Tesla Opens Up Model 3 Event To Owners Via Lottery
This afternoon, lucky Tesla owners around the world may have a surprise waiting for them in their email inbox — an invitation to the exclusive Model 3 unveiling on March 31st… in Los Angeles, CA! This confirms earlier indications from owners who won tickets by referring other buyers that the event will be in Southern California at the Hawthorne, CA, Design Studio — not Northern California at the Fremont Factory.
While it’s great to see the company loving on some of the early adopters of its Model S, I almost wish Tesla would just allow more media in, as the odds of winning a ticket are pretty slim. More media generally means better coverage and more awesome pics of what will hopefully be a real car.
The company has reserved 650 slots for owners and their guests, meaning there are actually only 325 winners from the pool of over 100,000. It’s not clear from the invite if they were sent out to owners in the region, owners in the US, or owners globally, but either way, the odds are not great.
Demand for this car is sure to be through the roof, and I’m expecting lines out the door and down the street and around the corner on the morning of the 31st. Looking at the profile in the invitation, it looks a lot like the Model S, and just a bit narrower and maybe a bit taller. Check out a few front shots of the Model S in the gallery at the bottom for comparison.
Don’t worry, though, I’ll take one for the team and volunteer as tribute. 😀 I obviously threw my hat into the ring and I’m hopeful, but I’m not holding my breath. At the end of it all, the company is sure to remind owners that if they win, more info will show up in the inbox. Check out the text from the lottery invite email and from the website after entering below:
From the invitation email:
We’re excited to share details of the Model 3 prototype unveiling at an intimate event in Los Angeles, CA for less than 800 people.
We want to share this with Tesla owners first, as a token of our appreciation for your support over the years. We’ve saved 650 places at the event for current owners including their guests.
Places will be allocated at random through a drawing on March 16. To enter, simply click below and register before noon PST on March 16 2016. You’ll need to use your MyTesla email address to ensure successful entry into the lottery. On March 17, official invitations will go out to those selected through the lottery.
Model 3 reservations will open in Tesla stores on March 31 at 10am PST, as well as online immediately when the event (which will also be accessible via a live stream) begins. As a current owner who has supported Tesla and our mission, your reservation will take priority and be placed ahead of non-owners.
Thanks again for your support. Good luck!
The Tesla Team
Lottery winners must register their attendance via RSVP. Upon confirmation of attendance, full event details will be shared. Invitations are non-transferable and are valid for one owner plus one guest. Guests are responsible for the cost of their travel to and from the event.
From the lottery website:
Enter to win a Model 3 unveil invitation
Los Angeles,CA
March 31
7:00 pm
Please sign up if you would like to attend the Model 3 unveil in Los Angeles, California on March 31, 2016. This offer is available to current Tesla owners and space is limited. Invitations will be randomly selected from those who register prior to noon Pacific time on March 16, 2016. Please use the email address linked to your Tesla account when registering.
Model 3 reservations will open to the public in Tesla stores at 10am Pacific on March 31st. A website live stream with online reservations will begin at 8:30pm Pacific the same day.
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Tesla shared a comparison graphic via Twitter:
https://twitter.com/TeslaMotors/status/709865605101301760
Man, I’m stoked. I really, really want to sign up for one, but I kinda dread having to wait the 1-2 years for it
It’s exciting and amazing. I’m almost tempted to get another one to replace our B-Class but my wife loves it as a commuter car. I’m really hoping someone comes out with battery pack upgrades in the next few years so we can upgrade it to a ~300 mile range pack for a few thousand bucks in 5 years or so.
Unfortunately, the Model 3 in that picture is just a darkened outline of the Model S on the left. Yes, I confirmed this in Photoshop.
Tesla’s keeping this real close to the vest. 🙁
I took that graphic into photoshop and moved the model 3 outline over the model s and they match 100% exactly. So the graphic is meaningless for giving us any hints, unless the hint is it will look exactly like model s.
Oh dang…you totally just proved that my eyes are terrible lol.
Mine to, i swear it looks smaller but apparently that is only because we know it is reportedly a smaller version of the Model S.
I think that’s also because it’s solid black, which tends to look smaller.
