiling of the Tesla Model 3 have on sales? Will those previously interested in the Chevy Bolt now choose to wait for the Model 3?

chevy_bolt_mules
Chevy Bolts by Kyle Field for CleanTechnica | EV Obsession

It’s a bit hard at this point to gauge what the answers to these questions might be. Though, I suppose that we’ll know soon enough, as the Chevy Bolt should begin hitting the market less than a year from now. On that note, a senior analyst at Kelley Blue Book by the name of Karl Brauer recently estimated a first-year sales volume of 30,000–80,000 for the Chevy Bolt — meaning that his expectation is that 30,000 is the expected floor for first-year sales.

Brauer commented: “Tesla has made a lot of noise and created passion. But Chevy and GM will crack the real-world electric vehicle first. Theirs will be available not just months, but years, before Tesla’s.” (Author’s note: A single year, or year-and-a-half, head start seems most likely.)

Barron’s provides more:

Bolts may start trickling into dealerships in late 2016, although GM CEO Mary Barra recently told Barron’s that they won’t be widely available until early 2017. The Bolt will list for $37,500, before federal tax credits worth $7,500.

…Given Tesla’s history, Brauer thinks the first big batch of Model 3 shipments could slip into 2018 or later. As those buyers wait, he says, Chevy could easily capture 10% of the Model 3 preorder base. He forecasts first-year Bolt sales of between 30,000 and 80,000, “and the low end of that is still a win for Chevrolet.”

My personal guess for the beginning of mass Tesla Model 3 deliveries is early to mid 2018 — I remain skeptical that the company will be unable to meet that rough deadline as some have implied.

That still leaves a fairly long period when the Chevy Bolt will be the only 200+ mile electric car out there in the relevant pricing bracket, though. Despite that, I’m not quite sure that I see Bolt sales climbing over 50,000 in the first year…. 80,000 would be great, and really show that interest in electric vehicles (EVs) is growing rapidly, but I’m not sure that I find it that believable.

Hat tip to “don shaw” on the GM-Volt forum for this.

Reprinted with permission.


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James Ayre

James Ayre's background is predominantly in geopolitics and history, but he has an obsessive interest in pretty much everything. After an early life spent in the Imperial Free City of Dortmund, James followed the river Ruhr to Cofbuokheim, where he attended the University of Astnide. And where he also briefly considered entering the coal mining business. He currently writes for a living, on a broad variety of subjects, ranging from science, to politics, to military history, to renewable energy.

James Ayre has 4830 posts and counting. See all posts by James Ayre

115 thoughts on “Chevy Bolt Sales Could Reach 30,000–80,000 During First Year, Says Kelly Blue Book Analyst

    • They have $1000 refundable deposits which could get canceled when people realize they may not get the tax breaks.

    • “TESLA” has a quantum leap in production to navigate–and Tesla production processes have had their issues in the past. Will they pull it off? Quite possibly, but it ain’t a done deal yet.

  • And not a single mention of LG Chem or Battery/Drive Train supplier.

    Problem with these “analysts”… is that they have no idea about predicting EVs. They reason by past analogy, not first principles (as Elon puts it).

    If it were just another Chevy gasoline car… sure. But predictions based on such assumptions have more change of being wrong than right.

    • Yup. The quote below made me realize just how far off base they are. EVs are not just about being first to market but about revolutionizing the driving experience. With an attitude like that, these analysts deserve to eat their words in 2 years when Tesla is worth more than GM.
      “Tesla has made a lot of noise and created passion. But Chevy and GM will crack the real-world electric vehicle first. Theirs will be available not just months, but years, before Tesla’s.”

      • Yep. Kind of one sided to claim Tesla can’t do volume because of suppliers and ignore the issue for Bolt.
        KBB made a large error exaggerating the volume dates. It’s a 1 year difference not 2.

  • Even at 30,000 vehicles sold in US this would be one of the highest selling EV model in the US to date. If it gets up to the 50,000 it would likely strain Chevy to keep up with production. Not sure Chevy could get 80,000 out the door in the 2017 model year. If they did it would be with long wait times.

    Of course if it reaches 80,000 sold it would be a sign EV’s not just Tesla are ready for prime time. Just have to get the range up high enough.

    • GM, just like Tesla, have the same problem of repairing or maintaining the Spark EV, Chevy Volt and the upcoming Chevy Bolt. It is taking a long time for their technicians to repair these vehicles. This is a typical new car technology problem when there is not much experience in dealing with these newly released cars yet. So expect longer time to get the job done.

      Seriously, the same scenario is playing with Tesla right now, it is not just being openly admitted by Tesla fans but it is real. What the fans aren’t telling you about the expensive Tesla cars for now is that the Service centers are backlogged, and spares are an issue. How much more when they finished shipping the reserved 400,000 Model 3 and flood the service centers with service backlogs years long! Will the supercharging stations handle the insane quantity produced, will there be enough electric power available at peak recharging times? Not to mention that the current insurance rate is brutal, twice that of some other luxury cars in the $100k+ price range.

      But of course, Tesla has figured it out already like GM is retraining a lot of the dealer’s technician in handling the new technology as demand rises. Meanwhile, for a long while, either Tesla or GM, the repair time would be longer than your usual car. But one should not conclude that Tesla or GM’s EV division are not ready for prime time in the EV revolution, this is just part of growing pains that must be dealt with.

      • “the same scenario is playing with Tesla right now, it is not just being openly admitted by Tesla fans but it is real. ”

        And where is that data found?

