What’s To Come In “Part 2” Of Tesla Model 3 Reveal?
Originally published on EV Obsession.
While we only just got to experience “Part 1” of the Tesla Model 3 reveal on March 31, and “Part 2” is still probably at least a year (or more) away, speculation about what remains to be revealed has been going very strong. That’s understandable enough, after one puts a $1000 deposit down, and then has their expectations exceeded, but still has to wait ~2 more years, what else are they going to do?
So, in the spirit of pure speculation (and nothing more), let’s go over what we know so far. A recent tweet from Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk seems to confirm what many have been guessing about a link between the relatively spare design of the Model 3 interior and the company’s plans for fully autonomous driving (Level 4 autonomous technology).
@BValvsRacing It will make sense after part 2 of the Model 3 unveil
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 3, 2016
Musk was previously publicly quoted as saying that he expects fully autonomous driving to be a technical possibility by 2018. He even went as far as to state that it would be technically possible for one to summon their Tesla from one coast to the other (eg from New York to California) by 2018. (He did add that regulatory hurdles might hold up deployment.)
So, all of this considered, it seems a fair bet that the future of the company’s autonomous technology will feature prominently in Part 2 of the Model 3 reveal.
Other likely topics include: specifics as far as battery-pack size choices, pricing, performance specs, Supercharger access (Free? Or not?), etc. It also seems likely that a more developed timeline for the expected production ramp-up will be revealed as well.
I’m curious to hear what other people think will be revealed at Part 2 of the Model 3 reveal. Any other ideas?
Considering what a seemingly game-changing event Part 1 of the reveal has been, who even knows at this point. Personally I had been expecting 150,000 to 200,000 reservations in the days following the reveal — I’m a bit surprised at how high the reservation numbers have gotten, and at how much media coverage the Model 3 has been getting.
Reprinted with permission.
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Since we’re speculating, I think that explaining the spare interior of the prototype with autonomous driving is a bit optimistic for this generation of the technology. My personal guess (and hope) is that the vehicle will have a driver HUD. The large display was adapted from aviation and an advanced HUD is a natural evolution of that trend.
I agree. Even if fully autonomous driving would be technically possible by that time (which I have concerns about because of the many corner cases), keep in mind that Tesla clearly stated that AP convenience features are an option, not standard.
Not to mention that during part 1 it has been made clear that ‘only’ the Autopilot safety features will be standard.
Another point is that although many current drivers are comfortable with AP. Most new Tesla customers are not, so having a car (a sporty one) that is mainly going to be used autonomous driving does not yet make sense for a lot of people.
Which brings me to the point where I fail to reconciliate the 0-100 speed and having to look sideways to see how fast you’re going.
I’m thinking HUD. Also, when you’re going fast enough, you don’t have time to look at even a normal dashboard.
Perhaps they’ll integrate the HUD into the windshield to maintain minimalism
I’m confident that full autonomy will be a possible option with the model 3 and the whole lineup, possibly with a hardware upgrade. Keep in mind, they don’t have to have it ready at launch. They can sell the full autonomy package, then release the update later.
The reservations are INSANELY high. Like 4 and 5 times higher than I thought they would be. Earlier today I set myself a goal to afford one myself. Crossing my fingers for the next year or two :P…
Part 2 will explain the pricing of all options- autopilot, P, D, extra battery, etc, as well as the finished interior. My guess is a fully optioned out model 3 will be around $60k, and the interior will be a little more “normal” than what was shown, but the steering wheel will most likely have some sort of display on it, or there will be a HUD in front of it.
The $60k version includes cranial implants for the driver.
Car data will be sent directly to the brain….
I am sure Nissan have an urgent plan to react on Model3, how come they will stick to a model(Leaf) that have same price as Model3 and half performance! they are not that stupide.
Well, if they don’t now, they will soon…
Or they they cancel electrification at all
I don’t think that’s a move Nissan wants to make, as it’s a move towards irrelevance, and I think Ghosn knows that.
I don’t think Nissan cam complete with Tesla on innovation but they can compete in price. Who would by Leaf or Bolt for 35K when they can get Tesla. If I can get Leaf basic model for 20K that is different story.