Yeah, the right side shows Model S in a Little Black Dress.
Exactly. A very powerful optical illusion.
What if the Model 3 was a base Model S with a 50kwh battery for $35k…and a P100D. I’m having trouble making sense of this…I just hope the “Model 3” isn’t just new versions of the Model S…unless it’s $35k. Meh…this scrambles my brain.
Remember that they only announced they moved staff from Model X to Model 3 like 4 months ago and that Elon claimed Model 3 would be built from the ground up as a simpler vehicle without parts from Model S. If that’s really true, to think they actually have a working car to show at this point seems unlikely. Heck, to think they can move to full production within a year seems unlikely, but that’s another story. I think they’re just going to be announcing firm specs, features, and pricing at this event. There’ll probably be concept art, maybe even a vehicle mock up at best… but not a working car.
That’s my sense anyway. As to the silhouette, I think they just don’t want to even give us that at this point. Either to surprise us, or because the car shape still isn’t 100% certain.
They really ought to have a working car at this point. The stock will take a huge hit if they don’t. Note that I don’t expect them to have a *complete* car or a *final* car.
The Model S “alpha” was a driveable protoype which was on the roads in 2010 (two years before Model S was delivered in 2012). It had a completely half-assed incomplete interior with loose wires hanging out and *totally* inappropriate seats. It had a different rear end and it had a “gas tank” style charge port door.
Before that there was the first driveable prototype, which had even more differences from the alpha, including a stupid center console!
Anyway, I expect Tesla to have a driveable prototype but NOT a final version.
I just read elsewhere that the press release said there would be a drivable prototype, so I think you’re right.
On the other hand, I got he impression that Model 3 design hadn’t really started until 4-5 months ago which is why a drivable prototype seems impossible… I suspect my impression is wrong and they’ve been working on it for much longer. Sure hope so!
Don’t you think they’ve been working on the Mod3 for years? From the moment they decided to first build a luxury car and then a more affordable model I suspect they’ve worked on the Mod3. If fact, IIRC, it was called the “Blue” years back when it was being developed.
The only question I would have at this time is whether they have made the sheet metal molds for the body. I’m pretty sure they’ve had mules on the track for a year or more testing out the battery pack, motor and electronics. They’ve done the modeling necessary to determine the interior design and how best to wrap it in an aerodynamic package.
I suspect they’ve left themselves some wiggle room in the final design simply because they can’t start manufacturing until the Gigafactory is ready to spit out battery packs. At some point they will have to pull the trigger and settle on the final design but that might not be necessary for a few more months.
It seems likely they’ve had a small group working on M3 for years but we really don’t know. Judging by how many years the X was delayed and how they’ve had to pull people from service centers to ramp up production of S during crunch times, and they have over a thousand jobs posted on their web site, they’re obviously very strained on manpower. If they’re willing to pull repair techs it must have been hard not to also pull people working on M3 to work on X or ramp production or whatever else. Thus I can easily imagine them having made little progress on M3 until X was done.
The thing is, if they would just make M3 a simplified, scaled-down version of S and reuse as many S parts as possible, it seems they could get it done much faster than X. Yet Elon said it was going to be a complete redesign. So how can they do a complete redesign so quickly when X was built on the S body and took years? I don’t know. Either “complete redesign” is an exaggeration or they’ve secretly had a fairly large team working on M3 for years and have managed to not distract that team with X production and whatever else. Or they’re going to seriously miss their 2017 deadline.
Hard to say, but the the S was the first car that they had ever built. Now they have experience and have brought in more people from the outside who have backgrounds which will help.
I have no idea how many people it takes to design a new car. But I’d bet there’s been a team working on the basics from before the S went into production.
Wasn’t the largest problem for the X the falcon wing doors? The company that was to build them couldn’t and the job had to be turned over to another company is what I remember.
Reminiscent of the Roadster drivetrain problem. Tesla contracted with one of the major transmission manufacturers and the units delivered wouldn’t hold up under the engine torque.
Anyway, I’m getting tired of guessing about the Mod3. It’s about time to get some facts and get on to a new set of speculations.