      • I wasn’t even talking about Telsa but that is a good question. EV if done right don’t need a lot of repair work. No oil changes, or other basic maintenance. Telsa has had a lot of issues with parts and defects in their builds that they have been fixing. Since I haven’t owned a spark EV or a Telsa I have no idea on there repair requirements. Telsa has been working hard on improving quality. Chevy Volt has shown to be very well built. Not sure about the Spark EV as there are so few out there I haven’t seen any article on them requiring allot of repairs. Only time will tell if the Bolt will require allot of repair work.

        • At this point ICE vehicles don’t require a lot of maintenance either. Outside of oils changes most ICE and EV’s have about the same maintenance for at least 100k miles. I will give EV’s the much longer brake life.
          As for as the Bolt if it has the reliability of the Volt then the Bolt will be one of the best cars built.

        • Right. And the good news (for EV fans) is that the Tesla Model 3 is following a “design for manufacturing” approach, unlike the S & X.

      • Elon tweeted a while ago that there are longer wait times right now because of the Model X recall. That should get better shortly. But I agree that they need to expand their service centers soon, otherwise they might not be able to handle demand.

        • Tasla announced plans is to double the number of Telsa services centers in 2016. Even if some get delayed if they actually doable by the end of 2017 it would greatly limit wait times.

        • Compared to the wait time for replacement of the recalled Takata airbags?

          • No the backseat issue.

          • Elon has stated 5 weeks for the rear seat recall. It took longer than that for the recall of the rear suspension on my RAV4, and all they did was apply stickers to the control arms!

      • Agreed, except that these concerns are widely discussed among Tesla enthusiasts.

    • If the waiting time gets long they might have to take reservations. Lol.
      But then they would be like tesla

  • The Volt looks to be on track for about 20K U.S. deliveries this year, so, hard to tell, but perhaps we can expect similar numbers for the Bolt? So, world-wide, their prediction range might be reasonable.

    • I think the Bolt EV will do better than the Volt. The Volt is for people that understand what it is and how it differs from other hybrids or other plugin hybrids. The Bolt EV on the other hand is easy to understand and will be the only vehicle in it’s price range and ability for at least a year.

    • Hard to say, but seems reasonable. The Holland, MI battery plant was undercapacity because Volt battery demand was lower than expected. New Volt has more demand and Bolt requires 3x batteries than Volt. Don’t think that plant could supply both if Bolt goes to 80k units, but other LG factory could. Wildcard is battery volume to Nissan, MB or other cos.

  • Well a side question is in first year how many is GM planning to make. How much has LG scaled for production of the battery packs? So I not questioning demand (not sure what it will be) but assume that got 400k order the first month. How many could they make the first year. Has LG release it’s planned production? If GM has planned to made 12k the first year, it is unlikely to get to 120k.

    • GM has announced they are prepared to build 30K+ and that they can scale up if demand warrants. However, great deal of their volume will depend on whether or not they can get the dealers behind the product.

      • I think initially it wont matter if the dealers are behind the product because people will be looking to their local dealer to order one. Long term you’re correct.

        • I’m not so sure. How can this be illustrated – picture this; if I work in forecasting for GM and I think that for a revolutionary product that is a quantum leap forward, and we’ll have a volume of at least 45,000 or so in the first year. So we’ll announce a conservative 30,000. And I have evidence that it can be higher, but so far only a few hundred people have decided the pain of working with a dealer to get on a list is worth it.

          Contrast that with the introduction of Tesla’s 3.

          • GM also hasn’t be advising there is a waiting list and waiting list are based on the dealers many have reported dealer don’t have release info yet and aren’t open for a waiting list at all.

  • There’s a lot of wiggle room in 30-80 thousand cars. The US is the top Leaf market and its best year was 2014 at 30,200 cars but 2015 dropped almost by half.
    Incentives have proven they work and governments worldwide need to prove their sincerity with taking more aggressive measures regarding global warming.
    We wasted over $4 Trillion on Iraq and Afghanistan so why not “waste” another $1 Trillion on $10,000 rebates for all non-polluting vehicles?

    • Realizing that Bin Laden was able to train and launch teams that could strike anywhere in the world without resistance from there – I’m not so sure the Afghanistan dollars were wasted.

      • Had Bush not pulled US forces out of Afghanistan to invade Iraq our guys would have probably caught bin Laden and his crew. That part of the spending would not have been wasted.

        • “…our guys” did catch Bin Laden.

          I’ll let history decide on Iraq. Though IMO at first blush it seems like a poorly run, trillion dollar distraction, where a great deal of people paid with their lives.

          • Common opinion is that we were very close to catching bin Laden in the Afghan mountains before he made it to Pakistan. That would have been years earlier than when we did finally get him.

            The Iraq invasion was pure, unnecessary bull and resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths. In fact, there was no need to invade. Saddam agreed to leave but Bush told him it was too late and sent in the troops a couple days later.

            The mess that is now the Middle East is a result of our invasion of Iraq.

  • It depends on WHEN Chevy counts the car as sold. Is it “sold” when they foist it off on the dealer, or when the dealer sells it to the customer?

    If it’s the latter, prior experience with electric cars indicates the dealers won’t try very hard to sell them. Service and repairs are where dealerships make their most money, and electrics don’t have much of that.

    • Dealers! Yes, that!

    • So maybe this means Chevy, et al. have a year to figure out what they’re really selling when they sell EVs, then increasingly autonomous EVs. They do have the physical footprint in nearly every county of the US — far ahead of Tesla there. They will probably have serious (Broadcast media) nationwide advertising before Tesla bothers.

      On the other hand, Tesla is probably more likely to figure out they aren’t losing the opportunity to sell repair jobs — just as Apple came up with the next stage of mobile computing after the laptop by designing the iPhone, now Tesla is bringing the next platform for mobile computing/media/telecom. Someone will have to figure out what the real “user experience” (or I suppose, in auto talk, the sizzle) is that’s being sold with this mobile device with wheels. If you don’t have to drive, what does that leave time to do instead? In many ways, it really could be an extension of the household, workplace, and so on.