I am not sure about what others might think, but I tend to think that the Model 3 launch has and will have a dramatic negative affect on the buying intentions of those that were thinking about purchasing an S / X. As a consequence, and as ludicrous as this might sound, I think the Part 2 announcement might also reveal a major price reduction in both the S and X, and in addition, and so that early adopters don’t become disenfranchised, Elon might even provide them with a modest cash rebate or a specific deep discount on a Model 3, so as to reward them for their loyalty. If Tesla did this then just imagine the potential reaction and groundswell of support. If a significant price reduction was to occur then they would presumably maintain current production volumes (vitally important for their cashflow) and they would surely blow the competition out of the water as people would truly see Tesla as a force for good and not greed. Am I dreaming? Perhaps, but then I would hate to see Tesla face a self impose buying drought until the Model 3 is released and / or where other manufacturers enter the frey to cease upon any buying slack. I know if they reduced the price of the X significantly then I for one would seriously consider relinquishing one of my Model 3 reservations to buy an X. However, I might just buy the X and keep the full reservation for another one if my children who might hopefully see the light as my eldest son has. Just a thought seeing how we are all speculating here 🙂
The only way to significantly lower the price of the X (whilst still making the profits required to build up capacity) would be to offer an option that dispenses with some of the superfluous design elements. Like the wing doors, mega-windscreen, aircraft seats and biohazard filter.
I know many people who would be very happy to pay somewhere around $65k for a car like that, and it would seem like a bargain.
As an added bonus, the company would probably make MORE profit per vehicle, as they’d be much quicker and easier to assemble. And neither the company nor the buyers would have to worry about long term warranty issues with novelty parts.
#OptionTheDoors
Unless you live in China, where the air is nearly flammable, I don’t see the need to the ridiculous air filter. It just seems expensive.
Yup. I suspect the X is going to do remarkably well in China.
From what I can understand, there is a strong cultural preference for ostentation by the newly successful. Of which there are many.
And it makes sense to have that giant filter in their horribly polluted cities.
But for the rest of us? It’s just an expensive consumable to replace every 15,000 km (or whatever). Does anyone know how much the super-duper filter would cost to replace? And what the replacement cycle might be?
I’d rather use all that extra space for additional frunk storage. And all that extra money to option something more desirable.
Same thing with the wing doors. An obvious fit in a country where many people still have personal chauffeurs. All good. And by all means let them have what they want. As pay-extra
options. Which would allow them to brag even more about how much they
paid.
Indeed, the replacement cost and frequency of replacement does pose an interesting question Rob.
You don’t live in LA, CA.
Yes I agree Rob. I was never that fussed on the winged doors myself and some of the other trinkets also but I would like an SUV and the ability to tow also, which the X has been expressly built for. Given that they are already geared up for the production of the current models it would seem to make better sense just to reduce the price outright in the first instance in order to maintain current momentum. However, I could stand corrected and the Mod 3 release might not have a negative effect on the continued uptake of current models.
Model S is a good deal compared to the competition – i.e. Model S is not over priced, it is a bargain compared to Merc, BMW, Audi, Cad, Lexus, etc.
It is the world’s safest car, fastest Sedan, Most storage, most seating – other wise it won’t have out sold every other Luxury Sedan.
G’day Brandon. Unfortunately, and not withstanding the many benefits of the S and X that you have cited, the fact remains that the price of the S alone remains prohibitively expensive here in OZ, with a 70Kw rear wheel drive stock standard only S costing a bear minimum of $A123,245 here in the Australian Capital Territory (I.e. The ACT being the least expensive of all the States). On top of this, Ozzie buyers do not have the added benefit of any of the incentives that are enjoyed by other jurisdictions such as the $7500 US tax credit. On this basis I whole heartily agree with Rob that a $65,000 Model X would be the ticket at that price.