People have built prototype cars in small workshops with small teams of friends/coworkers within similar time-frames.
In fact, I’m pretty sure there are professional “shops” who can put together a hand-built prototype in a few months if enough money changes hands. Much of the process nowadays is digitised.
Right – they’ve been working on the Model 3 for quite some time. They just moved *additional* staff from the X to the 3 once work on the X was completed.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a pretty final design in two weeks (but I wouldn’t really expect it either…)
I think it’s just the graphics people doing something quickly/simply and Tesla not wanting any clues out there yet.
That is a Model S silhouette, unmodified. So no actual clues regarding the shape or size of Model 3.
To my eyes (which are often very wrong…recall the recent Ford reveal of a racing version of the Fusion which I thought was an SUV), it looks a bit taller and narrower than the S in the pic from the tweet.
We measured. 😛 It’s literally an S silhouette.
Since I don’t think a high percentage of Tesla owners outside of the Socal area are going to be willing to travel to the event, I think the odds are much higher than 350 out of 100,000. I got the email today at 3:15pm and the deadline to enter the lottery is tomorrow at noon! So a whole lot of people will simply miss the entry window.
Of course socal is probably the highest concentration of Tesla owners in the US but I think the odds of winning will be 1 in 10 or better (yes that’s a wild guess).
Hey, that works for me 🙂 1 in 10 would be awesome but still means it’s going to be a long shot. Should be a neat event…if only to say “I was there” when the modern day equivalent of the Model T is first revealed to the public.
That’s not fair ,it you not a T owner
I suppose Tesla is just showing some love to the people that showed them some love.
Being in Australia, and not actually owning a Model S or X (I’m waiting for the Y)… I did not receive an invitation in my inbox this morning, BUT… I did receive a different email from Tesla that most people probably have not seen as yet… A link to a survey asking lots of questions about my home (Solar panels, inverter type, power retailer, and many more). All these questions were in relation to my early query about the Tesla Power Wall. I know of at least ONE person who has a PW installed (in Sydney) so I guess the rollout is now heading South to Melbourne (with any luck).
Good to know they’re actually responding to those early enquiries.
Submitted mine from South Africa months ago and waiting (less than) patiently for any kind of response…
How much would cut the price if is not paint on the car?just bare metal and some anticorrosive protection?
Polished aluminium would look awesome.
I am thinking 60kwh battery. The reason is, Tesla will not actually have to provide the batteries for at least two years in any volume. By that time the factory will be producing and the pack price will have fallen to perhaps $10,000. I don’t think Tesla wants to skimp on this central range issue. It needs to outclass the competition (the Bolt and new leaf) by a wide margin. I would expect an easy 225 mile range on the model 3. Almost nothing else really matters in the public consciousness.
UPDATE: A sudden revision of my cost estimate. Fresh update from GTM. Tesla battery packs (yes packs not cells) to hit $100 kwh. So a 60 kwh pack $6000! This is an update just this morning and I hope the article appears on Cleantechnica as well. In fact the article suggests that prices are going lower than $100kwh!!
“Many of these trends are reflected in Argonne Lab’s model for battery
costs, which is a gold standard in the industry and is called BatPaC.”
BatPaC version 2 was released in December 2012 and showed Tesla-type
batteries costing $163/kWh for 90-kWh packs at 500,000 per year. In
December 2015, BatPaC version 3 was released, showing $109/kWh. The next
version of BatPaC could easily predict prices below $100/kWh, in
accordance with predictions by Baird and others.” (From GTM article).
Here’s the GTM link –
http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/How-Soon-Can-Tesla-Get-Battery-Cell-Cost-Below-100-per-Kilowatt-Hour
The article also talks about purchase price parity by 2021.
If that happens the ICEV will join the walking dead in the next five years.
I think there will be some weird market segmentation for quite a long time, where used ICEs, and possibly even some ultra-cheap new ICEs, will survive at the low-low end of the market. (The “we have no credit and no cash and we can’t afford to buy a used electric car, even though we want to” market.) This won’t end until all the gas stations close and there’s nowhere to fuel them. It’s sort of like the survival of pre-catalytic-converter cars which required leaded gasoline, which hung on *much* longer than they should have — 15 years longer. I was still seeing them in the mid-1990s.