      Not all of this will be possible right from the start — it will take some time to evolve through all the usual platforms/ body styles. And maybe develop some new body styles. Getting rid of the engine has already spawned the frunk. If some cars won’t need the usual cockpit for the driver, what else can happen with the interior? Can the interior be ready for major modifications depending upon the activity, from trip to trip? Especially when you have so many kWh and probably bandwidth available too, not just flexible space? It won’t be just one of these advances that matters, but the combination of them in multiple physical sizes and platforms that can then be customized for the situation. Early flip-phones were nice, until you got a smartphone. Now smartphones/ tablets/ laptops (at the least) provide a basic platform that you make your own via the apps and content. Do you necessarily want a complete package pre-designed and installed before you drive off the lot? Or do you want to “download your own apps” later?

      OK, the more I ramble it sounds like auto-parts and big box stores may capture more of these after-market sales than the dealers. So maybe the dealers really are screwed, at least for some segments of the market.

  • Early adopters bought 80 miles or less cars because the saw the need. Almost everyone else has to be convinced that there car is as near to an ICE vehicle as possible. By that I mean you can wake up get into it and make a trip to the beach or to the desert or to the Big Bear without milage anxiety. My 2011 Chrysler 300 5.7 Hemi with a half of a tank can make them all without having to stop for gas. With a full tank I can make it to Las Vegas and then get over 100 miles back that’s with AC or Heat and Radio lights for night driving gps and all of the hills and grades. I can turn everything on. I have not driven one nore do I know someone who owns a Tesla but I don’t think it can to some of those trips. Even if it can they will be anxious!! If I was careful I could almost make it from Hemet to San Jose a little over 400 miles not quite but almost. Not only that when I needed a refill it stations would be almost on every corner of every overpass. The best thing is I would not have to belong to a club and pay $15 to $20 dollars a month for the privilege to pull in then plus from what I read from $6 to $10 an hour for a 1/4 battery fill up ! Tesla aside even in the bolt you would you have to stop 3 4 or 5 times plus how many hours if you don’t have Q.C. also remember you don’t want to go below 20% or charge above 80% if you do how long from 80% to 100%. These are things that need to be overcome at least until the next generation turns 16 as they may not have seen the need for these things.

    Here’s the problem I have I live in Hemet my medical center is in Riverside it is exactly 40 miles door to door 80 miles round trip now there are several grades and one steep hill I would say 6% grade 4 miles I don’t think 84 Miles of EPA testing will make it plus over half would be generally non stop driving. Not 1 charging station along the way but 10 gas stations. 300 miles for most people who are not tree huggers “I use the term lovingly” is kind of a minimum so you can wake up and say on the spear of the moment I want to go to the beach without worry!

    Please believe me I want one I would love one but at nearly 70 I need security more than even a 100 mile car can give.

    • So much garbage in your post that it would not make sense to respond to specifics. If you really think your “Hemi” is the way to go, then God bless you. I’m sure you are right.
      Now go take your nap. The Golden Girls is on in a couple of hours, then the meals on wheels people will be there. Stay cool, and burn some rubber for me with your 5.7 litre next time you head to the Walgreens.

      • No need to be snarky.

        • Maybe not, but I can understand the temptation. And I’m not all that much younger than ‘hank.’

          • Where am I wrong what is not true in what I said?

          • Do you really think that bragging about your gas consumption is going to go over well on a site where people are highly concerned about climate change? Most of us here–I think, anyway, I’m speaking for myself here–think your behavior is quite irresponsible and reprehensible. You tout the convenience you enjoy, but spare not one thought, apparently, for the future from which you are stealing.

          • Is stating the facts as they are now bragging or is it just pointing out why quite a few people may not be comfortable with that big of change. There are reasons why someone may have a different opinion or reason? I am sorry but if you go back in most posts I start of by saying I want a EV at the start of the conversation! My first post here I started it by saying to get most people “NOT ME” to feel safe EVs will need a range nearing an ICE vehicle. I only need 175 miles and I mean actual miles! 10,000 people a day retire and have had about 50 years of experiencing the feeling of being secure when they get into a car day or night. Not only knowing they can get to almost anywhere they want and not only have gas station’s on almost every corner but if they break down they also have a mechanic in each of them not all but most. What happens when you break down in a EV when it is after 5 PM and most of the time before. From what I have read most dealers don’t want to touch them not confidence building! Some dealers even discourage buying them. Not to mention the days weeks or months waiting to get it back!!!
            Even with all that I would love a Tesla Leaf focus even a 500e if I could afford one. I know to get a charge is easier now but in most cases you need to join a company’s club and pay from $5.00 to $15.00 or maybe more a month even if you don’t use it as I have not searched all companies who have this service. Also you need to do a lot of research when making a trip to find where you can charge. Then if you get there and it is down, then is there a charger across the street or near now what do you do? I know some give you free charging for a limited amount of time. Tesla charging $2000 and now complaining if you use it to much!
            Now all that said in a few years, I don’t know how many there will be or how they may be charging for it then. It may well be different but I am living today I may not be in 5 to 10 years.
            In closing I thought this was a place to discuss both the good and bad of EVs? Isn’t it a good idea to know what it can or can’t do! Shouldn’t a person who has an interest know what they are getting into? Do you want to be the first person to go up in the first launch of the SpaceX flight into space? I would be sure you would appreciate someone pointing out the problems with being in that position.