I hope it has a sidestick instead of a steering wheel. How awesome would that be? I know it’s been attempted before, but I bet Tesla can get it right this time, with variable ratio electric steering and all.
wireless charging will easily enable summon from coast to coast. all the car would have to do is park (forward or reverse) over the induction pads. also the wireless pads are far safer to vandalism or accidental destruction (snow plows etc) since they could be flush or slightly recessed to the ground. also with air suspension enabled you could lower your car in park mode for a higher efficiency of charge. Who knows? it might even be cheaper for them to install a wireless charger than the Tesla power stations since they wouldn’t require any pretty post etc. just a flush piece of hardware underground
Wireless charging is not efficient at all. It’d cost more and take longer to charge.
Wireless charging is well over 90% efficient.
The extra cost in terms of electricity lost would be affordable if it gets more people out of gasmobiles and into EVs.
You cannot even say an efficiency with accuracy because it depends on the distance to the charging pads. You might be referring to the old Magne Charge system which was low power, 86% efficiency at best, and required the induction paddle to be inserted directly into the car. So when you are talking about trying to do induction charging over a distance of several inches there are huge losses in comparison. It’s basic physics.
Here’s a company claiming 91% at level 3 charge rates…
http://cleantechnica.com/2015/08/24/can-wireless-ev-charger-outperform-tesla-supercharger-regard-current-level-cost-effectiveness/
If we’re talking “supercharging” rates the space between sender and receiver could be minimal. Think a spring mounted sender where the car drives over the sender, depressing it, and leaving it in direct contact with the bottom of the vehicle.
—
Plugless is selling a system that is 93% efficient at slow charge (level 1) rates.
https://www.pluglesspower.com/plugless-questions/
You didn’t seem to finish reading the article you mentioned. The demoed system is 25 KW, that is FAR different than 120, 135 or even the 180/200 KW superchargers. All you’re citing is a theoretical paper (which is also advertisement for a company). I can show you a few papers on zero point energy if your interested in papers with no real world examples.
Here is your initial claim –
“Wireless charging is not efficient at all. It’d cost more and take longer to charge.”
Then later you say –
“You cannot even say an efficiency with accuracy because it depends on the distance to the charging pads.”
Then seemingly ignore the fact that the space between sender and receiver in a ‘supercharger’ system could be reduced to zero (except for the outer covering of the coils).
efficiency will always be less than a direct connection so I’m not contradicting myself at all.
Right……
physics for the win
Physics does win.
Moving the goalposts is not how the game is played.
It’s sad you cannot accept inductive charging at a distance is less efficient than direct contact … I feel bad for you.
Please don’t act like a jerk.
My very first comment on the issue was “Wireless charging is well over 90% efficient.” I did not say 100% efficient.
cronin Do keep in mind efficiency and cost was never a topic of this thread, it was “what’s to come in part 2 of the release” and there have already been pictures of Teslas wireless charging development. Also the Miles Per Dollar (MPD) for electricity is already much lower than gasoline so there is no cost relevance there and though I’m a proponent of efficiency, if you need your car to autonomously charge I’d like you to suggest a better method (cost and convenience)
Before Tesla announces the upgrade version of the model 3, they will upgrade the Model S and X to 100 kwh. They need to keep a distinct difference between these cars. If the model 3 has a version with 260 mile range, they need an S with over 300 miles. By the way, this is not mere speculation. The data in the present model S already has an encoded “P100” in it. This was hacked by Jason Hughes, who owns two Tesla’s and also spent a year removing the batteries of two wrecked Teslas for off grid storage at his home. He runs his upscale house and two Tesla model S off of a 46 kw PV array and a 192 kwh lithium battery.
Silly idea. People buy the size car they want/need/available/afford. Just buy the one you want – what a concept.
Tesla has dropped the 40 kwh model, raised the 60 to 70 raised the 85 to 90. They will go to 100, possibly to keep sales from the 3 from cannibalizing sales of the higher end S and X. The other motivator is to keep making exciting announcements almost quarterly. The stocks need propping, and they are masters of playing for time. It ain’t easy starting a multi billion dollar electric car company, every creative trick in the engineering book and the marketing and financing book has to be exploited.
Those reveals of cars that are almost two years away are the advertising. “Announcements” are modeled on Apple shows. And Musk “cares” alright. He came close to a break down before receiving a government loan which squeaked Tesla through a few years back. It came down to the wire. They don’t have to advertise like conventional car makers because they are riding the EV wave, they are fortunate for the time being.