But the upper end of the ICE market will be completely wiped out fast, and so will the middle segment. As I’ve said before, ICE cars are now an “inferior good”, purchased only by people who can’t afford to buy better cars.
—-
I actually think that article is a bit optimistic; I expect battery pack costs more like $120/kwh ithan $100/kwh in 2021. This is still enough to destroy the EU ICE market completely, and the premium over ICE cars in the US will be low enough that it’ll destroy most of the US ICE market too, since people will pay a premium for the better experience of driving electric.
If you’re buying an older ICEV you’re also risking repair bills. Add to that the cost of fuel and maintenance.
Penny wise buyers may purchase (deeply discounted) ICEVs but value shoppers are likely to pay a premium for a used EV/PHEV, lock themselves into a steady monthly payment and fewer surprises.
The first task is to convert the new car market to plug ins. The used car market will follow. If we can flip the new car market by 2025 there should be no problem getting 95% of all ICEVs off the road by 2045.
I suspect something that most of us have not considered is the possibility of battery materials dropping in price as demand rises. Economy of scale stuff.
If battery pack prices do drop below $100/kWh that will open the gates for EV econoboxes with Leaf-type ranges. Great second, third car options for many households. Especially if rapid chargers become readily available. Make it reasonable to double the range with a 20 -30 minute charge for those rare times one needs to drive further.
A new EV selling for under $20k is going to force a lot of used ICEVs off the road when it’s 10 years old.
I used unlead in a car that required leaded gas. I found a lead additive I would add sometimes to stop knocks and pings.
The 2021 timeline even looks pessimistic…somewhat based on cheap gas prices I suppose. Notice the European timeline gets parity with ICE at $159 kwh. The American gets parity at just under $100 kwh. If you imagine a 100 kwh Tesla bank installed for $10,000 it seems difficult to compete with.
I agree they’re certainly going to match the Bolt’s 60kw at minimum. 200 range is the bare minimum at which you can get between superchargers in all areas, but with a 60kw battery you have to charge to 95% or more to make it in some places. Having to wait about twice as long to charge to 95% instead of 80% greatly reduces the convenience so the supercharger network really works best with 85kw or greater cars. I wouldn’t be surprised if Model 3 hit at least that mark.
I’m going to place my bet for 65 kwh being the base battery size. Tesla found with the Model S that “60” was too low to be popular but “70” was high enough to be popular. With a lighter-weight car, “65” should get range similar to the S70, and beat the Bolt.
Smaller car…but made from steel vs aluminum. I’m going with 70kWh.
Regarding the Bolt…just the fact that it’s a Tesla and not a Chevy beats it, even if the range is lower. Having said that, I agree that Tesla will shoot for more range than the Bolt. Chevy made a big jump with the Bolt (or is ready to) but they really need to work on their designs, service model and charging infrastructure if they want to compete with Tesla. The “we don’t care about the public charging infrastructure” just doesn’t hold water in the face of the Model 3…
The 70 kWh Tesla S had decent range. If this car is 20% smaller it probably drops weight more than 20% and reduces drag considerably.
20% of 70 kWh is 56 kWh. A smaller battery pack also reduces vehicle weight. I’m thinking closer to 50 kWh.
Smaller body but steel instead of aluminum… I think someone needs to do the math to determine if that will turn out lighter, heavier, or about the same as S.
There have been some new steel formulations lately. The steel/aluminum weight difference might be shrinking.
Don’t overlook how much less a smaller battery pack weighs. Lower the volume of batteries lowers the need for as many batteries. Batteries make up about 25% of the Tesla S weight?
So, did anyone win the lottery? It’s 9:22pm and I haven’t seen an invite yet so it’s looking pretty unlikely. Unless the departure of their chief spokesman Ricardo Reyes has delayed the drawing. Or perhaps he was fired for leaving the drawing to the last minute! So many things to wonder…
So….it Sunday evening at 7:00 PM on the West Coast. I have two local Tesla friends who have “sorry, you lost” emails from Tesla. Do we know if anyone has an actual invitation yet??