          • “My 2011 Chrysler 300 5.7 Hemi with a half of a tank can make them all
            without having to stop for gas. With a full tank I can make it to Las
            Vegas and then get over 100 miles back that’s with AC or Heat and Radio
            lights for night driving gps and all of the hills and grades. I can turn
            everything on…”

            “…Not only that when I needed a refill it stations would be almost on every corner of every overpass…”

            Pardon me if you meant that in a matter of fact way. But when I hear somebody talk about driving a 5.7 and how great it is to go anywhere, any time ‘with everything turned on’, it sounds a mite–self-absorbed.

            It’s also a little unclear to me why you are worrying about the trip to your medical service providers. If you won’t buy a car that can’t take you to the beach and back at the drop of a hat, why would you even think about whether one could do the shorter (albeit more frequent) trip? And since this story is about a 200-mile range car, how is this particular worry really relevant here?

            The reason I mention this is that it’s a specific example of how many of your complaints/anxieties don’t quite connect into a logical picture. Much of the substance of your comments reads like a laundry list of potential range anxieties–in effect, a kind of Gish gallop of anti-EV propaganda.

            Another example would be the matter of costs for vehicle charging. You go on about club memberships and inconveniences at great length, but ignore the salient facts, which are that 1) most people recharge at home the vast majority of the time, and 2) for Tesla owners, charging is included in the purchase price.

            It’s hard for me to to see how such an undigested mass of worries and half-truths could contribute toward an “interested person” knowing “what they are getting into.”

        • Sorry, sometimes I just can’t help it. In my defense, I do it with the intent to entertain, though obviously not so much for the person I was replying to.

      • I did not say it was the way to go just comparing what it can do as compared to what most of us can afford in a EV. Two whole charging stations HUMM!! You maybe should read it again. You know when someone has nothing to say to expand on the story when all they can do is belittle others. All I did is say some and probably half since 40 miles is a average drive. Maybe you should wait until you are old enough to drive?

        • Hank, assuming 1946 is your birth year let me just say I’m older than you. But I won’t hold that against you.

          Yes, there are not EV choices for all of us right now. There’s not one for me. But what is available and will soon be available will fit a lot of people. Something like 85% of all driving days are under 37 miles (IIRC). Probably 95%+ of all driving days are within the range of a 100 mile EV. Certainly within the range of the upcoming 200+ mile EVs from GM and Tesla.

          And with rapid charging one can drive from the Atlantic to the Pacific and spend only a couple hours longer than someone driving an ICEV. That’s two hours for the entire 3,000 mile trip. (Do we need to get into the very large fuel savings?)

          Now, affordability. Do you consider the entry level (no frills) Toyota Camry affordable? The MSRP is $23,070.

          The Tesla Mod 3 (215 or more mile range) is expected to cost $35,000. After the $7,500 federal subsidy it’s $27,500.

          Buy a new Camry or a Mod 3. Finance fully at 4.5% for six years. Buy gas for the Camry or electricity for the Tesla. ($3/gallon, $0.12/kWh, 13,000 annual miles)

          The monthly ‘out of pocket’ costs – car payment + gas/electricity will be the same. Actually the Tesla will be cheaper if you take a few long trips and charge for free at Superchargers.

          • The Nissan Leaf MSRP it $29,010 Isn’t that the s which is still 84 miles. also about $3000 for tax and licence so $32,000 if the dealer has not added upgrades which I have never seen one who hasn’t. I am not arguing if you fit into that narrow class of people they are not fine. A used one would fill most of my needs but I would be limited and not able to go where or when I want unless I have a second ICE vehicle. So with the examples you use and the cost of the second car now which is most cost effective? Somehow some of the contributors here have the idea I don’t want a EV or are against them that can’t be farther from the truth can’t someone see the benefits of both. But base to base model is not how you need to compare them when you make it that they cost the same you see the amount of features you get above a EV. That is something to consider as added value that you can’t measure in your equation. Other than Tesla you can’t as of now get all the features you can get in an ICE vehicle most don’t have power seats Tech features are very slim. Also how good are the ones they have I don’t know as I don’t have one. I get haranguing because of having a 2011 Chrysler 300C 5.7 Hemi which I bought new can you tell me how many EVs were for sale then and how many years were they on the market? Should I have taken a chance with my family with a tech that has not been proven and still is not really been proven as Tesla warranty costs are over $2000 when Ice vehicles are about $800. This is not a 2+2 equals 4 problem I don’t see why people can’t see that different people want or need different things. I would sure like to know what I said that is wrong.

          • Did you read what I posted, Hank? Did you read these two sentences?

            “Yes, there are not EV choices for all of us right now. There’s not one for me. ”

            There isn’t an EV option right now for you. There wasn’t when you bought your $40,000+ Chrysler 300 either.

            But in a couple of years you should be able to buy a Tesla Mod 3 for 70% what you paid for the Chrysler.

            You’d be able to drive from Hemet to San Jose with one charging stop. And eat your lunch while your car charged.

            Round trip that’s about 800 miles. At 25 MPG highway for your 300 you’d burn through 32 gallons of gas. At $3/gallon that’s about $100 that you wouldn’t have to buy if you were driving a Tesla, you could charge up for free. That would cover a couple of nice lunches while you charged. (And they say there’s no free lunch. ;o)

