Solar PV manufacturing capacity expansion announcements topped 55 GW in 2015, according to new analysis from PV Tech.
According to Mark Osborne, Senior News Editor at PV Tech, PV manufacturing capacity expansion announcements in 2015 more than doubled, from 21 GW in 2014 to 55.19 GW in 2015. However, as Osborne makes abundantly clear in his analysis, this figure cannot be taken at face value, as it “is all inclusive,” including everything from valid announcements to unlikely Memorandums of Understanding (MOU) and Letters of Intent (LOI).
Subsequently, PV Tech eliminates over 15 GW worth of announcements in 2015 “that failed validity tests, at this time” and a further 10.7 GW when “only counting initial phase capacity expansions.” Thus, “the most realistic figure of announcements in 2015 that could potentially migrate to effective capacity over the next 12 to 24 months” sits at around 29 GW.
PV Tech also reappraised November’s record level of announcements, seen below as sitting around the 25 GW mark.
According to PV Tech, preliminary figures in November reported over 17 GW worth of announcements, which then grew an extra 7.7 GW to sit at over 25 GW. However, PV Tech found that some of these announcements were already previously announced, and some represented “phantom capacity due to outsourcing and the inclusion of small-scale initial phase capacity attached to multiple gigawatt future phased expansions with uncertain timelines.”
Thus, a more realistic figure from November cuts 11 GW and brings it down to around 14 GW.
Mark Osborne’s full analysis, available here, digs deeper into the industry’s sub-sectors, regional shifts, and individual in-depth analysis of each listed-company’s plans announced in November.