Cars

Published on February 2nd, 2016 | by James Ayre

11

Tesla Model X January Delivery Estimates (Speculating)

February 2nd, 2016 by  


Originally published on EV Obsession.

With Tesla Model X production now beginning to really pick up, some people are beginning to try and methodically determine the actual rate of production — and thus monthly estimates — using the bits that we know (VINs, etc).

5 Hot Tesla Model X VideosWhile such estimates are of course tentative, and occasionally wrong, those of us who have become a bit obsessed with Tesla over these last few years perhaps can’t stop ourselves. On that note, the commentator “AdamSM” on the Tesla Motors Club forum recently began a discussion thread attempting to estimate Model X production numbers for January that we think is worth a look. Here’s what he had to say:

So, we now have enough information to make some very rough estimates of January Model X production. We know that in December, they produced 507 Model Xs. As of January 30, 2016, they have produced at least 444 (approximately) production Model Xs (because people at the event last night reported that production engineers said that they produce Model Xs in roughly VIN order, and 444 was a VIN of one of the display production Model Xs). That means that they have probably produced a minimum of something like 1200 Sigs (could be more like 1000, we don’t really know; the highest reported VIN on modelxtracker.com is 897), plus 60ish Founders, plus around 450 production Model Xs total. They may have produced some more production Model Xs; there are people with VINs up to 807 on the tracker, although VINs may be assigned before production begins, and are almost certainly assigned before production is completed.

So, if we assume 1000 Sigs + 60 Founders + 450 production, that’s a minimum of a total of 1510 Model Xs produced (not delivered, of course, but produced), of which right around 1000 would have been produced during January. An upper bound might be assuming 1200 Sigs, plus 60 Founders, plus 900 production, which would be 2160 total, or 1600 and change during January. (I think the actual number would be closer to the lower bound than the upper, but I figured I’d calculate both). So I think that they averaged about 250-300 Model Xs per week in January (right in the neighborhood of the “238 per week” from the announcement about Q4 production, but with a little bit of a ramp from that production rate).

As CEO Elon Musk has previously revealed that the ramp up period for the Model X would be fairly rapid — with production numbers matching those of the Model S relatively “soon” — one would assume that the final weeks of January saw a notably higher rate of production than the earlier weeks.

Also worth noting here — as commenter “vgrinshpun” reminded — is that Tesla generally seems to shut production down during the first week of January. If this happened in 2016, this means, of course, that most of the production occurred during the middle and end of the month.

Wondering how accurate any of this ends up being? It seems pretty on the ball theoretically, but who knows as of right now?






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About the Author

's background is predominantly in geopolitics and history, but he has an obsessive interest in pretty much everything. After an early life spent in the Imperial Free City of Dortmund, James followed the river Ruhr to Cofbuokheim, where he attended the University of Astnide. And where he also briefly considered entering the coal mining business. He currently writes for a living, on a broad variety of subjects, ranging from science, to politics, to military history, to renewable energy. You can follow his work on Google+.



  • vperl

    I can guarenttee the foks that deposited 5k or more two or more years , the Model X to be “Coming Soon”.

    Asked and answered.

    • haha

    • jookyposter

      5k deposit 2 years ago last week. “Mid-summer 2016” after placing the actual order (no VIN yet). Here’s hoping.

  • Mac1177

    Ordered a 90D, confirmed Jan 11. Order # 13xxx. Have been told by our Tesla contact mid 2016 delivery. I hope that means June.

    • ROBwithaB

      How long ago did you order?

      • Mac1177

        Sorry. Your message could not be delivered to:

        Pat McDaniel (Message was rejected by the recipient.)

        CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE: This message, including any attachments, is for the sole use of the intended recipients and may contain confidential and privileged information. Any unauthorized review, use, disclosure, or distribution is prohibited. If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender by reply e-mail and destroy all copies of the original message.

    • vperl

      Think earliest Sept. Hopefully this year.

      My reservation # is half of yours and was told same thing.

      “Coming Soon”, for sure

      • Mac1177

        Sorry. Your message could not be delivered to:

        Pat McDaniel (Message was rejected by the recipient.)

        CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE: This message, including any attachments, is for the sole use of the intended recipients and may contain confidential and privileged information. Any unauthorized review, use, disclosure, or distribution is prohibited. If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender by reply e-mail and destroy all copies of the original message.

  • Kraylin

    Thank you for putting (speculating) right in the title. I have been anxiously awaiting news on Model X production/delivery numbers and I wholeheartedly appreciate the heads up that what I was about to read was speculation.

    I look forward to the next (not speculating) article! =)

  • Kyle Field

    I’m excited to hear an update on the earnings call next week. If these estimates are accurate and they feel about right…AND Tesla is shipping anywhere close to those numbers, stock is going to be back over 220 again overnight if not higher.

    • Otis11

      … I was just considering putting my “new car” fund in Tesla stock (thought it would be appropriate). But not so sure it’s going to jump so soon with all of the other instabilities in the market right now…

      Long run is a different story, however.

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