          • Hi
            I will try to answer you as others seem to think insults and belittling others is reasonable! First cost of driving with me has never been the problem! Free Charge or even $5.00 gas. I’ve been told how charging is free that may very well be true for some and on some drives or even most. I was looking for charging stations near me and the needed a 12 month contract and $6 to $10 for 1 hour which a Leaf can only charge 1/4 of it’s battery. But like you there are no vehicles that work for me. All but Tesla has range but price is too much the others might start at $29,000 but add QC and anything else you want it hits $40,000 pretty quick. Now I will explain why I have a 2011 300 but is not something I should not have to do but my wife and I were at a stop light and we were rear ended by someone doing about 60 miles per hour and my wife was hurt a Black Eye bruised arms and knees and I could walk away. As a matter of fact we were the only ones of the 8 or 9 people involved that did not go to the hospital. At the time we had a 2008 Base 300. Looking at the damage to the rear end seeing it was totaled and if my Grand daughter had been in the back seat she also would have walked away. The back window was disengaged from the window holding mechanism but not smashed into the back seat. So seeing how well the car did and I had no frame of reference I only felt safe buying another 300 as my grand daughter rides with us all the time. That accident was the only reason that we could afford that car. Now I have heard that the 70 odd thousand dollar Tesla Is supposed to be as safe but I can’t afford one so better the enemy you know than the one you don’t know! back to EVs what happens when you go on a trip where the free charging is not available maybe late hours dealers not open or charging facility is broken or there are idiots who have parked in the spots for charging. On my theoretical drive to las Vegas with only 2 charging stations you could be up a creek without a paddle. As you noted my car has an EPA rating of I believe 25 miles fuel tank of 18.5 and I can top it off to about 21 I know you are not supposed to do that but when taking that long of a trip I don’t care. That gives me a theoretical 525 miles. Other people talk like Tesla can get up to 300 miles I don’t think they can on either the trip to Las Vegas or San Jose I doubt it with the grades you have to climb and you don’t gain it back on the return. Rated 300 miles but not to go below 20% charge or charge to 100% only 80% now that makes 300 mile car only go 180 miles not accounting for ac loss or temperature loss or Heating loss if needed now paying attention to the dynamics of it you are probably at 150 miles. Bob your talking in a couple years. My replies have always been what can I do now and what a lot of people need now not in several years. I read all over here and other news outlets that the model 3 could be more than a couple years away as much as 2020. Even if they are not it will not be the $35,000 cars being sold first and the way it looks not until 2019 or 2020. and I am behind 400,000 cars even if I could afford one. You really think I will be able to buy a Model 3 for $28,000. 70% of 40,000? There is no free charge as I believe it cost $2000.00 to get it with Tesla. Even now they are complaining about people using it to much? Ya I know they abuse it but were they told it was a cross country purchase when they started before they signed the contract. Is chevy going to offer free charge on the Bolt I have not seen it.

          • Sorry will not bother you again. Just tired and not paying attention!

          • In estimating the cost of the Leaf, you forgot to add the cost of washing the Leaf, and paying the kid next door to shovel the snow from your driveway.

      • What garbage tell me where I am wrong. Also I guess it is wrong to point out the deficiencies in most EVs. Please let me know where I can get a BOLT. I have not been able to find one. I guess it is my age? 107 miles for the leaf at nearly $40,000 for how many years will it be viable before it is down to 80 or needing a new battery. I have looked for used cars and see new battery installed 2011 and newer cars every time I look on Autotrader.com. I am not a ICE fan as you seem to allude to but how many new engines do you see in the want ads in newer cars. Also there are a lot of people who can’t afford a $35 or $40,000 plus tax car’s which I am one. Also I don’t get the federal tax credit that you probably don’t need and will take!!!
        EVs are infants as far as the auto industry is concerned. Here’s the only point I have ever wanted to make and it is “it is better to have it and not need it than not have it and need it” Please think before you post as the written word on the page is not always the way you would take it in person when spoken by the person you wish to defame!

        • The Bolt is not yet at the dealers. Later this year.

          The Nissan Leaf MSRP it $29,010. The batteries seem to holding up very well. There was a problem with their batteries in very hot conditions but that was cleared a long time ago.

        • My post was a bit nasty, but you seem not to know what you are talking about.
          1. You say “I have not driven one nore do I know someone who owns a Tesla but I don’t think it can to some of those trips.” Huh? The Tesla S and X go 300 miles. You seem utterly unaware of this.
          2. You say “I would not have to belong to a club and pay $15 to $20 dollars a month for the privilege to pull in then plus from what I read from $6 to $10 an hour for a 1/4 battery fill up ! ” Huh? The superchargers are free to Tesla owners, so you are wrong three times in one statement. The Leaf Level III chargers are free in most places, though this may change at some point in the future. And it doesn’t cost ” $6 to $10 an hour for a 1/4 battery fill up ! ” What does that even mean? That it takes 4 hours and $24 to $40 to fill all the way up????? You look like you’re intentionally misstating cost here, but I fear that you are just confused.
          3. The Leaf is not $40,000. Surely you must know this.
          4. With an electric car, you don’t need a gas station on every corner. You charge them at home, at night. Only on trips do you use the supercharger, of which there are plenty enough to recharge when needed.
          5. You say “Tesla aside even in the bolt you would you have to stop 3 4 or 5 times.” This is false because the Bolt gets 200 miles a charge. You seem senile here.
          There’s a few more, but you get the idea. And I don’t want to “defame” you. You just said some wacky stuff. And no, I won’t get off your lawn.

          • 1. Where do they get 300 miles on a flat track with no hills and not going over 50 miles a hour no AC or Heat lights not on by the way can they do it at night. Not unaware just not the biggest believer in EPA ratings and does 300 miles take into account not going below 20% state of charge and not charging to 100% to protect the batteries? Has anyone driven 265 miles in a tesla and made it to Las Vegas without a charge if you did how secure did you feel the last 50 miles or so did you stay within the guidelines for using your batteries? I read about a Tesla going 553 miles without a charge but do you want to go 22 miles a hour for near 25 hours with windows down because of heat seems a bit extreme I think even for you.

            2. Where I live in Riverside county were not flush in chargers. Where i would go in my trips the stations have 12 month contracts for $15 a month or more then it is $6 to$10 for 1 hour and in a leaf without QC that is 6.6 KWH or about a 1/4 of the battery. So that is not miss stating either!

            3. Palm Springs Nissan 2016 Nissan LEAF S

            Stock # 10105, MOTOR, Automatic 1-Speed, 9 mi., 126/101 MPG

            MSRP $32,000
            ——————————————————–
            2016 Nissan LEAF SL

            Stock # 10066, Automatic, 9 mi., 124/101 MPG

            MSRP $39,580
            With the s you need to add things 24 KWH battery Need to add QC not sure what that cost then about 10% for tax and license. I don’t know about you but I have to figure that in so if not $40,000 it is darn close.
            So maybe not 40 but I would not nitpick over the difference.

            4 Not on every corner but enough to not have to stop until you want to so they would have to be quite regular on the trip map. You keep forgetting electric cars should not go below 20% of charge and not regularly over 80% with that you have lost 40% of your charge Not to mention the severe climbs from Hemet and hot weather through the valley most of the year how much do you lose on top of the 40%. I think you better stop drinking anymore of the coolaid.

            5. Again senile is in the eyes of the beholder if you think that the bolt is going to make the trip from Hemet to San Jose with less than 3 charges you might want to check into Belview.

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        • “Please let me know where I can get a BOLT. I have not been able to find one.”
          GM has not yet started deliverys to the dealer and GM is not yet taking any order or selling them.

          “107 miles for the leaf at nearly $40,000”
          The current version of the leaf starts at $28,000. Used leafs cost a lot less.

          “also remember you don’t want to go below 20% or charge above 80%”
          The cars computer monitors battery charge and it takes the necessary steps to insure you don’t overcharge or over discharge the battery. All electric cars today have this. have this.

          “I have looked for used cars and see new battery installed 2011 and newer cars every time I look on Autotrader.com.”

          Prior to 2010 only one company was selling electric cars, Tesla. Most EV;s on the road today were made after 2011 and most of those still have there original batteries. The reason you don’t see EVs with older batteries is because no one was making them.

    • How much more security do you need? The 2016 Leaf goes 107 miles per charge, the Bolt will have 200. You should be able to get to your doctor in Riverside in a Bolt with no range anxiety. (Any change your doctor or the site of his office would install a charger so you could recharge during your visit?) How many times do you make the trip to Vegas? According to Google Maps, Hemet, CA to Las Vegas, NV is 265 miles and takes ~4 hrs to get there. According to Tesla, there is a supercharger in Barstow and another in Primm, NV just across the CA border. Since you would probably need a bathroom break on that trip anyway, you could stop at the supercharger in Barstow, go to the restroom, grab a bite and be back out to your freely charged car in 30 min. Yes, the Bolt would be a problem with it’s lack of super fast DC charging, but we’re ever hopeful that GM or someone else with vision, will build out a DCFC network. Or you could wait for the Model 3. Similar price and access to the free supercharger network.

      • What people will do is not now and all I can do is relate to what is now. This next part is a cut and past so not all intended for you. “Also I guess it is wrong to point out the deficiencies in most EVs. Please let me know where I can get a BOLT. I have not been able to find one. I guess it is my age? 107 miles for the leaf at nearly $40,000 for how many years will it be viable before it is down to 80 or needing a new battery. I have looked for used cars and see new battery installed 2011 and newer cars every time I look on Autotrader.com. I am not a ICE fan as you seem to allude to but how many new engines do you see in the want ads in newer cars. Also there are a lot of people who can’t afford a $35 or $40,000 plus tax car’s which I am one. Also I don’t get the federal tax credit that you probably don’t need and will take!!!”

        • You can get a Bolt at the GM dealership in November. I talked to a GM rep at Earth Day and she confirmed October, not September. The 2016 Nissan Leaf SL is $37,000 on Nissan’s website. (The QC option is $1700 on the S, but is standard on the SL and SV). As Bob has already mentioned, the battery degredation problem has already been solved and does not appear to be an issue any longer. I have been looking at used 2013 Leaf’s myself (try cargurus.com) and have not seen any battery degradation on the models I have looked at. My problem is that very few have the QC option.

          I don’t think you’re necessarily an ICE fan, and I can see where you’re coming from on range – as all EV enthusiasts do. We’re just trying to inform, not condemn.

          I don’t get the Federal credit either due to my income and I live it a state that doesn’t have the state rebate either.

  • So I buy a Bolt and drive it 200 miles towards Spokane from Portland. Then what do I need to do to get the last 120 miles? Sit 2 1/2 hours at a CCS 240V station? TESLA is more than just a long distance EV. All sounds great until you are left holding a very limp short cord with “Chevy Bolt” embossed on the plug end. ? Analyze that Mr. Brauer.

    • GM has said 90 miles per half hour of charging. So, 40 mins of waiting around (or closer to 50-60 if you want to be safe on range, I guess).

      Nonetheless, this is one thing that could really stymie sales. The new Leaf’s miles/min charge rate is about the same, so the Bolt’s “road trip value” is only slightly better than for the Leaf (because it cuts out some of the stopping overhead). With SC access, the Model 3 would be double the miles/min rate of both, giving it significantly more road trip value.

      • One journalist had a Volt and a Tesla, most miles went on the Volt. People could buy a Volt 2 and a Bolt.

        • Haven’t seen that story, but have seen several other stories where it was the reverse.

      • How do you see it as slightly better when you could drive an additional 100 miles in the Bolt without needing to charge at all. So I could drive from Columbus to Cleveland, OH and still have over 50 miles to drive around in Cleveland before even thinking about charging. With the Leaf I would make it about 2/3rds of the way before I would have to charge.

        • Note that there are a lot more CHAdeMO stations than CCS fast charging stations. I practical terms, that often means no extra convenience on the Bolt side.

          Not saying that’s all or even most cases (would have to be a pretty big study to quantify that), but it’s important to keep in mind and look at if you are considering these cars.

        • Fair point. The Bolt will give you a ~100 mile advantage over the Leaf in the common case of charging overnight before the road trip, which gives it better (rather than just slightly better) road trip value than the Leaf.

          I guess I was focusing on the long road trip case, in which the initial advantage is swamped by the charging stop times. (Like fixed vs variable costs.)

    • Reasonable criticism. So take your wife’s car, or wait for the Tesla 3, or wise up and move out of Spokane.
      And all kidding aside, isn’t Chevy going to have fast charging stations?

      • Chevy will have fast charging stations. If someone else builds them.

        At this point in time Chevy seems to be relying on the kindness of strangers….

        • For EV’s to becoming widely accepted it will be required for strangers to get involved. Even for Tesla having Super Chargers is more to help sell the product than to provide a service to the user.

          • Of course the Supercharger system helps sell Teslas.

            Which do you think people would want to buy more, an EV that would take an hour to charge (if you could find that brand’s rapid chargers) or an EV than can be charged in half an hour from one of thousands of charging bays already in place?

          • I don’t understand how people continuously neglect this comparison.

            Either they aren’t aware of the difference? Or they are just trolling (for fun or pay)?

        • Oh well, we can always take the streetcar if we need to go somewhere….

    • The way you take a long trip with a Bolt is to charge it up fully. Drive 200 miles. Pull over to the shoulder, get out, then stand at the side of the road with your thumb out. (;oD)

  • Implied anti Tesla bias here. Analyst had no reason whatsoever to say “not months but years”. To me, “years” means at least two years. I can find no rationale for him to state that this will happen as if it were a known fact.
    There is no reason to assume that Tesla will deliver late, any more than he should assume that the Bolt will be late. The Bolt is due late 2016, the Tesla late 2017. That’s one year, according to my admittedly limited math skills.
    While not nearly as egregious, it did remind me of the hatchet job that the N.Y. Times guy tried to do on his NY to Boston Tesla S test drive a while back. He was an Exxon stooge.

    • “There is no reason to assume that Tesla will deliver late, any more than he should assume that the Bolt will be late. ”

      Only the product release history of both companies.

      • GM is still not offering the new Volt in a lot of places, that was supposed to be out last year.

      • GM has never offered an all electric car. Let’s see if it is on time.

        • Your knowledge of GM appears limited

          • EV1

          • Capitulation accepted.

          • GM has already offered an electric car. It is called the Spark EV, even though it has limited availability. GMs brass says the Bolt will be out this year and I talked to a GM rep at Earth Day and she said that the Bolt will definitely be out in October.

            I guess we’ll have to wait and see if that’s true.

    • Given GM history of delivery vehicles and the fact they have pre production vehicles going down the line there is no reason to not believe their date. Tesla on the other hand has limited funds, backlog on current vehicles and questionable large scale manufacturing knowledge. Just because you have a factory with equipment doesn’t mean you can build a car.

      • What do you mean by “Just because you have a factory with equipment doesn’t mean you can build a car.”?
        They are already successfully making cars. The S is the best automobile that consumer reports ever tested. So they have a history of making history and changing the entire arc of the auto industry. You write as if you are referring to someone like Fiskar.
        Has Chevy ever produced an all electric car? Tesla has.
        And you seem to bypass my original point. The author states as fact that there is “years” difference in delivery dates. This is not true. He can speculate as to who will or won’t hit their target dates, but he is lying as he presents “years” as understood fact instead of his personal speculation that GM WILL hit their targets and Tesla WON’T hit their targets.
        Look, I give it a 50-50 chance that the 3 will ship on time. But that guy is off base saying that the Bolt will be “years” ahead of the 3.

  • I am about to buy an F-150 supercrew. I will have tons of space, and will be able haul over 2,000 lbs, and will have a towing capacity of almost 11,000 lbs.

    With all of the range anxiety that EV drivers have, I thought it would be best to order the extended range 36 gallon fuel tank, instead of the standard 23 gallon tank. At 21 mpg on the highway, probably more like 20 mpg for my highway driving, I’m looking at a 720-756 mile range. So, on my first long haul trip from Atlanta to New Orleans (towing my wife’s old Corolla to her parents), I will be able to make it there and over halfway back before I have to stop to refuel.

    Refueling will not even be a thought in the back of my mind. Blasting the AC and radio the whole time in the middle of summer won’t cross my mind, either.

    I don’t know why you EV idiots willingly complicate your lives by choosing to drive an EV.

    And as far as city driving goes, I will fill up maybe once every 3 1/2 weeks.

    Regarding fuel cost, I haven’t bought a gallon of gas in the last 3 years without getting $1 off per gallon at Kroger…yes, $1 off on every single gallon for the past 3 years. Lowest price I paid back in Jan/Feb was $0.549/gallon for a full 35 gallons…..total bill of $19.22

    Last I checked, electricity rates increase every year without fail.

    • Isn’t that sweet.

      Remember to tell your grandchildren how you did your part in gifting them with climate change. They’ll “appreciate” you for your efforts.

    • Make sure you wear an exact large man diaper to hold all that crap!

    • the same thing happens when there is a war on. For world war 2, the United States didn’t want to involve themselves in foreign wars, and probably rightly so. but when the United States was attacked at Pearl Harbor and German U-boats were hitting US ships in the Gulf of Mexico, the US realized it wasn’t a foreign war anymore, it was us too.

      At some point people realize that Global Warming is us too, although it takes longer for people who hate all government and people who make their living with the sale of carbon fuels. That is why so many don’t think it is not us humans problems, we’ll put our head in the sand and laugh at those who are serious thinking on this issue. Global Warming should be considered an us too problem.

    • You seem lost:-).

      I am sure there are websites catering to the rolling coal crowd and you might want to visit them. Every one is going to diss you here.

    • “I don’t know why you EV idiots willingly complicate your lives by choosing to drive an EV.”
      Because we like where we live and don’t want to destroy it. I imagine you’re not 85 so you will have to live here for quite a while, too. Why would you destroy the place where you live? Seems like you’re not able to think a few years into the feature. Such a pity.

    • No wonder you need that Furd F-Teenthousand… got to have something massive to haul around all that extra weight you’re packing on by buying enough LIttle Debbie and lard to get Kroger points sufficient to see a $1/gal discount every time.

      Yes, I realize you could be buying a bunch of Old Navy gift cards when they have a 5x points GC sale to send to orphanages to clothe the children, or you could be buying pallets of canned goods to deliver to food banks (hello, towing capacity!). But I bet you’re not. You’re going to get the types of responses you request with your tone. 🙂

      • Yes, I realize you could be buying a bunch of Old Navy gift cards when they have a 5x points GC sale to send to orphanages to clothe the children, or you could be buying pallets of canned goods to deliver to food banks. But I bet you’re not.

        Wow. Outstanding virtue signalling, Mr. Menius. Now everyone knows that you are way better than Fred. Because orphanages and food banks.

        • So close, except you’ve made a grave error in reasoning. One’s submission of a statement in no way implies that it is indicative of their own behavior, tendencies, or beliefs.

          … or, in simpler terms, it’s hyperbole- for the sake of countering Fred’s own hyperbole, no less.

    • 1) EVs combat a hastening threat to the human species.

      2) EVs are more enjoyable to drive (funner, quieter, smoother).

      3) EVs are more convenient ~90% of the time, trumping the ~10% of time they are less convenient.

      4) Oil wars suck.

      5) Oil prices fluctuate tremendously, and are a pain in the wallet most places compared to electricity.

      6) Going to the mechanic is annoying and costly.

      7) the list goes on… but I’m guess that you aren’t looking for a rational discussion.

    • Way to go Fred, keep living the dream. Nothing wrong with sitting this one out, we early adopters pretty much come to expect that from Southerners. By the way, they have these things called solar panels, you bolt’em to your roof and they convert sunlight into electricity that can power your home. Look into it, it might lower your electricity bill.

      • “Nothing wrong with sitting this one out, we early adopters pretty much come to expect that from Southerners.”
        — lol. sadly…

        • Yeah. Southerners are so dumb and you Northerners are so darned smart, driving around in your coal powered cars and all. You should be very proud of yourselves. Really, why do we even let Southerners have rights when it’s you super smart Northerners who should be running the world and ordering everyone about. One could even describe you as the vanguard of the proletariat, you’re so advanced.

    • “on my first long haul trip from Atlanta to New Orleans (towing my wife’s
      old Corolla to her parents), I will be able to make it there and over
      halfway back before I have to stop to refuel.”

      Better check your math again.

      No way will you get 21 mpg while towing another car (if ever). #RangeAnxiety

    • When you get that truck, fire it up, stick your face right up close to the tailpipe, take a deep breath, then think to yourself “now THAT’s some sweet exhaust right there”

      or, maybe start wondering whether there are any alternatives.

    • Fred, Kroger is ripping you off. The rest of us have been getting TWO dollars a gallon off of every single gallon from Safeway for FIVE years. The lowest price WE paid was minus $0.449/gallon. Get it together, dude.

  • Although I am pretty neutral between car manufacturer, but in my humble opinion, Chevy Bolt has an uphill battle to climb to success with its price point and imminent availability of Tesla Model 3.

    That being said, It may do well with fleet sales, and two year leases.

    Still, good luck and kudos to GM. They are moving the EV cause forward. I wish them success.

    • “That being said, It may do well with fleet sales, and two year leases.”
      -Yes, agreed.

      • You laugh at fleet sales and make it seem unimportant, but fleets sales could make the Bolt the best selling car. And as people see it, they’ll want it – it hasn’t hurt the Camry sales.

        • It’s going to be hard for the Bolt to be the best selling EV if GM isn’t prepared to produce as many Bolts as Tesla Mod 3s.

          A wise person wouldn’t sell Tesla short. They have produced the Roadster, Mod S, Mod X, Powerwall, and Powerpack. They have a large scale rapid charging system and destination chargers in place. They are starting to produce battery packs in what will very soon be the largest battery factory in the world.

          GM is attempting to move from T-ball to softball. Tesla is playing hardball.

          • Wholehearted agreement. One might feel differently if GM WANTED to make EVs. But they don’t.

        • not sure why you say I’m laughing. I agreed with the statement, and think it can be a strong segment.

  • I have only owned 1 Chevy and it was a POS but based on reports I have seen that time frame Chevy was making POS vehicles. But if I was in the Market to buy an EV now I would be holding out for the Chevy Bolt.

  • They’ll be lucky to sell 10k in the first year. The better prediction to make is how soon will the price drop come, I’m record for within 8 months.

    • Hmm, interesting thoughts.

      I will very eagerly be watching and reporting on the sales & price changes!

  • I like the Chevy Bolt and think it will sell well.

    • Me too. I just wish GM sucked it up and incorporated Supercharging.

  • GM, the auto company blamed for killing the electric car, is the company giving Tesla it’s most serious competition and nobody is more thrilled than Elon Musk

  • I would like to replace my 2DR Escort that I’ve been driving since ’97 with an EV. So, I’ll be closely watching the EV landscape in the next 1-2 years. I would like to see Tesla succeed and also hope the the 2nd generation Leaf pans out as well.

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